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Changes in a modeled MJO with idealized global warming

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Abstract

This study estimates how the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) will change with uniform global warming of 2 and 4 K at the Earth surface using an aqua-planet version of the NCAR CAM2 implemented with the Tiedtke convection scheme. Solar insolation is specified at the vernal equinox with a diurnal cycle. Thirty-year integrations are carried out for each case and the last 20-year’s results are used for analysis. For the warmer cases, the modeled MJO’s eastward propagation remains dominant at zonal wave numbers 1–4, and notable increase occurs in variance, power spectra, and the number of prominent MJO events. The convective heating is enhanced more in upper troposphere, and the MJO power spectra increase more on 20–30 days than on 30–60 days. In all cases, composite life cycles of prominent MJO events show that the anomalous surface latent heat flux lags precipitation by about 90° in phase, characterizing the nonlinear wind induced surface heat exchange (WISHE) to destabilize the MJO. Interacting with a warmer surface in the 4 K case, perturbations of zonal wind and temperature at bottom model level contribute to the nonlinear WISHE coherently with the latent heat flux. Meanwhile anomalous boundary layer convergence leads precipitation by some 45° in phase, indicating the frictional moisture convergence to maintain the enhanced MJO.

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Acknowledgments

This research is partially supported by the Climate Change and Prediction Program of the US Depart of Energy to the Stony Brook University. The author particularly thanks Duane E. Waliser and Minghua Zhang for their insightful discussions. The author is also grateful to Ms. Diane J. Henderson, Drs Charles N. Flagg, Kenneth R. Sperber and Gerald A. Meehl for useful comments.

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  1. School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Endeavour 199, SoMAS, Stony Brook, NY, 11794-5000, USA

    Ping Liu

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Liu, P. Changes in a modeled MJO with idealized global warming. Clim Dyn 40, 761–773 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1323-2

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