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A Pediatric Bone Mass Scan Has Poor Ability to Predict Adult Bone Mass: A 28-Year Prospective Study in 214 Children

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An Erratum to this article was published on 22 January 2014

Abstract

As the correlation of bone mass from childhood to adulthood is unclear, we conducted a long-term prospective observational study to determine if a pediatric bone mass scan could predict adult bone mass. We measured cortical bone mineral content (BMC [g]), bone mineral density (BMD [g/cm2]), and bone width (cm) in the distal forearm by single photon absorptiometry in 120 boys and 94 girls with a mean age of 10 years (range 3–17) and mean 28 years (range 25–29) later. We calculated individual and age-specific bone mass Z scores, using the control cohort included at baseline as reference, and evaluated correlations between the two measurements with Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Individual Z scores were also stratified in quartiles to register movements between quartiles from growth to adulthood. BMD Z scores in childhood and adulthood correlated in both boys (r = 0.35, p < 0.0001) and girls (r = 0.50, p < 0.0001) and in both children ≥10 years at baseline (boys r = 0.43 and girls r = 0.58, both p < 0.0001) and children <10 years at baseline (boys r = 0.26 and girls r = 0.40, both p < 0.05). Of the children in the lowest quartile of BMD, 58 % had left the lowest quartile in adulthood. A pediatric bone scan with a value in the lowest quartile had a sensitivity of 48 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 27–69 %) and a specificity of 76 % (95 % CI 66–84 %) to identify individuals who would remain in the lowest quartile also in adulthood. Childhood forearm BMD explained 12 % of the variance in adult BMD in men and 25 % in women. A pediatric distal forearm BMD scan has poor ability to predict adult bone mass.

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Acknowledgments

Financial support was received from the Skåne University Hospital and the Österlund, Pahlsson, and Kock Foundations.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Clinical and Molecular Osteoporosis Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences and Orthopedics, Skåne University Hospital, Lund University, 205 02, Malmö, Sweden

    Christian Buttazzoni, Bjorn E. Rosengren, Magnus Tveit, Lennart Landin, Jan-Åke Nilsson & Magnus K. Karlsson

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  1. Christian Buttazzoni
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  2. Bjorn E. Rosengren
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  3. Magnus Tveit
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  4. Lennart Landin
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  5. Jan-Åke Nilsson
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  6. Magnus K. Karlsson
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Christian Buttazzoni.

Additional information

Bjorn E. Rosengren reports Grants from Skåne University Hospital, Österlund Foundation, and Kocks Foundation, outside the submitted work. Christian Buttazzoni, Magnus Tveit, Lennard Landin, Jan-Åke Nilsson, and Magnus K. Karlsson have nothing to disclose.

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Buttazzoni, C., Rosengren, B.E., Tveit, M. et al. A Pediatric Bone Mass Scan Has Poor Ability to Predict Adult Bone Mass: A 28-Year Prospective Study in 214 Children. Calcif Tissue Int 94, 232–239 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00223-013-9802-y

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