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Assessing conservation risks to populations of an anadromous Arctic salmonid, the northern Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma malma), via estimates of effective and census population sizes and approximate Bayesian computation

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Abstract

Census population size (N c ) is crucial to the development of resource management strategies, however, monitoring the effective population size (N e ) of managed populations has proliferated because of this parameter’s relationship to the short-term impacts of genetic stochasticity and long-term population viability. Thus, having a sound understanding of both N c and N e , including population connectivity, provides valuable insights into both the demographic and genetic risks to extinction. Here, we assessed microsatellite DNA variation in four (of five known) anadromous northern Dolly Varden (NDV, Salvelinus malma malma) populations from Canada’s western Arctic region, to estimate N e using both temporal-based and single-sample estimators and to test for associations between N e and N c . We also employed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to evaluate several evolutionary scenarios that have potentially shaped contemporary population structure in this species, focusing particularly on population size and connectivity. We found evidence for moderate to large contemporary and historical N e , suggesting that short- and long-term extinction risks are low for these populations. Estimates of contemporary and long-term N e were variable within and among populations and overall estimates could not be reliably linked with N c or available spawning habitat. The overall estimate of N e /N c , was 0.152 and ranged from 0.024 to 0.442 when including errors around the estimate of N e and N c . Finally, ABC analyses suggest that NDV had a common origin followed by divergence in isolation while maintaining large effective sizes, but also that these populations were bottlenecked in the past, likely the result of post-glacial colonization processes. These results corroborate indications of limited gene flow at present, indicating independent demographic and evolutionary trajectories that imply NDV is best managed on a per-river-population basis. Overall, the results of this study further our general understanding of N e , N e /N c and demographic independence in NDV, and provide a comprehensive and quantitative assessment of the potential genetic and demographic risk status of Arctic anadromous salmonids, including baselines for future monitoring.

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Acknowledgements

This research was funded by the Fisheries Joint Management Committee, the Gwich’in Renewable Resource Board, Polar Continental Shelf Project, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) (including both regular and Genomics Research Development Initiative sources), Parks Canada and International Polar Year Chars and Climate Change project. We extend thanks to R. Fudge, B. McDonald, S. Sandstrom, multiple Gwich’in and Inuvialuit field assistants from Aklavik and Fort McPherson, the Aklavik Hunters and Trappers Committee and Ehdiitat Renewable Resource Council for assistance with sample collection and planning assistance and logistical coordination. We also thank the regional fishery managers (specifically V. Gillman, L. Dow, E. Lea and R. Allen) over the years for continuing to provide support for the project. Some computationally intensive analyses were run on the Linux cluster of the “Museum National d’Histoire Naturelle” (administrated by Julio Pedraza Acosta) and we thank L. Excoffier for advice regarding fastsimcoal simulations. The manuscript was greatly improved by the comments and suggestions of Robin Waples and two anonymous reviewers. Raw microsatellite data used for all analyses and the R code used for the ABC analyses are available from the Dryad Digital Repository: doi:10.5061/dryad.6nd54.

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    Authors and Affiliations

    1. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 501 University Crescent, Winnipeg, MB, R3T 2N6, Canada

      Les N. Harris, Robert Bajno, Colin P. Gallagher, Kimberly L. Howland & James D. Reist

    2. CNRS UMR 7206 Eco-anthropologie et Ethnobiologie, Equipe “Génétique des populations humaines”, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, Paris Cedex 05, France

      Friso P. Palstra

    3. Department of Zoology, Biodiversity Research Centre and Beaty Biodiversity Museum, University of British Columbia, 6270 University Blvd., Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada

      Eric B. Taylor

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    2. Friso P. Palstra
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    3. Robert Bajno
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    4. Colin P. Gallagher
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    5. Kimberly L. Howland
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    6. Eric B. Taylor
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    7. James D. Reist
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    Corresponding author

    Correspondence to Les N. Harris.

    Additional information

    Les N. Harris and Friso P. Palstra have contributed equally to this work.

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    Harris, L.N., Palstra, F.P., Bajno, R. et al. Assessing conservation risks to populations of an anadromous Arctic salmonid, the northern Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma malma), via estimates of effective and census population sizes and approximate Bayesian computation. Conserv Genet 18, 393–410 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10592-016-0915-5

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