Abstract
The Principle of the Common Cause is usually understood to provide causal explanations for probabilistic correlations obtaining between causally unrelated events. In this study, an extended interpretation of the principle is proposed, according to which common causes should be invoked to explain positive correlations whose values depart from the ones that one would expect to obtain in accordance to her probabilistic expectations. In addition, a probabilistic model for common causes is tailored which satisfies the generalized version of the principle, at the same time including the standard conjunctive-fork model as a special case.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Arntzenius F. (1992) The common cause principle. In: Hull D. L., Forbes M., Okruhlik K. (eds) PSA 1992: Proceedings of the 1992 Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association, Vol. 2: Symposia and Invited Papers. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp 227–237
Cartwright, N. (1988). How to tell a common cause: Generalizations of the conjunctive fork criterion. In Probability and causality essays in honor of Wesley C. Salmon (pp. 181–188). Dordrecht: Reidel
Cartwright N. (1999) The dappled world. A study of The boundaries of science. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Fetzer, J. H. (eds) (1988) Probability and causality essays in honor of Wesley C. Salmon. Reidel, Dordrecht
Forster M. (1986) Unification and scientific realism revisited. In: Fine A., Machamer P. (eds) PSA 1986: Proceedings of the 1986 Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association, Vol. 1: Constributed Papers. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp 394–405
Grasshoff G., Portmann S., Wuthrich A. (2005) Minimal assumption derivation of a bell-type inequality. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 56(4): 663–680
Hofer-Szabó G., Rédei M., Szabó L. (1999) On Reichenbach’s common cause principle and Reichenbach’s notion of common cause. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 50(3): 377–399
Pearl J. (2000) Causality: Models, reasoning and inference. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Reichenbach H. (1956) The direction of time. The University of California Press, Berkeley
Salmon W. C. (1984) Scientific explanation and the causal structure of the world. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Sober, E. (1988). The principle of the common cause. In Probability and causality essays in honor of Wesley C. Salmon (pp. 211–228). Dordrecht: Reidel
Spirtes P., Glymour C., Scheines R. (2001) Causation, prediction, and search (2nd ed.). Springer, New York
van Fraassen B. (1980) The scientific image. Clarendon Press, Oxford
van Fraassen B. C. (1982) The charybdis of realism: Epistemological implications of Bell’s inequality. Synthese 52(1): 25–38
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
To my granny, whose wisdom philosophy cannot compete with.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mazzola, C. Correlations, deviations and expectations: the Extended Principle of the Common Cause. Synthese 190, 2853–2866 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-012-0089-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-012-0089-8