Skip to main content

Predictive and Prognostic Markers in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
  • 1043 Accesses

Abstract

Predictive and prognostic factors enable clinicians to make informed decisions about therapy efficacy and patient survival. Despite advances in therapeutics, metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) remains largely incurable. Current standard targeted therapies (TT) for mRCC focus on inhibiting angiogenesis via the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) or blocking the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) pathway. The International mRCC Database Consortium (IMDC) criteria (Heng et al. J Clin Oncol 27(34):5794–5799, 2009), which focuses on patients who received targeted therapy, can be used to assess the prognosis of mRCC patients. Four of the MSKCC prognostic variables (anemia, hypercalcemia, Karnofsky performance status <80 %, and time from diagnosis to treatment of less than 1 year), as well as two additional factors (neutrophils and platelets greater than the upper limit of normal), were identified as key prognostic features. Patients were segregated into three risk categories: favorable (0 risk factors median overall survival (mOS) of 43.2 months), intermediate (one to two risk factors; mOS 22.5 months), and poor risk group (three or more risk factors; mOS 7.8 months). Also the IMDC criteria can be applied to different situations to evaluate prognosis in second-line treatment and in non-clear cell RCC (nccRCC) histologies. Benchmarks for survival have also been created for those treated with multiple lines of therapy to help guide clinical trial construction. Prognostic factors are better developed than predictive factors in mRCC but research continues in the field of biomarkers.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   139.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   179.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   179.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Simms L, Barraclough H, Govindan R (2013) Biostatistics primer: what a clinician ought to know--prognostic and predictive factors. J Thorac Oncol Off Publ Int Assoc Study Lung Cancer 8(6):808–813. doi:10.1097/JTO.0b013e318292bdcd

    Google Scholar 

  2. Mekhail TM, Abou-Jawde RM, Boumerhi G, Malhi S, Wood L, Elson P, Bukowski R (2005) Validation and extension of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering prognostic factors model for survival in patients with previously untreated metastatic renal cell carcinoma. J Clin Oncol Off J Am Soc Clin Oncol 23(4):832–841. doi:10.1200/jco.2005.05.179

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Interferon-alpha and survival in metastatic renal carcinoma: early results of a randomised controlled trial. Medical Research Council Renal Cancer Collaborators (1999). Lancet 353(9146):14–17

    Google Scholar 

  4. Motzer RJ, Bacik J, Murphy BA, Russo P, Mazumdar M (2002) Interferon-alfa as a comparative treatment for clinical trials of new therapies against advanced renal cell carcinoma. J Clin Oncol Off J Am Soc Clin Oncol 20(1):289–296

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Choueiri TK, Garcia JA, Elson P, Khasawneh M, Usman S, Golshayan AR, Baz RC, Wood L, Rini BI, Bukowski RM (2007) Clinical factors associated with outcome in patients with metastatic clear-cell renal cell carcinoma treated with vascular endothelial growth factor-targeted therapy. Cancer 110(3):543–550. doi:10.1002/cncr.22827

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  6. Negrier S, Escudier B, Gomez F, Douillard JY, Ravaud A, Chevreau C, Buclon M, Perol D, Lasset C (2002) Prognostic factors of survival and rapid progression in 782 patients with metastatic renal carcinomas treated by cytokines: a report from the Groupe Francais d’Immunotherapie. Ann Oncol Off J Eur Soc Med Oncol ESMO 13(9):1460–1468

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  7. Manola J, Royston P, Elson P, McCormack JB, Mazumdar M, Negrier S, Escudier B, Eisen T, Dutcher J, Atkins M, Heng DY, Choueiri TK, Motzer R, Bukowski R (2011) Prognostic model for survival in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma: results from the international kidney cancer working group. Clin Cancer Res 17(16):5443–5450. doi:10.1158/1078-0432.ccr-11-0553

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  8. A study to compare Tivozanib (AV-951) to Sorafenib in subjects with advanced renal cell carcinoma (TIVO-1). http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01030783. Accessed 07 Apr 2014

  9. A phase II uncontrolled study of BAY73–4506 in previously untreated patients with metastatic or unresectable RCC. http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT00664326. Accessed 07 Apr 2014

  10. A study of Cabozantinib (XL184) vs Everolimus in subjects with Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma (METEOR). http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01865747. Accessed 07 Apr 2014

  11. A study of E7080 alone, and in combination with everolimus in subjects with unresectable advanced or metastatic renal cell carcinoma following one prior Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF)-targeted treatment. http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01136733. Accessed 07 Apr 2014

  12. AZD2171 in treating patients with refractory metastatic kidney cancer. http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT00303862. Accessed 07 Apr 2014

  13. Nivolumab (BMS-936558; MDX-1106) in Combination with Sunitinib, Pazopanib, or Ipilimumab in subjects with metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) (CheckMate 016). http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01472081. Accessed 07 Apr 2014

  14. Phase 3 trial of autologous dendritic cell immunotherapy (AGS-003) plus standard treatment of advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) (ADAPT). http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01582672. Accessed 07 Apr 2014

  15. Tang PA, Vickers MM, Heng DY (2011) Clinical and molecular prognostic factors in renal cell carcinoma: what we know so far. Hematol Oncol Clin North Am 25(4):871–891. doi:10.1016/j.hoc.2011.04.003

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  16. Heng DY, Xie W, Regan MM, Warren MA, Golshayan AR, Sahi C, Eigl BJ, Ruether JD, Cheng T, North S, Venner P, Knox JJ, Chi KN, Kollmannsberger C, McDermott DF, Oh WK, Atkins MB, Bukowski RM, Rini BI, Choueiri TK (2009) Prognostic factors for overall survival in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma treated with vascular endothelial growth factor-targeted agents: results from a large, multicenter study. J Clin Oncol Off J Am Soc Clin Oncol 27(34):5794–5799. doi:10.1200/JCO.2008.21.4809

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  17. Cetin B, Berk V, Kaplan MA, Afsar B, Tufan G, Ozkan M, Isikdogan A, Benekli M, Coskun U, Buyukberber S (2013) Is the Pretreatment Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio an Important Prognostic Parameter in Patients with Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma? Clin Genitourin Cancer 11(2):141–148. doi:10.1016/j.clgc.2012.09.001

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  18. Ohno Y, Nakashima J, Ohori M, Hatano T, Tachibana M (2010) Pretreatment Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio as an Independent Predictor of Recurrence in Patients With Nonmetastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma. J Urol 184(3):873–878. doi:10.1016/j.juro.2010.05.028

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  19. Templeton AJ, Knox JJ, Lin X, Simantov R, Xie W, Lawrence N, Broom R, Fay AP, Rini B, Donskov F, Bjarnason GA, Smoragiewicz M, Kollmannsberger C, Kanesvaran R, Alimohamed N, Hermanns T, Wells JC, Amir E, Choueiri TK, Heng DY (2016) Change in Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte Ratio in Response to Targeted Therapy for Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma as a Prognosticator and Biomarker of Efficacy. Eur Urol 70(2):358–364. doi:10.1016/j.eururo.2016.02.033

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  20. Ko JJ, Choueiri TK, Rini BI, Lee JL, Kroeger N, Srinivas S, Harshman LC, Knox JJ, Bjarnason GA, MacKenzie MJ, Wood L, Vaishampayan UN, Agarwal N, Pal SK, Tan MH, Rha SY, Yuasa T, Donskov F, Bamias A, Heng DY (2014) First-, second-, third-line therapy for mRCC: benchmarks for trial design from the IMDC. Br J Cancer 110(8):1917–1922. doi:10.1038/bjc.2014.25

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  21. Temsirolimus versus Sorafenib as second-line therapy In patients with advanced RCC who have failed first-line sunitinib (INTORSECT). http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT00474786. Accessed 07 Apr 2014

  22. Motzer RJ, Porta C, Vogelzang NJ, Sternberg CN, Szczylik C, Zolnierek J, Kollmannsberger C, Rha SY, Bjarnason GA, Melichar B, De Giorgi U, Grunwald V, Davis ID, Lee JL, Esteban E, Urbanowitz G, Cai C, Squires M, Marker M, Shi MM, Escudier B (2014) Dovitinib versus sorafenib for third-line targeted treatment of patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma: an open-label, randomised phase 3 trial. Lancet Oncol 15(3):286–296. doi:10.1016/s1470-2045(14)70030-0

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  23. Harshman LC, Xie W, Bjarnason GA, Knox JJ, MacKenzie M, Wood L, Srinivas S, Vaishampayan UN, Tan MH, Rha SY, Donskov F, Agarwal N, Kollmannsberger C, North S, Rini BI, Heng DY, Choueiri TK (2012) Conditional survival of patients with metastatic renal-cell carcinoma treated with VEGF-targeted therapy: a population-based study. Lancet Oncol 13(9):927–935. doi:10.1016/s1470-2045(12)70285-1

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  24. Ko Jenny JXW, Chin HDY, Nils K, Jae-Lyun L, Rini BI, Knox JJ, Bjarnason GA, Christine HL, Kumar PS, Takeshi Y, Martin S, Frede D, Aristotelis B, Lori W, Scott ED, Neeraj A, Vaishampayan UN, Young RS, Choueiri TK (2014) The International Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Database Consortium (IMDC) model as a prognostic tool in metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) patients previously treated with first-line targeted therapy (TT). J Clin Oncol Off J Am Soc Clin Oncol 32 (suppl 4; abstr 398)

    Google Scholar 

  25. Smith AD, Shah SN, Rini BI, Lieber ML, Remer EM (2010) Morphology, Attenuation, Size, and Structure (MASS) criteria: assessing response and predicting clinical outcome in metastatic renal cell carcinoma on antiangiogenic targeted therapy. AJR Am J Roentgenol 194(6):1470–1478. doi:10.2214/ajr.09.3456

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  26. McKay RR, Kroeger N, Xie W, Lee JL, Knox JJ, Bjarnason GA, MacKenzie MJ, Wood L, Srinivas S, Vaishampayan UN, Rha SY, Pal SK, Donskov F, Tantravahi SK, Rini BI, Heng DY, Choueiri TK (2014) Impact of bone and liver metastases on patients with renal cell carcinoma treated with targeted therapy. Eur Urol 65(3):577–584. doi:10.1016/j.eururo.2013.08.012

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  27. Rini BI, Schiller JH, Fruehauf JP, Cohen EE, Tarazi JC, Rosbrook B, Bair AH, Ricart AD, Olszanski AJ, Letrent KJ, Kim S, Rixe O (2011) Diastolic blood pressure as a biomarker of axitinib efficacy in solid tumors. Clin Cancer Res Off J Am Assoc Cancer Res 17(11):3841–3849. doi:10.1158/1078-0432.ccr-10-2806

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  28. Bhargava P, Esteves B, Al-Adhami M, Nosov D, Lipatov ON, Lyulko AA, Anischenko AA, Chacko RT, Slichenmyer WJ (2010) Effect of hypertension, nephrectomy, and prior treatment on the efficacy of tivozanib (AV-951) in a phase II randomized discontinuation trial (RDT) in patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC). 2010 Genitourinary Cancers Symposium. Abstract 342

    Google Scholar 

  29. Schmidinger M, Vogl UM, Bojic M, Lamm W, Heinzl H, Haitel A, Clodi M, Kramer G, Zielinski CC (2011) Hypothyroidism in patients with renal cell carcinoma: blessing or curse? Cancer 117(3):534–544. doi:10.1002/cncr.25422

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  30. Bianchi L, Rossi L, Tomao F, Papa A, Zoratto F, Tomao S (2013) Thyroid dysfunction and tyrosine kinase inhibitors in renal cell carcinoma. Endocr Relat Cancer 20(5):R233–R245. doi:10.1530/erc-13-0201

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  31. Nakano K, Komatsu K, Kubo T, Natsui S, Nukui A, Kurokawa S, Kobayashi M, Morita T (2013) Hand-foot skin reaction is associated with the clinical outcome in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma treated with sorafenib. Jpn J Clin Oncol 43(10):1023–1029. doi:10.1093/jjco/hyt110

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  32. Smyth EC, Sclafani F, Cunningham D (2014) Emerging molecular targets in oncology: clinical potential of MET/hepatocyte growth-factor inhibitors. OncoTargets Ther 7:1001–1014. doi:10.2147/ott.s44941

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Jilaveanu LB, Shuch B, Zito CR, Parisi F, Barr M, Kluger Y, Chen L, Kluger HM (2014) PD-L1 Expression in Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma: An Analysis of Nephrectomy and Sites of Metastases. J Cancer 5(3):166–172. doi:10.7150/jca.8167

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  34. Brugarolas J (2013) PBRM1 and BAP1 as novel targets for renal cell carcinoma. Cancer J Sudbury, MA 19(4):324–332. doi:10.1097/PPO.0b013e3182a102d1

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  35. Motzer RJ, Barrios CH, Kim TM, Falcon S, Cosgriff T, Harker WG, Srimuninnimit V, Pittman K, Sabbatini R, Rha SY, Flaig TW, Page R, Bavbek S, Beck JT, Patel P, Cheung FY, Yadav S, Schiff EM, Wang X, Niolat J, Sellami D, Anak O, Knox JJ (2014) Phase II randomized trial comparing sequential first-line everolimus and second-line sunitinib versus first-line sunitinib and second-line everolimus in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma. J Clin Oncol Off J Am Soc Clin Oncol 32(25):2765–2772. doi:10.1200/jco.2013.54.6911

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  36. Hsieh JCD, Wang P, Chen Y, Redzematovic A, Marker M, Patel P, Chevinsky M, Bhanot U, Pinciroli P, Bouvier N, Huberman KH, Berger MF, Socci ND, Cheng E, Lee W, Knox JJ, Voss MH, Voi M, Motzer R (2015) Identification of efficacy biomarkers in a large metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) cohort through next generation sequencing (NGS): results from RECORD-3. J Clin Oncol 33 (15_suppl): Abstract 4509

    Google Scholar 

  37. The Cancer Genome Atlas Research Network (2013) Comprehensive molecular characterization of clear cell renal cell carcinoma. Nature 499(7456):43–49. doi:10.1038/nature12222

    Article  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  38. Antoun S, Lanoy E, Iacovelli R, Albiges-Sauvin L, Loriot Y, Merad-Taoufik M, Fizazi K, di Palma M, Baracos VE, Escudier B (2013) Skeletal muscle density predicts prognosis in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma treated with targeted therapies. Cancer 119(18):3377–3384. doi:10.1002/cncr.28218

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  39. White NM, Khella HW, Grigull J, Adzovic S, Youssef YM, Honey RJ, Stewart R, Pace KT, Bjarnason GA, Jewett MA, Evans AJ, Gabril M, Yousef GM (2011) miRNA profiling in metastatic renal cell carcinoma reveals a tumour-suppressor effect for miR-215. Br J Cancer 105(11):1741–1749. doi:10.1038/bjc.2011.401

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  40. Garcia-Donas J, Esteban E, Leandro-Garcia LJ, Castellano DE, del Alba AG, Climent MA, Arranz JA, Gallardo E, Puente J, Bellmunt J, Mellado B, Martinez E, Moreno F, Font A, Robledo M, Rodriguez-Antona C (2011) Single nucleotide polymorphism associations with response and toxic effects in patients with advanced renal-cell carcinoma treated with first-line sunitinib: a multicentre, observational, prospective study. Lancet Oncol 12(12):1143–1150. doi:10.1016/s1470-2045(11)70266-2

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  41. Alatorre CI, Carter GC, Chen C, Villarivera C, Zarotsky V, Cantrell RA, Goetz I, Paczkowski R, Buesching D (2011) A comprehensive review of predictive and prognostic composite factors implicated in the heterogeneity of treatment response and outcome across disease areas. Int J Clin Pract 65(8):831–847. doi:10.1111/j.1742-1241.2011.02703.x

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  42. Coppin C, Porzsolt F, Awa A, Kumpf J, Coldman A, Wilt T (2005) Immunotherapy for advanced renal cell cancer. Cochrane Database Syst Rev (1):Cd001425. doi:10.1002/14651858.CD001425.pub2

    Google Scholar 

  43. Heng DY, Xie W, Regan MM, Harshman LC, Bjarnason GA, Vaishampayan UN, Mackenzie M, Wood L, Donskov F, Tan MH, Rha SY, Agarwal N, Kollmannsberger C, Rini BI, Choueiri TK (2013) External validation and comparison with other models of the International Metastatic Renal-Cell Carcinoma Database Consortium prognostic model: a population-based study. Lancet Oncol 14(2):141–148. doi:10.1016/s1470-2045(12)70559-4

    Article  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  44. Hudes G, Carducci M, Tomczak P, Dutcher J, Figlin R, Kapoor A, Staroslawska E, Sosman J, McDermott D, Bodrogi I, Kovacevic Z, Lesovoy V, Schmidt-Wolf IG, Barbarash O, Gokmen E, O’Toole T, Lustgarten S, Moore L, Motzer RJ (2007) Temsirolimus, interferon alfa, or both for advanced renal-cell carcinoma. N Engl J Med 356(22):2271–2281. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa066838

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  45. Kroeger N, Xie W, Lee JL, Bjarnason GA, Knox JJ, Mackenzie MJ, Wood L, Srinivas S, Vaishamayan UN, Rha SY, Pal SK, Yuasa T, Donskov F, Agarwal N, Kollmannsberger CK, Tan MH, North SA, Rini BI, Choueiri TK, Heng DY (2013) Metastatic non-clear cell renal cell carcinoma treated with targeted therapy agents: characterization of survival outcome and application of the International mRCC Database Consortium criteria. Cancer 119(16):2999–3006. doi:10.1002/cncr.28151

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  46. Schutz FA, Xie W, Donskov F, Sircar M, McDermott DF, Rini BI, Agarwal N, Pal SK, Srinivas S, Kollmannsberger C, North SA, Wood LA, Vaishampayan U, Tan MH, Mackenzie MJ, Lee JL, Rha SY, Yuasa T, Heng DY, Choueiri TK (2014) The impact of low serum sodium on treatment outcome of targeted therapy in metastatic renal cell carcinoma: results from the International Metastatic Renal Cell Cancer Database Consortium. Eur Urol 65(4):723–730. doi:10.1016/j.eururo.2013.10.013

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  47. Templeton AJ, Amir E, Aneja P, Vera-Badillo FE, Hermanns T, McNamara MG, Heng DYC, Jennifer KJ (2014) Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and response to tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy in metastatic renal cell carcinoma. J Clin Oncol Off J Am Soc Clin Oncol 32 (Suppl 4):abstr 477

    Google Scholar 

  48. Rini BI, Cohen DP, Lu DR, Chen I, Hariharan S, Gore ME, Figlin RA, Baum MS, Motzer RJ (2011) Hypertension as a biomarker of efficacy in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma treated with sunitinib. J Natl Cancer Inst 103(9):763–773. doi:10.1093/jnci/djr128

    Article  CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  49. Heng DY, Wells JC, Rini BI, Beuselinck B, Lee JL, Knox JJ, Bjarnason GA, Pal SK, Kollmannsberger CK, Yuasa T, Srinivas S, Donskov F, Bamias A, Wood LA, Ernst DS, Agarwal N, Vaishampayan UN, Rha SY, Kim JJ, Choueiri TK (2014) Cytoreductive Nephrectomy in Patients with Synchronous Metastases from Renal Cell Carcinoma: Results from the International Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Database Consortium. Eur Urol. doi:10.1016/j.eururo.2014.05.034

    PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Daniel Y. C. Heng MD, MPH, FRCPC .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2017 Springer Japan KK

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Ruiz Morales, J.M., Heng, D.Y.C. (2017). Predictive and Prognostic Markers in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma. In: Oya, M. (eds) Renal Cell Carcinoma. Springer, Tokyo. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-55531-5_9

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-55531-5_9

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Tokyo

  • Print ISBN: 978-4-431-55530-8

  • Online ISBN: 978-4-431-55531-5

  • eBook Packages: MedicineMedicine (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics