Abstract
The objective of stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations is often envisioned as a monotonic approach to higher constant concentrations. For CO2 to approach a constant concentration over a finite time, CO2 emissions must peak and then gradually approach zero over 1,000+ years, regardless of the concentration level. While this intellectual architecture has proved useful, we suggest consideration of a broader range of scenarios, including ones in which net emissions decline to zero over a finite period of time resulting in a maximum CO2 concentration followed by a long-term decline to a lower level. Carbon cycle model results illustrate these scenarios.
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Kheshgi, H.S., Smith, S.J. & Edmonds, J.A. Emissions and Atmospheric CO2 Stabilization: Long-Term Limits and Paths. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 10, 213–220 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-005-3783-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-005-3783-8