Abstract
This study assesses the impacts of warming/cooling of the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) on the climate of West Africa using Version 4.4 of Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4) of International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy. The 1–2 K cooling and warming of the Atlantic SST both result in tripole temperature and precipitation change structure, having a northwest–southeast orientation over West Africa. Findings reveal that the responses of precipitation and temperature to the Atlantic SST cooling are opposite to those for the Atlantic SST warming and these responses intensify with increased warming/cooling of the Atlantic SST. The structure of the change in climate is attributed to the response of atmospheric/soil moisture gradient and orientation of orography in West Africa.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abdussamatov HI (2012) Bicentennial decrease of the total solar irradiance leads to unbalanced thermal budget of the earth and the little ice age. Appl Phys Res 4(1):178–184
Adejuwon JO, Odekunle TO (2006) Variability and severity of the “Little Dry Season” in South Western Nigeria. J Clim 19:1–8
Adeniyi MO (2014a) Sensitivity of different convection schemes in RegCM4.0 for simulation of precipitation during the Septembers of 1989 and 1998 over West Africa. Theor Appl Climatol 115(1–2):305–322. doi:10.1007/s00704-013-0881-5
Adeniyi MO (2014b) Variability of daily precipitation over Nigeria. Meteorol Atmos Phys 126:161–176. doi:10.1007/s00703-014-0340-6. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00703-014-0340-6
Adeniyi MO, Nymphas EF (2013) Estimation of surface energy fluxes from bare ground in a tropical station using Priestley Taylor method. J Sci Technol 33(1):41–54. doi:10.4314/just.v33i1.5
Adeniyi MO, Ogunsola OE, Nymphas EF, Oladiran EO (2009) Food security measures during uncertain climatic conditions in Nigeria. Afr J Food Agric Nutr Dev (AJFAND) 9(2):652–677
Bolvin DT, Alder RF, Huffman GJ, Nelkin EJ, Poutiainen JP (2009) Comparison of GPCP monthly and daily precipitation estimates with high-latitude gauge observations. J Appl Meteor Climatol 48(9):1843–1857
Calisto M, Verronen PT, Rozanov E, Peter T (2012) Influence of a Carrington-like event on the atmospheric chemistry, temperature and dynamics. Atmos Chem Phys 12:8679–8686. doi:10.5194/acp-12-8679-2012. http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/8679/2012/
Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X, Held I, Jones I, Kolli RK, Kwon WT, Laprise R, Magaña Rueda V, Mearns L, Menéndez CG, Räisänen J, Rinke A, Sarr A, Whetton P (2007) Regional climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Christensen JH, Kumar KK, Aldrian E, An S-I, Cavalcanti IFA, de Castro M, Dong W, Goswami P, Hall A, Kanyanga JK, Kitoh A, Kossin J, Lau N-C, Renwick J, Stephenson DB, Xie S-P, Zhou T (2013) Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change supplementary material. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, XiaY, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. http://www.climatechange2013.org, http://www.ipcc.ch
Cook KH (1999) Generation of the African Easterly jet and its role in determining West African precipitation. J Clim 12:1165–1184
Diallo I (2015) Sensitivity of West African Monsoon water cycle to land surface schemes in RegCM4. AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 16 December, 2015 (unpublished)
Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Hólm EV, Isaksen L, Kållberg P, Köhler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette J-J, Park B-K, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thépaut J-N, d Vitart F (2011) The ERA-interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597. doi:10.1002/qj.828
Dias J, Pauluis O (2011) Modulations of phase speed of convectively coupled Kelvin waves by the ITCZ. J Atmos Sci 68:1446–1459
Dickinson RE, Henderson-Sellers A, Kennedy P (1993) Bio-sphere–atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS) version 1e as coupled to the NCAR community climate model. Tech Rep, National Center for Atmospheric Research Tech Note NCAR.TN-387 + STR, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Elguindi N, Bi X, Giorgi F, Nagarajan B, Pal J, Solmon F, Rauscher S, Zakey A, O’Brien T, Nogherotto R, Giulian G (2014) Regional climate model user’s manual version 4.4. Earth system physics section. The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste
Folland CK, Palmer TN, Parker DE (1986) Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea surface temperature 1901–1985. Nature 320:602–607
Fontaine B, Louvet S (2006) Sudan-Sahel rainfall onset: definition of an objective index, types of years, and experimental hindcasts. J Geophys Res 111:D20103. doi:10.1029/2005JD007019
Giannini A, Saravanan R, Chang P (2003) Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Science 302:1027–1030
Giorgi F, Coppola E, Solmon F, Mariotti L, Sylla MB, Bi X, Elguindi N, Diro GT, Nair V, Giuliani G, Turuncoglu UU, Cozzini S, Güttler I, O’Brien TA, Tawfik AB, Shalaby A, Zakey AS, Steiner AL, Storda F, Sloan LC, Brankovic C (2012) RegCM4 model description and preliminary tests over multiple CORDEX domains. Clim Res 52:7–29. doi:10.3354/cr01018
Godwin P, Williams RG, Ridgwell A (2015) Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake. Nat Geosci 8:29–34. doi:10.1038/ngeo2304
Hansen J, Sato M, Kharecha P, Russell G, Lea DW, Siddal M (2007) Climate change and trace gases. Philos Trans R Soc A 365:1925–1954. doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2052
Hansen J, Sato M, Russell G, Kharecha P (2013) Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Philos Trans R Soc A 371:20120294. doi:10.1098/rsta.2012.0294
Held IM, Delworth TL, Lu J, Findell KL, Knutson TR (2005) Simulation of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 102:17891–17896. doi:10.1073/pnas.0509057102
Holtslag AAM, de Bruijn EIF, Pan HL (1990) A high resolution air mass transformation model for short-range weather forecasting. Mon Wea Rev 118:1561–1575
Huffman GJ, Alder RF, Morrissey M, Bolvin D, Curtis S, Joyce R, McGavock B, Susskind J (2001) Global precipitation at one degree daily resolution from multi-satellite observations. J Hydrometeor 2:36–50
Janicot S (1992) Spatio-temporal variability of West African rainfall Part I: regionalizations and typings. J Clim 5:489–497
Janicot S, Harzallah A, Fontaine B, Moron V (1998) West African monsoon dynamics and eastern equatorial Atlantic and Pacific SST anomalies. J Clim 11:1874–1882
Janicot S, Trzask S, Poccard I (2001) Summer Sahel-ENSO teleconnection and decadal time scale SST variations. Clim Dyn 18:303–320
Janicot S, Thorncroft CD, Ali A, Asencio N, Berry G, Bock O, Bourles B, Ganiaux G, Chauvin F, Deme A, Kergoat L, Lafore JP, Lavaysse C, Lebel T, Marticorena B, Mounier F, Nedelec P, Redelsperger JL, Ravegnani F, Reeves CE, Roca R, de Rosnay P, Schlager H, Sultan B, Tomasini M, Ulanovsky A, ACMAD Forecasters Team (2008) Large-scale overview of the summer monsoon over West Africa during the AMMA field experiment in 2006. Ann Geophys 26: 2569–2595. http://www.anngeophys.net/26/2569/2008/
Köhler P, Bintanja R, Fischer H, Joos F, Knutti R, Lohmann G, Masson-Delmotte V (2010) What caused earth’s temperature variations during the last 800,000 years? Data-based evidence on radiative forcing and constraints on climate sensitivity. Quatern Sci Rev 29:129–145. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.09.026
Latif M (2001) Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Ocean interactions at multi-decadal time scales. Geophys Res Lett 28:539–542
Losada T, Rodriguez-Fonseca B, Janicot S, Gervois S, Chauvin F, Ruti P (2010) A multimodel approach to the Atlantic ecuatorial mode. Impact on the West African monsoon. Clim Dynam. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0625-5
Losada T, Rodriguez-Fonseca B, Mohino E, Bader J, Janicot S, Mechoso CR (2012) Tropical SST and Sahel rainfall: a nonstationary relationship. Geophys Res Lett 39:12. doi:10.1029/2012GL052423
Mackey R (2007) Rhodes Fairbridge and the idea that the solar system regulates the earth’s climate. J Coastal Res 50:955–968
Masson-Delmotte V, Stenni B, Pol K, Braconnot P, Cattani O, Fallourd S, Kageyama M, Jouzel J, Landais A, Minster B, Barnola JM, Chappellaz J, Krinner G, Johnsen S, Rothlisberger R, Hansen J, Mikolajewicz U, Otto-Bliesner B (2010) EPICA Dome C record of glacial and interglacial intensities. Quatern Sci Rev 29:113–128. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.09.030
Messager C, Gallée H, Brasseur O (2004) Precipitation sensitivity to regional SST in a regional climate simulation during the West African monsoon for two dry years. Clim Dyn 22:249–266. doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0381-x
Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climateatol 25:693–712
Mohino E, Rodriguez-Fonseca B, Mechoso CR, Gervois S, Ruti P, Chauvin F (2011) Impacts of the tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the seasonal cycle of the West African Monsoon. J Clim 24:3878–3891
Neupane N, Cook KH (2013) A nonlinear response of Sahel rainfall to Atlantic warming. J Climate 26:7080. doi:10.1175/JCL1-D-12-00475.1
New M, Hewitson B, Stephenson DB, Tsiga A, Kruger A, Manhique A, Gomez B, Coelho CAS, Masisi DN, Kululanga E, Mbambalala E, Adesina F, Saleh H, Kanyanga J, Adosi J, Bulane L, Fortunata L, Mdoka ML, Lajoie R (2006) Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and West Africa. J Geophys Res 111:D14102. doi:10.1029/2005JD006289
Nicholson SE, Webster PS (2007) A physical basis for the interannual variability of rainfall in the Sahel. Q J R Meteorol Soc 133:2065–2084
Oleson KW, Lawrence DM, Bonan GB, Drewniak B, Huang M, Koven CD, Levis S, Li F, Riley WJ, Subin ZM, Swenson SC, Thornton PE, Bozbiyik A, Fisher R, Heald CL, Kluzek E, Lamarque JF, Lawrence PJ, Leung LR, Lipscomb W, Muszala S, Ricciuto DM, Sacks W, Sun Y, Tang J, Yang Z-L (2013) Technical description of version 4.5 of the community land model (CLM), NCAR/TN-503 + STR NCAR Technical Note. NCAR Earth System Laboratory, Climate and Global Dynamics Division. Boulder, Colorado
Ollier C (2013) Global warming and climate change: science and politics. Quaestiones Geographicae Bogucki Wydawnictwo Naukowe Poznań 32(1):61–66. doi:10.2478/quageo-2013-0008 (ISSN 0137-477X)
Paeth H, Friedrich P (2004) Seasonality and time scales in the relationship between global SST and African rainfall. Clim Dyn 23:815–837
Pal JS, Small EE, Eltahir EAB (2000) Simulation of regional-scale water and energy budgets: representation of subgrid cloud and precipitation processes within RegCM. J Geophys Res Atmos 105(D24):29579–29594
Plub RA, Hou AY (1992) The response of a zonally symmetric atmosphere to subtropical thermal forcing. J Atmos Sci 49:1790–1799
Rohling EJ, Medina-Elizalde M, Shepherd JG, Siddall M, Stanford JD (2011) Sea surface and high-latitude temperature sensitivity to radiative forcing of climate over several glacial cycles. J Clim 25(5):1635–1656. doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4078.1171
Rowell DP, Folland CK, Maskell K, Ward MN (1995) Variability of summer rainfall over tropical north Africa (1906–92): observations and modelling. Q J R Meteorol Soc 121:669–674
Seager R, Naik N, Vogel L (2012) Does global warming cause intensified interannual hydroclimate variability? J Clim 25:3355–3372. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00363.1
Semazzi FHM, Sun L (1997) The role of orography in determining the Sahelian climate. Int J Climateatol 17:581–596
Shinoda M, Kawamura R (1994) Tropical rainbelt circulation and sea surface temperature associated with the Sahelian rainfall trend. J Meteor Soc Jpn 72:341–357
Sultan B, Janicot S (2003) The West African Monsoon dynamics. Part II: the ‘‘Preonset’’ and ‘‘Onset’’ of the summer monsoon. J Clim 16:3407–3427
Vizy EK, Cook KH (2002) Development and application of a mesoscale climate model for the tropics: influence of sea surface temperature anomalies on the West African monsoon. J Geophys Res 107(D3):4023. doi:10.1029/2001JD000686
Wang C (2003) ENSO, Atlantic climate variability, and the Walker and Hadley circulations. In: Diaz HF, Bradley RS (eds) The Hadley circulation: present, past and future ©2005. Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands, pp 173–202
Ward MN (1998) Diagnosis and short-lead time prediction of summer rainfall in tropical North Africa at interannual and multidecadal timescales. J Clim 11:3167–3191
Yin X, Gruber A, Arkinc P (2004) Comparison of the GPCP and CMAP merged guage-satellite monthly precipitation products for the period 1979–2001. J Hydromet 5:1207–1222
Yousef S, Ghilly LOM (2000) Alert El Sahel countries; drought is approaching. In: Proceedings of ICEHM2000. Cairo University, Egypt, pp 209–221
Zeng X, Zhao M, Dickinson RE (1998) Intercomparison of bulk aerodynamic algorithms for the computation of sea surface fluxes using TOGA COARE and TAO data. J Clim 11:2628–2644
Zhao Y, Zhang H (2016) Impacts of SST warming in tropical Indian Ocean on CMIP5 model-projected summer rainfall changes over Central Asia. Clim Dyn 46(9):3223–3238
Acknowledgments
The author acknowledges the Earth System Section of the ICTP at Trieste in Italy, for making RegCM4.4 available for usage in this investigation. The GPCP daily precipitation data set used for validation is retrieved from https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/gpcp-daily-global-precipitation-climatology-project. The CRU temperature (TS3.10) data set was made available by the BADC on behalf of the Cliimate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia. The EIN15 reanalysis data are extracted from the ECMWF NCEP Reanalysis data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Responsible Editor: S. Hong.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Adeniyi, M.O. Modeling the impact of changes in Atlantic sea surface temperature on the climate of West Africa. Meteorol Atmos Phys 129, 187–210 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0473-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0473-x