Abstract
In the semiarid Barind region, episodes of agricultural droughts of varying severity have occurred. The occurrence of these agricultural droughts is associated with rainfall variability and can be reflected by soil moisture deficit that significantly affects crop performance and yield. In the present study, an analysis of long-term (1971–2010) rainfall data of 12 rain monitoring stations in the Barind region was carried out using a Markov chain model which provides a drought index for predicting the spatial and temporal extent of agricultural droughts. Inverse distance weighted interpolation was used to map the spatial extent of drought in a GIS environment. The results indicated that in the Pre-Kharif season drought occurs almost every year in different parts of the study area. Though occurrence of drought is less frequent in the Kharif season the minimum probability of wet weeks leads to reduction in crop yields. Meanwhile, the calculation of 12 months drought suggests that severe to moderate drought is a common phenomenon in this area. Drought index is also found to vary depending on the length of period. The return period analysis suggests that chronic drought is more frequent in the Pre-Kharif season and the frequency of moderate droughts is higher in the Kharif season. On the contrary severe drought is more frequent for a 12-month period.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Alam ATMJ (2010) Spatial and temporal characteristics of agricultural drought at Barind region, Bangladesh: an application of GIS and Markov chain model. Master’s thesis, submitted to the Department of Environmental Sciences, Jahangirnagar University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Alam ATMJ, Saadat AHM, Rahman MS, Barkotulla MAB (2011) Spatial analysis of rainfall distribution and its impact on agricultural drought at Barind region, Bangladesh. Rajshahi Univ J Environ Sci 1(1):40–50
Alam ATMJ, Rahman MS, Saadat AHM (2012a) Comparison of threshold values of Markov chain for determining agricultural drought at Barind, Bangladesh. In: Abstract of North Bengal drought conference (NBDC) 2012 on sharing knowledge combating climate change disaster, University of Rajshahi and Kakonhat, 27–28 March 2012, p 21
Alam ATMJ, Rahman MS, Saadat AHM, Huq MM (2012b) Gamma distribution and its application of spatially monitoring meteorological drought in Barind, Bangladesh. J Environ Sci Nat Resour 5(2):287–293
Alam ATMJ, Saadat AHM, Rahman MS, Rahman S (2013) Spatio-temporal variation of agricultural drought in the Barind region of Bangladesh: An application of Markov chain model, Irrig. and Drain. doi: 10.1002/ird.1800
Al-Salihi AH (2003) Drought identification and characterization in Jordan. J Arid Environ 53:585–606
Anderson TW, Goodman LA (1957) Statistical inference about Markov chains. Ann Math Stat 28:89–110
Banik P, Mandal A, Rahman MS (2002) Markov chain analysis of weekly rainfall data in determining drought-proneness. Discrete Dyn Nat Soc 7:231–239
Barkotulla MAB (2007) Markov Chain analysis of rainfall in agricultural drought of Barind region. Ph. D. thesis, submitted to the Department of Statistics, University of Rajshahi, Bangladesh
Ben-Zvi A (1987) Indices of hydrological drought in Israel. J Hydrol 92:179–191
Biamah EK, Sterk G, Sharma TC (2005) Analysis of agricultural drought in Iiuni Eastern Kenya: application of Markov model. Hydrol Process 19:1307–1322
Brammer H (1987) Drought in Bangladesh, lessons for planners and administrators. Disasters 11:21–29
Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X, Held I, Jones R, Kolli RK, Kwon WT, Laprise R, Magaña Rueda V, Mearns L, Menéndez CG, Räisänen J, Rinke A, Sarr A, Whetton P (2007) Regional climate projections. In: Solomon SD, Qin M, Manning Z, Chen M, Marquis KB, Averyt MT, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Darcup JA, Lee KS, Paulson EG (1980) On the definition of drought. Water Resour Res 16:297–302
Dey NC, Alam MS, Sajjan AK, Bhuiyan MA, Ghose L, Ibaraki Y, Karim F (2011) Assessing environmental and health impact of drought in the Northwest Bangladesh. J Environ Sci Nat Resour 4(2):89–97
Heathcote RL (1974) Drought in South Australia. In: White GF (ed) Natural hazards: local, national, global. Oxford University Press, New York
Heim RR Jr (2002) A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83(8):1149–1165
Jimoh OD, Webster P (1999) Optimum order of Markov chain for daily rainfall in Nigeria. J Hydrol 185:45–69
Johnston K, Ver Hoof JM, Krivoruchko K, Lucas N (2001) Using ArcGIS™ geostatistical analyst. ESRI, Redlands
Kazt RW (1974) Computing probabilistic associated with the Markov chain model for precipitation. J Appl Meteorol 53:953–958
Medhi J (1994) Stochastic process. New Age International Publishers, New Delhi
Moslehuddin AZM, Habibullah MM, Egashira K (2008) Mineralogy of soils from different agroecological regions of Bangladesh: region 25—level Barind tract and region 27—north–eastern Barind tract. J Fac Agric Kyushu Univ 53(1):163–169
Ochola WO, Kerkidis P (2003) A Markov chain simulation model for predicting critical wet and dry spells in Kenya: analysing rainfall events in the Kanoplains. Irrig Drain 52:327–342
Paul BK (1998) Coping mechanisms practiced by drought victims (1994/5) in North Bengal, Bangladesh. Appl Geogr 18:355–373
Rahman MS (1999a) A stochastic simulated Markov chain model for daily rainfall at Barind, Bangladesh. J Interdiscip Math 2(1):7–32
Rahman MS (1999b) Logistic regression estimation of a simulated Markov chain model for daily rainfall in Bangladesh. J Interdiscip Math 2(1):33–40
Rahman MS (2000) A rainfall simulation model for agricultural development in Bangladesh. Discrete Dyn Nat Soc 5:1–7
Rahman M, Alam ATMJ, Saadat AHM (2012) Assessment of groundwater potential for irrigation in Barind region Bangladesh: an application of TMWB model. In: Proceedings of the second international conference on environmental technology and construction engineering for sustainable development, 10–12 March 2012, Sylhet, Bangladesh, pp 357–361
Ramsey S, Subbia AR, Bass S, Juergens I (2007) Livelihood adaptation to climate variability and change in drought-prone areas of Bangladesh. Asian Disaster Preparedness Center Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome
Saadat AHM, Alam ATMJ, Alam M, Shovon J, Uzzaman R (2009) Impact of drought on agriculture of Barind tract: a case study of Dharmapur Chapainawabgang. In: Workshop on impacts of climate change on livelihoods, agriculture, aquaculture and fisheries sector of Bangladesh, BAU, Mymensingh, 1 Oct 2009, pp 54–64
Shahid S (2008) Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in the western part of Bangladesh. Hydrol Process 22:2235–2247
Shahid S (2010) Spatio-temporal variation of aridity and dry period in term of irrigation demand in Bangladesh, American–Eurasian Journal of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences 7(4): 386–396
Shahid S (2011) Impact of climate change on irrigation water demand of dry season Boro rice in northwest Bangladesh. Clim Change 105:433–453
Shahid S, Behrawan H (2008) Drought risk assessment in the western part of Bangladesh. Nat Hazards 46:391–413. doi:10.1007/s11069-007-9191-5
Sharma TC (1996) Simulation of the Kenyan longest dry and wet spells and the longest rain-sums using a Markov model. J Hydrol 178:55–67
Yasmin R (2008) Ground water modelling of the north-eastern part of Barind tract for its sustainable development and management, Bangladesh. Asian J Inf Technol 7(5):218–225
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Alam, A.T.M.J., Rahman, M.S., Sadaat, A.H.M. (2014). Markov Chain Analysis of Weekly Rainfall Data for Predicting Agricultural Drought. In: Islam, T., Srivastava, P., Gupta, M., Zhu, X., Mukherjee, S. (eds) Computational Intelligence Techniques in Earth and Environmental Sciences. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8642-3_6
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8642-3_6
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-017-8641-6
Online ISBN: 978-94-017-8642-3
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)