The international policy dimension of sustainability — the effect of policy harmonization within the EU using the GEM-E3 model

Abstract

Current CO₂ emission will lead to a pattern of greenhouse gas accumulation that is not sustainable. World wide CO₂ emissions have increased by 10% from 1985 to 1992. Some industrial countries have had growth rates of more than 30% (Portugal, Greece, Ireland), and concern for the potential climate implications from energy consumption has raised the desirability of policy harmonization, although this desirability is not shared by all countries. There is still a debate about how much damage is actually being done to the environment. Many environmentalists and governments are concerned that excessive emissions of CO₂ are irreversibly warming the planet. Others, however, feel that the evidence is insufficient at this point and are unwilling to alter their environmental policy significantly. The surface records show, however, that the earth has warmed by about half a degree in the past century and that the warming has accelerated in the past two decades. Mainstream climatologists say the warming probably has been caused, at least in part, by emissions of heat-trapping waste industrial gases such as CO₂, and they estimate that the surface will warm by about another 1.5°; over the next century if emissions are not reduced. One consequence of a warmer earth, scientists say, would be heavier precipitation; a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. US government researchers say they have, in fact, linked this century’s warming to a 20% increase in heavy precipitation in the United States. The problem with environmental damage such as global warming is, however, that the appropriate policy may need to be implemented before conclusive proof that the damage due to the cumulative effect will occur is available.