Uncertainty Quantification in Volcanology: Observations, Numerical Modelling and Hazard/Risk Assessment

The observation and modelling of volcanic phenomena is always affected by a certain degree of uncertainty, both epistemic (i.e. related to incomplete knowledge of the phenomena) and aleatoric (i.e. representing the physical variability typical of complex natural systems). While uncertainty can be reduced, it can never be fully eliminated. For instance, the uncertainty does not necessarily make any model or data invalid; rather, effective assessments should (1) identify limitations, (2) support model calibration, validation and benchmarking, and (3) provide confidence in measurements and predictions. In particular, the study of volcanic hazard in a probabilistic framework (PVHA) has become one of the most rapidly developing topics in volcanology, with key applications in decision making and risk mitigation actions. A number of numerical tools have been developed to help scientists applying quantitative methods in different volcanic settings. These methods are essential for reproducing pre-eruptive and post-eruptive volcanic processes under different conditions and over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In this Special Issue we welcome contributions about: - uncertainty quantification of volcanic phenomena, with a specific focus on physical processes and/or hazard/risk assessments and maps; - uncertainty quantification of numerical models and laboratory data in volcanology. Examples include model validation and benchmarking studies, multi-model approaches; - the use of numerical modeling in long and short-term PVHA, with particular attention to hazard and risk communication, education programs and civil protection purposes.