The Psychological Concept of Subjective Probability: A MeasurementTheoretic View
 Thomas S. Wallsten
 … show all 1 hide
Abstract
A point of view is presented concerning the psychological concept of subjective probability, both to study its relation to the corresponding mathematical and philosophical concepts and to provide a framework for the rigorous investigation of problems unique to psychology. In order to do this the empirical implications of axiom systems for measurement are discussed first, relying primarily on Krantz’s work, with special emphasis, however, on some similarities and differences between psychological and physical variables. The psychological variable of uncertainty is then examined in this light, and it is concluded that few, if any, current theories of subjective probability are satisfactory when viewed from this perspective, including those deriving from the mathematical work in the axiomatic foundations of probability. This might appear to pose difficulties for applications to real problems of normative decision theory when those applications require numerical probability judgments from individuals. Two possible solutions are discussed briefly
 Alpert, M, Raiffa, H (1969) A Progress Report on the Training of Probability Assessors.
 Beach, LR, Phillips, L (1967) Subjective Probabilities Inferred from Estimates and Bets. Journal of Experimental Psychology 75: pp. 354359 CrossRef
 Becker, SW, Brownson, FO (1964) What Price Ambiguity? Or the Role of Ambiguity in Decision Making. The Journal of Political Economy 72: pp. 6273 CrossRef
 Campbell, NR (1957) Foundations of Science: the Philosophy of Theory and Experiment.
 Davidson, P, Suppes, P, Siegel, S (1957) Decision Making An Experimental Approach.
 Finetti, B (1937) La Provision: Ses Lois Logiques. Sei Sources Subjective. Annales de l’Institut Henri Poiniure 7: pp. 168
 Groot, MH (1970) Optimal Statistical Decisions.
 Edwards, W., ‘Conservatism in Human Information Processine.’, in B. Kleinmuntz (ed.). Formal Representation of Human Judgment New York. pp. 17–52.
 Ellsberg, D (1961) Risk. Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms. Quarterly Journal of Economia 75: pp. 641669
 Fishbum, P (1967) PrcfcrenccBased Definitions of Subjective Probability. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 38: pp. 16051617 CrossRef
 Fishbum, P (1969) Weak Qualitative Probability on Finite Sets. The Annals of MathematicaI Statistics 40: pp. 21182126 CrossRef
 Fishburn, P (1970) Utility Theory for Decision Making.
 Hoffman, J, Peterson, CC (1972) A Scoring Rule to Train Probability Assessor.
 Irwin, FW (1971) Intentional Behavior and Motivation: A Cognitive Theory.
 Kahneman, D, Tversky, A (1972) Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness. Cognitive Psychology 3: pp. 430454 CrossRef
 Koch, S eds. (1959) Psychology A Study of a Science.
 Koopman, BO (1940) The Axiomsand Algebra of Intuitive Probability. Annals of Mathematics 41: pp. 269292 CrossRef
 Kraft, CH, Pratt, JW, Scidenberg, A (1959) Intuitive Probability on Finite Sets. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 30: pp. 408419 CrossRef
 Krantz, DH A Survey of Measurement Theory. In: Danzig, GB, Veinott, AF eds. (1968) Mathematics of the Decision Sciences. Part 2. pp. 314350
 Krantz, DH (1972) Measurement Structures and Psychological Laws. Science 175: pp. 14271435 CrossRef
 Krantz, DH (1972) Measurement Theory and Qualitative Laws in Psychophysics.
 Krantz, DH, Luce, RD, Suppes, P, Tversky, A (1971) Foundations of Measurement.
 Krantz, DH, Tversky, A (1971) Conjoint Measurement Analysis of Composition Rules in Psychology. Psychological Review 78: pp. 151169 CrossRef
 Luce, RD (1967) Sufficient Conditions for the Existence of a Finitely Additive Probability Measure, The. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 38: pp. 780786 CrossRef
 Luce, RD (1972) What Sort of Measurement Is Psychophysical Measurement?. American Psychologist 27: pp. 96106 CrossRef
 Luce, RD, Krantz, DH (1971) Conditional Expected Utility. Econometrica 39: pp. 253271 CrossRef
 Luce, RD, Tukey, JW (1964) Simultaneous Conjoint Measurement: A New Type of Fundamental Measurement. Journal of Mathematical Psychology 1: pp. 127 CrossRef
 MacCorquodale, K, Meehl, PE (1948) On a Distinction Between Hypothetical Constructs and Intervening Variables. Psychological Reviev 55: pp. 95107 CrossRef
 Marx, MH (1964) Theories in Contemporary Psychology.
 Murphy, AH, Epstein, ES (1967) Verfication of Probabilistic Predictions: A Brief Review. Journal of Applied Meteorology 6: pp. 745755
 Murphy, AH, Winkler, RL (1970) Scoring Rules in Probability Assessment and Evaluation. Acta Psychology 34: pp. 273286 CrossRef
 Murphy, AH, Winkler, RL (1971) Forecasts and Probability Forecasts: Some Current Problems. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 52: pp. 239247 CrossRef
 Pratt, JW, Raiffa, H, Schlaifer, R (1965) Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory.
 Rapoport, A, Wallsten, TS (1972) Individual Decision Behavior. Annual Review of Psychology 23: pp. 131176 CrossRef
 Savage, LJ (1954) The Foundations of Statistics.
 Staël von Holstein, CAS (1970) Assessment and Evaluation of Subjective Probability Distributions.
 Tolman, EC (1936) Operational Behaviorism and Current Trends in Psychology. Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles
 Tversky, A (1967) Additivity, Utility, and Subjective Probability. Journal of Mathematical Psychology 4: pp. 175201 CrossRef
 Tversky, A, Kahneman, D (1972) Availability as a Determinant of Frequency and Probability Judgments.
 Villigas, C (1964) On Qualitative Probability σAlgebras. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 35: pp. 17871796 CrossRef
 Villigas, C (1967) On Qualitative Probability. American Mathematical Monthly 74: pp. 661669 CrossRef
 Neuman, J, Morgenyem, O (1944) Theory of Games and Economic Behavior.
 Wallsten, TS (1970) Subjects Probability Estimates and Subjectively Expected Utility Theory: Their Relationship and Some Limitations.
 Wallsten, TS (1971) Subjectively Expected Utility Theory and Subjects Probability Estimates: Use of MeasurementFree Techniques. Journal of Experimental Psychology 88: pp. 3140 CrossRef
 Wallsten, TS (1972) Conjoint Measurement Framework for the Study of Probabilistic Information Processing. Psychological Reviews 79: pp. 245260 CrossRef
 Winkler, RL (1967) The Assessment of Prior Distributions in Bayesian Analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association 62: pp. 776800 CrossRef
 Winkler, RL (1968) The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions. Management Science 15: pp. B61B75 CrossRef
 Winkler, RL, Murphy, AH (1968) Good Probability Assessors. Journal of Applleii Meteorology 7: pp. 751758 CrossRef
 Wise, JA (1970) Origins ol Subjective Probability. Acta Psychology 34: pp. 287299 CrossRef
 Title
 The Psychological Concept of Subjective Probability: A MeasurementTheoretic View
 Book Title
 The Concept of Probability in Psychological Experiments
 Pages
 pp 4972
 Copyright
 1974
 DOI
 10.1007/9789401022880_4
 Print ISBN
 9789401022903
 Online ISBN
 9789401022880
 Series Title
 Theory and Decision Library
 Series Volume
 8
 Series Subtitle
 An International Series in the Philosophy and Methodology of the Social and Behavioral Sciences
 Publisher
 Springer Netherlands
 Copyright Holder
 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
 Additional Links
 Topics
 eBook Packages
 Editors
 Editor Affiliations

 3. Stanford Research Institute
 Authors

 Thomas S. Wallsten ^{(4)}
 Author Affiliations

 4. L. L. Thurstone Psychometric Laboratory, Department of Psychology, University of North Carolina, USA
Continue reading...
To view the rest of this content please follow the download PDF link above.