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Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States pp 126–147Cite as

Future Climate: Projected Extremes

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Part of the book series: NCA Regional Input Reports ((NCARIR))

Abstract

Extreme events can be defined in many ways. Typical definitions of weather and climate extremes consider either the maximum value during a specified time interval (such as season or year) or exceedance of a threshold (the “peaks-over-threshold” [POT] approach), in which universal rather than local thresholds are frequently applied. For example, temperatures above 95°F (35°C) are often considered extreme in most locations across the United States, except in areas such as the low-lying deserts of Arizona and California, where such temperatures are typical in the summer. Temperatures at these levels are obviously extreme for living organisms from a non-adapted, physiological perspective, and technological adaptation for humans is required for day-to-day functioning in such temperatures. But such temperatures are not necessarily extreme from the statistical or local climate perspectives. In statistics, extremes are considered low-probability events that differ greatly from typical occurrences. The IPCC defines extremes as 1% to 10% of the largest or smallest values of a distribution (Trenberth et al. 2007). Studies over large or complex regions marked by significant climatic variation require definitions that are relevant to local climate. Across the Southwest, location-specific definitions of extreme temperature, precipitation, humidity, and wind are required if a meaningful region-wide perspective is desired.

Chapter citation: Gershunov, A., B. Rajagopalan, J. Overpeck, K. Guirguis, D. Cayan, M. Hughes, M. Dettinger, C. Castro, R. E. Schwartz, M. Anderson, A. J. Ray, J. Barsugli, T. Cavazos, and M. Alexander. 2013. “Future Climate: Projected Extremes.” In Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, edited by G. Garfin, A. Jardine, R. Merideth, M. Black, and S. LeRoy, 126–147. A report by the Southwest Climate Alliance. Washington, DC: Island Press.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, USA

    Alexander Gershunov

  2. University of Colorado, USA

    Balaji Rajagopalan

  3. University of Arizona, USA

    Jonathan Overpeck, Chris Castro & Francina Dominguez

  4. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA

    Kristen Guirguis, Dan Cayan & Rachel E. Schwartz

  5. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA], USA

    Mimi Hughes

  6. U.S. Geological Survey, USA

    Michael Dettinger

  7. California State Climate Office, USA

    Michael Anderson

  8. NOAA, USA

    Andrea J. Ray & Michael Alexander

  9. University of Colorado/Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, USA

    Joe Barsugli

  10. Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada, USA

    Tereza Cavazos

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  1. Alexander Gershunov
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  2. Balaji Rajagopalan
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  14. Michael Alexander
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of the Environment, University of Arizona, N. Park Ave Ste. 532 845, 85721, Tucson, Arizona, USA

    Gregg Garfin

  2. University of Arizona, USA

    Angela Jardine , Robert Merideth , Mary Black  & Sarah LeRoy , ,  & 

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Gershunov, A. et al. (2013). Future Climate: Projected Extremes. In: Garfin, G., Jardine, A., Merideth, R., Black, M., LeRoy, S. (eds) Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States. NCA Regional Input Reports. Island Press, Washington, DC. https://doi.org/10.5822/978-1-61091-484-0_7

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