Chapter

Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change

pp 40-49

Mechanism of the Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Frequency Changes due to Global Warming

  • Masato SugiAffiliated withJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology Email author 
  • , Hiroyuki MurakamiAffiliated withJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
  • , Jun YoshimuraAffiliated withMeteorological Research Institute

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Abstract

Recent high resolution models consistently show that the global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency will decrease in the future due to global warming (Knutson et al., 2010). Sugi et al. (2002) pointed out that the reduction of global TC frequency in the future is closely related to the weakening of upward mass flux in the tropics. Recently, Sugi and Yoshimura (2012) found a clear decreasing trend of global TC frequency throughout the 228-year simulation for the period 1872-2099, which is also closely related to a decreasing trend of upward mass flux.