Conclusion
Unfortunately, we do not know how closely WPSM simulates the regional impact process, since we cannot observe the economy's “true” multipliers. Nor are we on sound empirical grounds for concluding that WPSM's simulation properties are necessarily superior to those of other state models, such as the static input-output formulation.
Nevertheless, considering WPSM's economic structure, which has been subjected to an array of empirical tests, the model is an appealing tool for impact analysis. In spite of its current shortcomings, WPSM's four-way accounting of the dynamic behavior of output, income, expenditures, and employment within an interindustry framework offers three attractive attibutes: an explicit, logical, yet flexible structure; a detailed and comprehensive coverage of economic variables; and internally consistent projections. Drawing upon a pool of time-series and cross-section data WPSM attempts to combine the best features of more traditional specifications of regional econometric and input-output models.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adams, F. G., C. Brooking, and N. J. Glickman. “On the Specification and Simulation of a Regional Econometric Model: A Model of Mississippi,”Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 57 (1975), pp. 286–298.
Almon, C., Jr., M. B. Buckler, L. M. Horwitz, and T. C. Reimbold.1985:Interindustry Forecasts of the American Economy. Lexington, Mass: Lexington Books, 1974.
Bell, F. W. “An Econometric Forecasting Model for a Region,”Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 7 (1967), pp. 109–127.
Beyers, W. B., P. J. Bourque, W. R. Seyfried, and E. E. Weeks. “Input-Output Tables for the Washington Economy,” Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Washington, Seattle, 1970.
Bourque, P. J., and R. S. Conway, Jr. “The 1972 Washington Input-Output Study,” Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Washington, Seattle, 1977.
—, and C. T. Howard. “The Washington Projection and Simulation Model,” Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Washington, Seattle, 1977.
——, and E. Weeks, “Detailed Input-Output Tables for Washington, State, 1963,” Washington State University, Pullman, 1969.
Conway, R. S., Jr. “The Hawaii Population and Economic Forecasting Model,” Working Paper, State of Hawaii Department of Planning and Economic Development, Honolulu, 1977.
Conway, R. S., Jr. “The Aluminum Industry in Washington State: Jobs, Income, and Electrical Energy,” Working Paper, Washington State Department of Commerce and Economic Development, 1978.
—— “International Trade and the Washington State Economy: The Impact of Foreign Exports, 1963–1985,” Washington State Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Olympia, 1978.
Conway, R. S., Jr., and C. T. Howard. “A Forecasting Model for Regional Housing Investment,”Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 20 (1980).
Crow, R. T. “A Nationally Linked Regional Econometric Model,”Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 13 (1973), pp. 187–204.
Emerson, M. J.Interindustry Projections of the Kansas Economy. Topeka: State of Kansas, 1971.
Glickman, N. J.Econometric Analysis of Regional Systems. New York: Academic Press, 1977.
Governor's Ad Hoc Executive Water Emergency Committee. “The 1976–1977 Drought in Washington State,” Office of the Governor, Washington State, Olympia, 1978.
Hall, O. P., and J. A. Licari. “Building Small Region Econometric Models: Extension of Glickman's Structure to Los Angeles,”Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 14 (1974), pp. 337–353.
L'Esperance, W. L., A. E. King, and R. H. Sines. “Conjoining an Ohio Input-Output Model with an Econometric Model of Ohio,” presented at the 22nd annual meeting of the Regional Science Association, 1975.
Preston, R. S.The Wharton Annual and Industry Forecasting Model. Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, 1972.
Tiebout, C. M. “An Empirical Regional Input-Output Projection Model: The, State of Washington 1980,”Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 51 (1969), pp. 334–340.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.The Structure of the U.S. Economy in 1980 and 1985. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Labor, 1975.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Conway, R.S. Simulation properties of a regional interindustry econometric model. Papers of the Regional Science Association 43, 45–57 (1979). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01935606
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01935606