Abstract
Traditional agricultural practices, including paddy farming on terraced uplands, have garnered renewed interest in recent years in response to increasing concerns on environmental sustainability and the expected effects of climate change on global food security. However, little systematic research on the potential vulnerabilities of these traditional agroecosystems to future climatic change has been conducted as most are located in remote areas with limited data availability. This paper is a case study on the Ifugao Rice Terraces of the Philippines, a centuries-old farming system whose success is dependent on the year-round allocation of water resources following an intricate agricultural cycle. We developed a site-specific hydrological model coupling the similar hydrologic element response (SHER) model for surface and vadose zone processes and the modular three-dimensional groundwater flow (MODFLOW) model for saturated groundwater movement to evaluate baseline conditions in a selected first-order catchment within the Kiangan terrace cluster. Output from the SHER–MODFLOW model showed good agreement with in situ observations of stream discharge and hydraulic head measured in 2014–2016. To elucidate the impacts of climate change, we downscaled future projections from three global climate models, MRI-CGCM3, GFDL-CM3, and UKMO-HadGEM3, under greenhouse gas concentration pathways RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5. We used these future climate projections with the calibrated SHER–MODFLOW model to evaluate the combined surface water and groundwater resources in 2041–2050 and 2091–2100. Results indicated trends of increasing temperature for all months, decreasing rainfall and increased risks of water deficits for future dry seasons, and increasing rainfall and increased risks of excess runoff for future wet seasons. These trends will be more pronounced at the end of the century. These results are important in evaluating the sustainability of this traditional agricultural system under climate change, and in designing appropriate local adaptation measures.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Acabado SB, Martin M (2016) The sacred and the secular: practical applications of water rituals in the Ifugao agricultural system. Trans Reg Nat Stud Southeast Asia 4:307–327. https://doi.org/10.1017/trn.2016.7
Acabado SB, Koller JM, Liu C-h, Lauer AJ, Farahani A, Barretto-Tesoro G, Reyes MC, Martin JA, Peterson JA (2019) The short history of the Ifugao Rice Terraces: A local response to the Spanish conquest. J Field Archaeol 44:195–214. https://doi.org/10.1080/00934690.2019.1574159
Agus F, Irawan I, Suganda H, Wahyunto W, Setiyanto A, Kundarto M (2006) Environmental multifunctionality of Indonesian agriculture. Paddy Water Environ 4:181–188. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-006-0047-5
Alessa L, Kliskey A, Gamble J, Fidel M, Beaujean G, Gosz J (2016) The role of Indigenous science and local knowledge in integrated observing systems: moving toward adaptive capacity indices and early warning systems. Sustain Sci 11:91–102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-015-0295-7
Alexander RB, Boyer EW, Smith RA, Schwarz GE, Moore RB (2007) The role of headwater streams in downstream water quality. J Am Water Resour Assoc 43:41–59. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2007.00005.x
Altieri MA, Nicholls CI (2017) The adaptation and mitigation potential of traditional agriculture in a changing climate. Clim Change 140:33–45. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0909-y
Araral E (2013) What makes socio-ecological systems robust? An institutional analysis of the 2,000 year-old Ifugao Society. Hum Ecol 41:859–870. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-013-9617-5
Arnáez J, Lana-Renault N, Lasanta T, Ruiz-Flaño P, Castroviejo J (2015) Effects of farming terraces on hydrological and geomorphological processes: a review. Catena 128:122–134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2015.01.021
Avtar R, Tsusaka K, Herath S (2019) REDD + implementation in community-based Muyong forest management in Ifugao, Philippines. Land 8:164. https://doi.org/10.3390/land8110164
Bantayan NC, Calderon MM, Dizon JT, Sajise AJU, Salvador MG (2012) Estimating the extent and damage of the UNESCO World Heritage Sites of the Ifugao. J Environ Sci Manag 15:1–5
Berkes F, Colding J, Folke C (2000) Rediscovery of traditional ecological knowledge as adaptive management. Ecol Appl 10:1251–1262
Beyer HO (1955) The origins and history of the Philippine Rice Terraces. In: Proceedings of the eighth pacific science congress. National Research Council of the Philippines, Quezon City, Philippines,
Bullock JM, Dhanjal-Adams KL, Milne A, Oliver TH, Todman LC, Whitmore AP, Pywell RF (2017) Resilience and food security: rethinking an ecological concept. J Ecol 105:880–884. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12791
Burkhard B, Müller A, Müller F, Grescho V, Anh Q, Arida G, Bustamante JV, Van Chien H, Heong KL, Escalada M, Marquez L, Thanh Truong D, Villareal S, Settele J (2015) Land cover-based ecosystem service assessment of irrigated rice cropping systems in southeast Asia: An explorative study. Ecosyst Serv 14:76–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2015.05.005
Cagat KAD (2018) Mixed views on the Philippines’ Ifugao Rice Terraces: ‘Good’ versus ‘beautiful’ in the management of a UNESCO World Heritage site. J Southeast Asian Stud 49:84–104. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022463417000704
Camacho LD, Gevaña DT, Carandang AP, Camacho SC (2016) Indigenous knowledge and practices for the sustainable management of Ifugao forests in Cordillera, Philippines. Int J Biodivers Sci Ecosyst Serv Manag 12:5–13. https://doi.org/10.1080/21513732.2015.1124453
Castonguay AC, Burkhard B, Müller F, Horgan FG, Settele J (2016) Resilience and adaptability of rice terrace social-ecological systems: a case study of a local community’s perception in Banaue, Philippines. Ecol Soc 21:15. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-08348-210215
Celia MA, Bouloutas ET, Zarba RL (1990) A general mass-conservative numerical solution for the unsaturated flow equation. Water Resour Res 26:1483–1496. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR026i007p01483
Chen S-K, Chen R-S, Yang T-Y (2014) Application of a tank model to assess the flood-control function of a terraced paddy field. Hydrol Sci J 59:1020–1031. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.822642
Conklin HC (1980) Ethnographic Atlas of Ifugao: a study of environment, culture, and society in Northern Luzon. Yale University Press, New Haven
de Leon EG, Pittock J (2017) Integrating climate change adaptation and climate-related disaster risk-reduction policy in developing countries: a case study in the Philippines. Clim Dev 9:471–478. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2016.1174659
Dizon JT, Calderon MM, Sajise AJU, Andrada RT, Salvador MG (2012) Youths’ perceptions of and attitudes towards the Ifugao Rice Terraces. J Environ Sci Manag 15:52–58
Doherty J (2018) PEST: model-independent parameter estimation. User manual Part I: PEST, SENSAN, and Global optimizers, vol 7. Watermark Numerical Computing, Brisbane
Dotterweich M (2013) The history of human-induced soil erosion: geomorphic legacies, early descriptions and research, and the development of soil conservation—a global synopsis. Geomorphology 201:1–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.07.021
Ducusin RJC, Espaldon MVO, Rebancos CM, De Guzman LEP (2019) Vulnerability assessment of climate change impacts on a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System (GIAHS) in the Philippines: the case of Batad Rice Terraces, Banaue, Ifugao, Philippines. Clim Change 153:395–421. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02397-7
FAO (2016) The state of food and agriculture: climate change, agriculture, and food security, Rome, Italy
Folke C (2016) Resilience (republished). Ecol Soc 21:44. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09088-210444
Ford JD, Cameron L, Rubis J, Maillet M, Nakashima D, Willox AC, Pearce T (2016) Including indigenous knowledge and experience in IPCC assessment reports. Nat Clim Change 6:349. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2954
Fraser JA, Frausin V, Jarvis A (2015) An intergenerational transmission of sustainability? Ancestral habitus and food production in a traditional agro-ecosystem of the Upper Guinea Forest, West Africa. Global Environ Change 31:226–238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.013
Freeze RA, Cherry JA (1979) Groundwater. Prentice-Hall, Englewood
Gallart F, Llorens P, Latron J (1994) Studying the role of old agricultural terraces on runoff generation in a small Mediterranean mountainous basin. J Hydrol 159:291–303. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(94)90262-3
Gariano SL, Guzzetti F (2016) Landslides in a changing climate. Earth Sci Rev 162:227–252. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.011
Gliessman SR (1998) Agroecology: ecological processes in sustainable agriculture. Ann Arbor Press, Chelsea
Glover D, Stone GD (2018) Heirloom rice in Ifugao: an ‘anti-commodity’ in the process of commodification. J Peasant Stud 45:776–804. https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2017.1284062
Gómez-Baggethun E, Reyes-García V (2013) Reinterpreting change in traditional ecological knowledge. Hum Ecol 41:643–647. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-013-9577-9
Guimbatan R, Baguilat TJ (2006) Misunderstanding the notion of conservation in the Philippine rice terraces: cultural landscapes. Int Soc Sci J 58:59–67. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2451.2006.00606.x
Harbaugh AW (2005) MODFLOW-2005, The U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model—the Ground-Water Flow Process, Reston, VA
Harding RJ, Weedon GP, van Lanen HAJ, Clark DB (2014) The future for global water assessment. J Hydrol 518:186–193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.014
Haverkamp R, Vauclin M, Touma J, Wierenga PJ, Vachaud G (1977) A comparison of numerical simulation models for one-dimensional infiltration1. Soil Sci Soc Am J 41:285–294. https://doi.org/10.2136/sssaj1977.03615995004100020024x
Herath S, Musiake K (1994) Simulation of basin scale runoff reduction by infiltration Systems. Water Sci Technol J 29:267–276
Herath S, Musiake K, Hirose N, Matsuda S (1992) A process model for basin hydrological modelling and its application. In: Proceedings of the Japan annual conference of society of water resources and hydrology, pp 146–149
Hiwasaki L, Luna E, Syamsidik SR (2014) Process for integrating local and indigenous knowledge with science for hydro-meteorological disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in coastal and small island communities. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 10:15–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.07.007
IPCC (2013) Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
Kaya Y, Yamaguchi M, Akimoto K (2016) The uncertainty of climate sensitivity and its implication for the Paris negotiation. Sustain Sci 11:515–518. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-015-0339-z
Knutti R, Sedláček J (2013) Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nat Clim Change 3:369. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1716
Koohafkan P, Altieri MA (2017) Forgotten agricultural heritage: reconnecting food systems and sustainable development. Routledge, Abingdon
Korres NE, Norsworthy JK, Burgos NR, Oosterhuis DM (2017) Temperature and drought impacts on rice production: An agronomic perspective regarding short- and long-term adaptation measures. Water Resour Rural Dev 9:12–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wrr.2016.10.001
Krause P, Boyle DP, Bäse F (2005) Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological model assessment. Adv Geosci 5:89–97. https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-5-89-2005
Langerwisch F, Václavík T, von Bloh W, Vetter T, Thonicke K (2017) Combined effects of climate and land-use change on the provision of ecosystem services in rice agro-ecosystems. Environ Res Lett 13:015003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa954d
Lansing JS (2007) Priests and programmers: technologies of power in the engineered landscape of Bali. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Leonard S, Parsons M, Olawsky K, Kofod F (2013) The role of culture and traditional knowledge in climate change adaptation: Insights from East Kimberley, Australia. Global Environ Change 23:623–632. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.02.012
Liu C-W, Huang H-C, Chen S-K, Kuo Y-M (2004) Subsurface return flow and ground water recharge of terrace fields in Northern Taiwan. J Am Water Resour Assoc 40:603–614. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2004.tb04446.x
Mijatović D, Van Oudenhoven F, Eyzaguirre P, Hodgkin T (2013) The role of agricultural biodiversity in strengthening resilience to climate change: towards an analytical framework. Int J Agric Sustain 11:95–107. https://doi.org/10.1080/14735903.2012.691221
Mishra BK, Herath S (2015) Assessment of future floods in the Bagmati River Basin of Nepal using bias-corrected daily GCM precipitation data. J Hydrol Eng 20:05014027. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001090
Mualem Y (1978) Hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated porous media: generalized macroscopic approach. Water Resour Res 14:325–334. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR014i002p00325
Muccione V, Salzmann N, Huggel C (2016) Scientific knowledge and knowledge needs in climate adaptation policy: a case study of diverse Mountain Regions. Mt Res Dev 36:364–375. https://doi.org/10.1659/mrd-journal-d-15-00016.1
Nozawa C, Malingan M, Plantilla A, Ong J (2008) Evolving culture, evolving landscapes: the Philippine Rice Terraces. In: Amend T, Brown J, Kothari A, Phillips A, Stolton S (eds) Protected landscapes and agrobiodiversity values, Vol. I in the series, protected landscapes and seascapes. Kasparek Verlag, Heidelberg, pp 71–93
Pierce DW, Cayan DR, Maurer EP, Abatzoglou JT, Hegewisch KC (2015) Improved bias correction techniques for hydrological simulations of climate change. J Hydrometeorol 16:2421–2442. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0236.1
Raftery AE, Zimmer A, Frierson DMW, Startz R, Liu P (2017) Less than 2 C warming by 2100 unlikely. Nat Clim Change 7:637. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3352
Reyes-García V, Fernández-Llamazares Á, Guèze M, Garcés A, Mallo M, Vila-Gómez M, Vilaseca M (2016) Local indicators of climate change: the potential contribution of local knowledge to climate research. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 7:109–124. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.374
Sandor JA (2006) Ancient agricultural terraces and soils. In: Warkentin BP (ed) Footprints in the soil: people and ideas in soil history. Elsevier, New York, pp 505–534
Santiago J, Buot I (2018) Conceptualizing the socio-ecological resilience of the Chaya Rice Terraces, a Socio-Ecological Production Landscape in Mayoyao, Ifugao, Luzon Island, Philippines. J Mar Island Cult 7:107–126. https://doi.org/10.21463/jmic.2018.07.1.07
Seck PA, Diagne A, Mohanty S, Wopereis MCS (2012) Crops that feed the world 7: rice. Food Secur 4:7–24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-012-0168-1
Singh R, Singh GS (2017) Traditional agriculture: a climate-smart approach for sustainable food production. Energy Ecol Environ 2:296–316. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40974-017-0074-7
Soriano MA, Herath S (2018) Quantifying the role of traditional rice terraces in regulating water resources: implications for management and conservation efforts. Agroecol Sustain Food Syst 42:885–910. https://doi.org/10.1080/21683565.2018.1437497
Soriano MA, Diwa J, Herath S (2017) Local perceptions of climate change and adaptation needs in the Ifugao Rice Terraces (Northern Philippines). J Mt Sci 14:1455–1472. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-016-4250-6
Spangenberg JH, Heong KL, Klotzbücher A, Klotzbücher T, Nguyen QA, Tekken V, Truong DT, Türke M, Settele J (2018) Doing what with whom? Stakeholder analysis in a large transdisciplinary research project in South-East Asia. Paddy Water Environ 16:321–337. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-018-0634-2
Spencer JE (1974) Water control in terraced rice-field agriculture in Southeast Asia. In: Downing T, Gibson M (eds) Irrigation’s impact on society. University of Arizona Press, Tucson, pp 59–66
Spencer JE, Hale GA (1961) The origin, nature, and distribution of agricultural terracing. Pac Viewp 2:1–40
Stavi I, Lal R (2015) Achieving zero net land degradation: challenges and opportunities. J Arid Environ 112:44–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2014.01.016
Tarolli P, Preti F, Romano N (2014) Terraced landscapes: From an old best practice to a potential hazard for soil degradation due to land abandonment. Anthropocene 6:10–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2014.03.002
Tilliger B, Rodríguez-Labajos B, Bustamante VJ, Settele J (2015) Disentangling values in the interrelations between cultural ecosystem services and landscape conservation: a case study of the Ifugao Rice Terraces in the Philippines. Land 4:888–913. https://doi.org/10.3390/land4030888
Tripathi A, Tripathi DK, Chauhan DK, Kumar N, Singh GS (2016) Paradigms of climate change impacts on some major food sources of the world: a review on current knowledge and future prospects. Agric Ecosyst Environ 216:356–373. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2015.09.034
Urruty N, Tailliez-Lefebvre D, Huyghe C (2016) Stability, robustness, vulnerability and resilience of agricultural systems: a review. Agron Sustain Dev 36:15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-015-0347-5
Vermeulen SJ, Campbell BM, Ingram JSI (2012) Climate change and food systems. Annu Rev Environ Resour 37:195–222. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-020411-130608
Wei W, Chen D, Wang L, Daryanto S, Chen L, Yu Y, Lu Y, Sun G, Feng T (2016) Global synthesis of the classifications, distributions, benefits and issues of terracing. Earth Sci Rev 159:388–403. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.06.010
Wheeler T, von Braun J (2013) Climate change impacts on global food security. Science 341:508–513. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1239402
Wiseman ND, Bardsley DK (2016) Monitoring to learn, learning to monitor: a critical analysis of opportunities for indigenous community-based monitoring of environmental change in Australian Rangelands. Geogr Res 54:52–71. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-5871.12150
Yasutomi N, Hamada A, Yatagai A (2011) Development of a long-term daily gridded temperature dataset and its application to rain/snow discrimination of daily precipitation. Glob Environ Res 15:165–172
Yatagai A, Kamiguchi K, Arakawa O, Hamada A, Yasutomi N, Kitoh A (2012) APHRODITE: constructing a long-term daily gridded precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:1401–1415. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00122.1
Zhang Y, Min Q, Li H, He L, Zhang C, Yang L (2017) A conservation approach of globally important agricultural heritage systems (GIAHS): improving traditional agricultural patterns and promoting scale-production. Sustainability 9:295. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9020295
Acknowledgements
The authors extend their thanks to Dr. Johanna Diwa, Dr. Binaya Mishra, and Dr. Ram Avtar for valuable insights on this research. We thank our collaborators from Ifugao, particularly the farmers and traditional knowledge holders who participated in the field activities. We also thank the three anonymous reviewers whose comments greatly improved this manuscript.
Funding
This work was supported by the Asia–Pacific Network for Global Change Research (ARCP2011-13NMY-Herath, ARCP2012-03CMY-Herath, and ARCP2013-03CMY-Herath), the Japan Foundation for the United Nations University, and the Yale Institute for Biospheric Studies.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Soriano, M.A., Herath, S. Climate change and traditional upland paddy farming: a Philippine case study. Paddy Water Environ 18, 317–330 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-019-00784-5
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-019-00784-5