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An integrated Bayesian approach to the probabilistic tsunami risk model for the location and magnitude of earthquakes: application to the eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula

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Abstract

We explored the distributional changes in tsunami height along the eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula resulting from virtual and historical tsunami earthquakes. The results confirm significant distributional changes in tsunami height depending on the location and magnitude of earthquakes. We further developed a statistical model to jointly analyse tsunami heights from multiple events, considering the functional relationships; we estimated parameters conveying earthquake characteristics in a Weibull distribution, all within a Bayesian regression framework. We found the proposed model effective and informative for the estimation of tsunami hazard analysis from an earthquake of a given magnitude at a particular location. Specifically, several applications presented in this study showed that the proposed Bayesian approach has the advantage of conveying the uncertainty of the parameter estimates and its substantial effect on estimating tsunami risk.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the Associate Editor and the two anonymous reviewers for their constructive criticism of the paper. The insightful comments provided by the Associated Editor and reviewers have greatly improved the original manuscript. This research was supported by Korea Institute of Marine Science and Technology promotion. The third author was supported by the MSIT (Ministry of Science and ICT), Korea, under the ITRC (Information Technology Research Center) support program (IITP-2017-2015-0-00378) supervised by the IITP (Institute for Information & communications Technology Promotion). The data used in this study are available upon request from the corresponding author via email (hkwon@jbnu.ac.kr).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-ro, Seongdong-gu, Seoul, 04763, Republic of Korea

    Kwan-Hyuck Kim & Yong-Sik Cho

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University, 567 Baekje-daero, Deokjin-gu, Jeonju-si, Jeollabuk-do, 54896, Republic of Korea

    Hyun-Han Kwon

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  1. Kwan-Hyuck Kim
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Correspondence to Hyun-Han Kwon.

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Kim, KH., Cho, YS. & Kwon, HH. An integrated Bayesian approach to the probabilistic tsunami risk model for the location and magnitude of earthquakes: application to the eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 32, 1243–1257 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1488-7

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