Impact Assessment

Abstract

At present, most global change impact assessments have been undertaken for distinct sectors. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has however stressed the need for integrated approaches to provide an overview of the cumulative effects of climate change. This impact assessment is multi-disciplinary in its approach and combines two distinct assessments to analyse the impacts of global change on the Intercontinental Biosphere Reserve of the Mediterranean that straddles Morocco and Spain. In a first step, regional climate change scenarios are defined and used to carry out a hydro-ecological assessment based on modelling the physical impacts of climate change. In a second step, water management scenarios are defined and used to conduct a socio-economic assessment based on empirical evidence from stakeholders on the effects of scenarios on regional livelihoods and adaptive measures taken. The results of these assessments are then analysed and overall impacts of climate change on physical and socio-economic systems are identified for the Intercontinental Biosphere Reserve of the Mediterranean.