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Future Climate: Projected Average

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Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States

Part of the book series: NCA Regional Input Reports ((NCARIR))

Abstract

Global climate models (GCMs) are the fundamental drivers of regional climate-change projections (IPCC 2007). GCMs allow us to characterize changes in atmospheric circulation associated with human causes at global and continental scales. However, because of the planetary scope of the GCMs, their resolution, or level of detail, is somewhat coarse. A typical GCM grid spacing is about 62 miles (100 km) or greater, which is inadequate for creating projections and evaluating impacts of climate change at a regional scale. Thus, a “downscaling” procedure is needed to provide finer spatial detail of the model results.

Chapter citation: Cayan, D., M. Tyree, K. E. Kunkel, C. Castro, A. Gershunov, J. Barsugli, A. J. Ray, J. Overpeck, M. Anderson, J. Russell, B. Rajagopalan, I. Rangwala, and P. Duffy. 2013. “Future Climate: Projected Average.” In Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, edited by G. Garfin, A. Jardine, R. Merideth, M. Black, and S. LeRoy, 101–125. A report by the Southwest Climate Alliance. Washington, DC: Island Press.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, USA

    Daniel R. Cayan, Mary Tyree & Alexander Gershunov

  2. U.S. Geological Survey, USA

    Daniel R. Cayan

  3. NOAA Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, North Carolina State University and National Climate Data Center, USA

    Kenneth E. Kunkel

  4. University of Arizona, USA

    Chris Castro, Jonathan Overpeck & Joellen Russell

  5. University of Colorado, CIRES, USA

    Joseph Barsugli

  6. NOAA, USA

    Andrea J. Ray

  7. California Department of Water Resources, USA

    Michael Anderson

  8. University of Colorado, USA

    Balaji Rajagopalan

  9. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, USA

    Imtiaz Rangwala

  10. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA

    Phil Duffy

  11. University of Massachusetts, USA

    Mathew Barlow

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  1. Daniel R. Cayan
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of the Environment, University of Arizona, N. Park Ave Ste. 532 845, 85721, Tucson, Arizona, USA

    Gregg Garfin

  2. University of Arizona, USA

    Angela Jardine , Robert Merideth , Mary Black  & Sarah LeRoy , ,  & 

Endnotes

Endnotes

  1. i

    The BCSD method removes bias in the climate model output by mapping from the probability distribution of a current climate simulation to the probability distribution of observations on a monthly basis.

  2. ii

    For downscaling simulated surface temperature from the GCMs, the BCSD methodology preserves GCM (large-scale) trends by removing them initially and adding them back after the downscaling is implemented. For downscaling simulated precipitation, no explicit step is included in BCSD to preserve the GCM trends, because trends are not so obviously present. Other inherent weaknesses of the BCSD approach are the assumption of climate “stationarity” — the idea that statistical relationships developed in a historical period are applicable to a future period — and the underestimation of variability (Wilby et al. 2004; Milly et al. 2008).

  3. iii

    VIC is a macroscale, distributed, physically based hydrologic model that balances both surface energy and water over a grid mesh. For this report, VIC simulations, run from BCSD downscaled precipitation and temperature data, were employed.

  4. iv

    CMIP3 is phase 3 of the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.

  5. v

    With a baseline of 65 °F, heating degree days are the sum of the temperature differences of the daily mean temperature subtracted from 65 °F, for all days when the mean temperature is less than 65 °F. Cooling degree days are calculated similarly, but for when the mean temperature exceeds 65 °F.

  6. vi

    Cyclones are the rapid circulation of winds around a low pressure center, traveling counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. Anticyclones spiral out from a high pressure area and travel clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and counterclockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.

  7. vii

    CNRM-C3 is the third version of a global ocean-atmosphere model originally developed at the Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, France.

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Cayan, D.R. et al. (2013). Future Climate: Projected Average. In: Garfin, G., Jardine, A., Merideth, R., Black, M., LeRoy, S. (eds) Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States. NCA Regional Input Reports. Island Press, Washington, DC. https://doi.org/10.5822/978-1-61091-484-0_6

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