Japan’s Nuclear Policy: Reflections on the Immediate Past, Prognosis for the 21st Century

Abstract

This assessment tries to present an overview of Japan’s policy on nuclear weapons and on nuclear energy, although the two were not necessarily closely connected in the minds of Japanese policymakers. With the end of the Cold War and re-evaluation of nuclear energy as a modern technology, leaders are unsure of the role of nuclear energy in the 21st century. The prevailing thinking is to deny nuclear energy any role and nuclear non-proliferation is one of the most powerful voices in this regard. More realistic policy options for medium- to long-term strategies, such as reducing the stockpiles of warheads and cleaning up the radioactive contamination accumulated during the Cold War, are priority items requiring much effort and expenditure. As concerns about global environmental deterioration and depletion of natural resources take centre stage, Japan’s nuclear policy also needs to shift from a Japan-centred, inward-looking, moral accusatory tone regarding nuclear weapons to a more global, problem management style. It is imperative to regain the proper balance between different policy, technology, security, scientific and other considerations that may be involved. Nuclear non-proliferation will also have to change in the post-START-II and post-CTBT world, where Japan should be more outward-looking.