Abstract
Human-induced global climate change presents a unique and difficult challenge to the conservation of biodiversity. Despite increasing attention on global climate change, few studies have assessed the projected impacts of sea-level rise to threatened and endangered species. Therefore, we estimated the impacts of rising sea levels on the endangered Lower Keys marsh rabbit (Sylvilagus palustris hefneri) across its geographic distribution under scenarios of current conditions, low (0.3-m), medium (0.6-m), and high (0.9-m) sea-level rise. We also investigated the impacts of allowing vegetation to migrate upslope and not allowing migration and of two land-use planning decisions (protection and abandonment of human-dominated areas). Not surprisingly, under all simulations we found a general trend of decreasing total potential LKMR habitat with increasing sea-level rise. Not allowing migration and protecting human-dominated areas both tended to decrease potential LKMR habitat compared with allowing migration and abandoning human-dominated areas. In conclusion, conservation strategies at multiple scales need to be implemented in order to reduce the impact of global climate change on biodiversity and endangered species. At the regional level, managers must consider land-use planning needs that take into account the needs of both humans and biodiversity. Finally, at the local scale those agencies that are in charge of endangered species conservation and ecosystem management need to rethink static approaches to conservation or else stand by and watch ecosystems degrade and species go extinct. This can be accomplished by bioclimatic reserve systems where climatically underrepresented areas are included in conservation planning along with the standard concerns of threat, opportunity, connectivity, and viability.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bush MB, Silman MR, Urrego DH (2004) 48,000 years of climate and forest change in a biodiversity hot spot. Science 303:827–829
Chen E, Gerber JF (1990) Climate. In: Myers RL, Ewel JJ (eds.) Ecosystems of Florida. University of Central Florida Press, Orlando, pp 11–34
Daniels RC, White TW, Chapman KK (1993) Sea-level rise: destruction of threatened and endangered species habitat in South Carolina. Environmental Management 17:373–385
Faulhaber CA (2003) Updated distribution and reintroduction of the Lower Keys marsh rabbit. M.S. thesis, Texas A&M University, College Station
Feagin RA, Sherman DJ, Grant WE (2005) Coastal erosion, global sea-level rise, and the loss of sand dune plant habitats. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 3:359–364
Fish MR, Côté IM, Gill JA, Jones AP, Renshoff S, Watkinson AR (2005) Predicting the impact of sea-level rise on Caribbean sea turtle nesting habitat. Conservation Biology 19:482–491
Forys EA, Humphrey SR (1996) Home range and movements of the Lower Keys marsh rabbit in a highly fragmented habitat. Journal of Mammalogy 77:1042–1048
Forys EA, Humphrey SR (1999a) Use of population viability analysis to evaluate management options for the endangered Lower Keys marsh rabbit. Journal of Wildlife Management 63:251–260
Forys EA, Humphrey SR (1999b) The importance of patch attributes and context to the management and recovery of an endangered lagomorph. Landscape Ecology 14:177–185
Grabherr G, Gottfried M, Pauli H (1994) Climate effects on mountain plants. Nature 369:448
Howe SE (1988) Lower Keys marsh rabbit status survey. United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Jacksonville Field Station, Jacksonville, FL
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2001) Climate change 2001. Cambridge University Press, New York
Leatherman SP, Zhang K, Douglas BC (2000) Sea level rise shown to drive coastal erosion. Eos 81:55–57
Lee JK, Park RA, Mausel PW (1992) Application of geoprocessing and simulation modeling to estimate impacts of sea level rise on the northeast coast of Florida. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 58:1579–1586
Mauhl GA, Martin DM (1993) Sea level rise at Key West, Florida, 1846–1992: America’s longest running instrument record? Geophysical Research Letters 20:1955–1958
Meehl GA, Washington WM, Collins WD, Arblaster JM, Hu A, Buja LE, Strand WG, Teng H (2005) How much more global warming and sea level rise? Science 307:1769–1772
Michener WK, Blood ER, Bildstein KL, Brinson MM, Gardner LR (1997) Climate change, hurricanes and tropical storms, and rising sea level in coastal wetlands. Ecological Applications 7:770–801
Midgley GF, Hannah L, Millar D, Rutherford MC, Powrie LW (2002) Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspot. Global Ecology & Biogeography 11:445–451
Moorhead KK, Brinson MM. (1995) Response of wetlands to rising sea level in the lower coastal plain of North Carolina. Ecological Applications 5:261–271
Noss RF (2001) Beyond Kyoto: forest management in a time of rapid climate change. Conservation Biology 15:578–590
Overpcek JT, Otto -Bliesner BL, Miller GH, Muhs DR, Alley RB, Kiehl JT (2006) Paleoclimatic evidence for future ice-sheet instability and rapid sea-level rise. Science 311:1747–1750
Parmesan C (1996) Climate and species range. Nature 382:765–766
Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37–42
Parmesan C, Ryrholm N, Stefanescu C, Hill JK, Thomas CD, Descimon H, Huntley B, Kaila L, Kullberg J, Tammaru T, Tennent WJ, Thomas JA, Warren M (1999) Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming. Nature 399:579–583
Pearson RG, Dawson TP (2003) Prediction the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: Are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology & Biogeography 12:361–371
Pounds JA, Fogden LPM, Campbell JH (1999) Biological responses to climate change on a tropical mountain. Nature 398:611–615
Pounds JA, Bustamante MR, Coloma LA, Consuegra JA, Fodgen MPL, Foster PN, La Marca E, Masters KL, Merino -Viteri A, Puschendorf R, Ron SR, Sánchez-Azofeifa GA, Still CJ, Young BE (2006) Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming. Nature 439:161–167
Pyke CR (2004) Habitat loss confounds climate change impacts. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2:178–182
Pyke CR, Fischer DT (2005) Selection of bioclimatically representative biological reserve systems under climate change. Biological Conservation 121:429–441
Rahmstorf S, von Storch H, Zorita E, Jones J, Gonzalez -Rouco F, Tett S (2006) Testing climate reconstructions. Science 312:1872–1873
Ross MS, O’Brien JJ, Sternberg LdS (1994) Sea-level rise and the reduction in pine forests in the Florida Keys. Ecological Applications 4:144–156
Shriver WG, Gibbs JP (2004) Seaside sparrows (Ammodramus maritimus) in Connecticut: projected effects of sea-level rise. In: Akçakaya HR, Burgman MA, Kindvall O, Wood CC, Sjögren-Gulve P, Hatfield JS, McCarthy MA (eds.), Species conservation and management: case studies. Oxford University Press, New York, pp 397–409
Simas T, Nunes JP, Ferreira JG (2001) Effects of global climate change on coastal salt marshes. Ecological Modelling 139:1–15
Thomas CD, Lennon JJ (1999) Birds extend their ranges northwards. Nature 399:213
Titus JG (1991) Greenhouse effect and coastal wetland policy: how Americans could abandon an area the size of Massachusetts at minimum cost. Environmental Management 15:39–58
Titus JG, Richman C (2001) Maps of lands vulnerable to sea level rise: modeled elevations along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Climate Research 18:205–228
USFWS (United States Fish and Wildlife Service). (1990) Endangered and threatened wildlife and plants: endangered status for the Lower Keys rabbit and threatened status for the Squirrel Chimney cave shrimp. Federal Register 55:25588–25591
USFWS (United States Fish and Wildlife Service) (1999) South Florida multi-species recovery plan. USFWS, Atlanta, GA
Williams K, Ewel KC, Stumpf RP, Putz FE, Workman TW (1999) Sea-level rise and coastal forest retreat on the west coast of Florida, USA. Ecology 80:2045–2063
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank Amy Snelgrove for GIS assistance and Kristin LaFever for critical review of the manuscript. We would also like to thank Craig Faulhaber, Neil Perry, and Elizabeth Forys for allowing us the use of their data as well as their insights into LKMR natural history and ecology. D.H.L. would like to thank the United States Navy Southern Research Division, in particular, Rodney Fleming, for funding his graduate research.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
LaFever, D.H., Lopez, R.R., Feagin, R.A. et al. Predicting the Impacts of Future Sea-Level Rise on an Endangered Lagomorph. Environmental Management 40, 430–437 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-006-0204-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-006-0204-z