Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Risk Assessment

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Climate Change and United States Forests

Part of the book series: Advances in Global Change Research ((AGLO,volume 57))

Abstract

Climate change will generally increase the risk of negative consequences to forests and associated biosocial systems. Risk management identifies risks, estimating their probability of occurrence and magnitude of impact. A risk framework provides a means to quantify what is known, identify where uncertainties exist, and help resource managers develop strategies with better knowledge of risks. Case studies were used to illustrate how risk assessment can be used to assess critical resources and functions. For water, the ratio of precipitation (P) to potential evapotranspiration (PET) was examined across the United States as a means of assessing risk; forests where PET is expected to exceed P (especially in the Southwest) in the future will be most vulnerable. For carbon (C), the transition between being a C sink to being a source was a critical feature of risk assessment; vegetation change from forest to non-forest created the biggest risk for C emissions (loss of C storage). For wildfire in the West, risk assessment focused on frequency, severity, and annual area burned; the latter component of fire regimes is expected to increase greatly in future decades, creating rapid shifts in forest structure and function. For forest species distribution, bioclimatic envelopes were used to assess future changes; in Eastern forests, risk of altered distribution will be relatively high for some hardwood species and will depend on how disturbances change. For bird species distribution, species vulnerabilities were based on empirical models that include habitat, physiology, phenology, and biotic interactions; habitat specialists will generally be more vulnerable to climate change than generalists. Risk assessment must consider the biosocial context of the system being evaluated, reflecting contributions of ecosystem services and the capability of forest systems to withstand stress.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Allen, R. D., Smith, M., Perrier, A., & Pereira, L. S. (1994). An update for the definition of reference evapotranspiration. ICID Bulletin, 43, 1–34.

    Google Scholar 

  • Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Chenchouni, H., et al. (2010). A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. Forest Ecology and Management, 259, 660–684.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anders, A. D., & Post, E. (2006). Distribution-wide effects of climate on population densities of a declining migratory landbird. Journal of Animal Ecology, 75, 1365–2656.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Australian Government. (2005). Climate change risk and vulnerability: Promoting an efficient adaptation response in Australia (159pp). Canberra: Department of the Environment and Heritage, Australian Greenhouse Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bagne, K. E., Friggens, M. M., & Finch, D. M. (2011). A system for assessing vulnerability of species (SAVS) to climate change (Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-257, 28pp). Fort Collins: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bailey, R. G. (1995). Description of the ecoregions of the United States [1:7,500,000] (2nd ed., Misc. Pub. 1391). Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baron, J. S., Allen, C. D., Fleishman, E., et al. (2008). National parks. In S. H. Julius & J. M. West (Eds.), Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources: A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Climate Change Research (pp. 4-1–4-68). Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

    Google Scholar 

  • Barten, P. K., Jones, J. A., Achterman, G. L., et al. (2008). Hydrologic effects of a changing forest landscape (180pp). Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Birdsey, R., Pregitzer, K., & Lucier, A. (2006). Forest carbon management in the United States: 1600–2100. Journal of Environmental Quality, 35, 1461–1469.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Brown, T. J., Hall, B. L., & Westerling, A. L. (2004). The impact of twenty-first century climate change on wildland fire danger in the Western United States: An applications perspective. Climatic Change, 62, 365–388.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dale, V. H., Joyce, L. A., McNulty, S., et al. (2001). Climate change and forest disturbances. BioScience, 51, 723–734.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davison, J. E., Coe, S., Finch, D., et al. (2011). Bringing indices of species vulnerability to climate change into geographic space: An assessment across the Coronado National Forest. Biodiversity and Conservation. doi:10.1007/s10531-011-0175-0.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dessai, S., & Wilby, R. (2011). How can developing country decision makers incorporate uncertainty about climate risks into existing planning and policymaking processes? World Resources Report Uncertainty Series. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. http://www.worldresourcesreport.org/decision-making-in-depth/managing-uncertainty. 15 Sep 2012.

  • Enquist, C. A. F. (2002). Predicted regional impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution and diversity of tropical forest in Costa Rica. Journal of Biogeography, 29, 519–564.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fagre, D. B., Charles, C. W., Allen, C. D., et al. (2009). Thresholds of climate change in ecosystems: A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (70pp). Reston: U.S. Department of the Interior, Geological Survey.

    Google Scholar 

  • Halofsky, J. E., Peterson, D. L., O’Halloran, K. A., & Hawkins Hoffman, C. (2011). Adapting to climate change at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park (Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-844, 130pp). Portland: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hamon, W. R. (1961). Estimating potential evapotranspiration. Journal of the Hydraulic Division of the Proceedings of the American Society of Civil Engineering, 87, 107–120.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hardy, C. C. (2005). Wildland fire hazard and risk: Problems, definitions, and context. Forest Ecology and Management, 211, 73–82.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heath, L. S., Smith, J., Skog, K., et al. (2011). Managed forest carbon estimates for the U.S. greenhouse gas inventory, 1990–2008. Journal of Forestry, 109, 167–173.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hobson, K. A., & Schieck, J. (1999). Change in bird communities in boreal mixedwood forest: Harvest and wildfire effects over 30 years. Ecological Applications, 9, 849–863.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Howe, R. W., & Roberts, L. J. (2005). Sixteen years of habitat-based bird monitoring in the Nicolet National Forest. In C. J. Ralph & T. D. Rich (Eds.), Bird conservation implementation and integration in the Americas: Proceedings of the third international partners in flight conference (Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-191, pp. 963–973). Albany: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station.

    Google Scholar 

  • Iverson, L. R., Mathews, S. N., Prasad, A. M., et al. (2012). Development of risk matrices for evaluating climatic change responses of forested habitats. Climatic Change, 114, 231–243.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Iverson, L., Prasad, A. M., Matthews, S., & Peters, M. (2008). Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios. Forest Ecology and Management, 254, 390–406.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Iverson, L., Prasad, A. M., Matthews, S., & Peters, M. (2011). Lessons learned while integrating habitat, dispersal, disturbance, and life-history traits into species habitat models under climate change. Ecosystems, 14, 1005–1020.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jackson, R. B., Jobbagy, E. G., & Nosetto, M. D. (2009). Ecohydrology in a human dominated landscape. Ecohydrology, 2, 383–389.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johnson, M. C., Kennedy, M. C., & Peterson, D. L. (2011). Simulating fuel treatment effects in dry forests of the Western United States: Testing the principles of a fire-safe forest. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 41, 1018–1030.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joyce, L. A., Blate, G. M., Littell, J. S., et al. (2008). National forests. In S. H. Julius & J. M. West (Eds.), Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources: A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Climate Change Research (pp. 3-1–3-127). Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

    Google Scholar 

  • Karl, T. R., Melillo, J. M., Peterson, T. C., & Hassol, S. J. (Eds.) (2009). Global climate change impacts in the United States. A report of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (192pp). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kurz, W. A., Stinson, G., Rampley, G. J. D., et al. (2008). Risk of natural disturbances makes future contribution of Canada’s forests to the global carbon cycle highly uncertain. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 105, 1551–1555.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Lenihan, J. M., Drapek, R., Bachelet, D., & Neilson, R. P. (2003). Climate change effects on vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire in California. Ecological Applications, 13, 1667–1681.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Littell, J. S., & Gwozdz, R. B. (2011). Chapter 5: Climatic water balance and regional fire years in the Pacific Northwest, USA: Linking regional climate and fire at landscape scales. In D. McKenzie, C. Miller, & D. A. Falk (Eds.), The landscape ecology of fire (pp. 117–139). New York: Springer.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Littell, J. S. (n.d.). Relationships between area burned and climate in the western United States: Vegetation-specific historical and future fire. Manuscript in preparation. Anchorage: U.S. Geological Survey, Climate Science Center.

    Google Scholar 

  • Littell, J. S., McKenzie, D., Peterson, D. L., & Westerling, A. L. (2009). Climate and wildfire area burned in western U.S. ecoprovinces, 1916–2003. Ecological Applications, 19, 1003–1021.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matthews, S. N., Iverson, L. R., Prasad, A. M., et al. (2011a). Modifying climate change habitat models using tree species-specific assessments of model uncertainty and life history factors. Forest Ecology and Management, 262, 1460–1472.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matthews, S. N., Iverson, L. R., Prasad, A. P., & Peters, M. P. (2011b). Changes in potential habitat of 147 North American breeding bird species in response to redistribution of trees and climate following predicted climate change. Ecography. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0587.2010.06803.x.

    Google Scholar 

  • McDonald, R. I., Green, P., Balk, D., et al. (2011). Urban growth, climate change, and freshwater availability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 108, 6312–6317.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • McInerney, D., & Keller, K. (2008). Economically optimal risk reduction strategies in the face of uncertain climate thresholds. Climatic Change, 91, 29–41.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • McKenzie, D., Gedalof, Z., Peterson, D. L., & Mote, P. (2004). Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation. Conservation Biology, 18, 890–902.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller, J. D., Safford, H. D., Crimmins, M., & Thode, A. E. (2008). Quantitative evidence for increasing forest fire severity in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascade Mountains, California and Nevada, USA. Ecosystems, 12, 16–32.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Milly, P. C. D., Betancourt, J., Falkenmark, M., et al. (2008). Stationarity is dead: Whither water management? Science, 319, 573–574.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Pan, Y., Birdsey, R. A., Fang, J., et al. (2011). A large and persistent carbon sink in the world’s forests. Science, 333, 988–993.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Peterson, D. L., Halofsky, J., & Johnson, M. C. (2011a). Managing and adapting to changing fire regimes in a warmer climate. In D. McKenzie, C. Miller, & D. Falk (Eds.), The landscape ecology of fire (pp. 249–267). New York: Springer.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Peterson, D. L., Millar, C. I., Joyce, L. A., et al. (2011b). Responding to climate change on national forests: A guidebook for developing adaptation options (Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-855, 109pp). Portland: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station.

    Google Scholar 

  • Prasad, A., Iverson, L., Matthews, S., & Peters, M. (2009). Atlases of tree and bird species habitats for current and future climates. Ecological Restoration, 27, 260–263.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prasad, A., Iverson, L., Peters, M., et al. (2010). Modeling the invasive emerald ash borer risk of spread using a spatially explicit cellular model. Landscape Ecology, 25, 353–369.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Price, C., & Rind, D. (1994). Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies. Journal of Geophysical Research, 99, 10823–10831.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ranger, N., & Garbett-Shiels, S.-L. (2011). How can decision-makers in developing countries incorporate uncertainty about future climate risks into existing planning and policy-making processes? World Resources Report Uncertainty Series. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. http://www.worldresourcesreport.org/decision-making-in-depth/managing-uncertainty. 15 Sep 2012.

  • Reeve, N., & Toumi, R. (1999). Lightning activity as an indicator of climate change. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 125, 893–903.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reich, P. B. (2011). Taking stock of forest carbon. Nature Climate Change, 1, 346–347.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Rodenhouse, N. L. (1992). Potential effects of climatic change on migrant landbirds. Conservation Biology, 6, 263–272.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodewald, A. D., & Shustack, D. P. (2008). Consumer resource matching in urbanizing landscapes: Are synanthropic species over-matching? Ecology, 89, 515–521.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rogers, B. M., Neilson, R. P., Drapek, R., Lenihan, J. M., et al. (2011). Impacts of climate change on fire regimes and carbon stocks of the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, G03037. doi:10.1029/2011JG001695.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ryan, M. G., & Archer, S. R. (2008). Land resources: Forests and arid lands. In P. Backlund, A. Janetos, J. Hatfield, et al. (Eds.), The effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (pp. 75–120). Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

    Google Scholar 

  • Solomon, S., Quin, D., Manning, M., et al. (Eds.) (2007). Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (996pp). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Turetsky, M. R., Kane, E. S., Harden, J. W., et al. (2010). Recent acceleration of biomass burning and carbon losses in Alaskan forests and peatlands. Nature Geoscience, 4, 27–31.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service [USDA FS]. (2011). Climate change atlas—Northern Research Station. http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas

  • U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service [USDA FS]. (2012). Future of America’s forest and rangelands: Forest Service 2010 Resources Planning Act assessment (Gen. Tech. Rep. WO-87, 198pp). Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service.

    Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [USEPA]. (2011a). Land use, land-use change, and forestry. Annex 3.12. Methodology for estimating net carbon stock changes in forest land remaining forest lands. In: Inventory of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and sinks: 1990–2009. Publication #430-R-11-005. Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

    Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [USEPA]. (2011b). Methodological descriptions for additional source or sink categories. Annex 3, section 3.12. In: Inventory of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and sinks: 1990–2009 (pp. A254–A284). Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vörösmarty, C. J., McIntyre, P. B., Gessner, M. O., et al. (2010). Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature, 467, 555–561.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woodall, C. W., Domke, G. M., Riley, K. L., et al. (n.d.). Developing a framework for assessing climate change risks to U.S. forest carbon stocks across large temporal and spatial scales. Unpublished manuscript. St. Paul: U.S. Forest Service, Northern Research Station.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodall, C. W., Skog, K., Smith, J. E., & Perry, C. H. (2011). Maintenance of forest contribution to global carbon cycles. In: G. Robertson, P. Gaulke, R. McWilliams (Eds.), National report on sustainable forests–2010. FS-979. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service: II59–II65. Criterion 5.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yohe, G. (2010). Risk assessment and risk management for infrastructure planning and investment. The Bridge, 40(3), 14–21.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yohe, G., & Leichenko, R. (2010). Adopting a risk-based approach. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1196, 29–40.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA

    Dennis S. Ojima

  2. Northern Research Station, U.S. Forest Service, Delaware, OH, USA

    Louis R. Iverson, Stephen N. Matthews, Anantha M. Prasad & Matthew P. Peters

  3. Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA

    Brent L. Sohngen

  4. Southern Research Station, U.S. Forest Service, Raleigh, NC, USA

    James M. Vose

  5. Northern Research Station, U.S. Forest Service, St. Paul, MN, USA

    Christopher W. Woodall & Grant M. Domke

  6. Pacific Northwest Research Station, U.S. Forest Service, Seattle, WA, USA

    David L. Peterson

  7. Alaska Climate Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Anchorage, AK, USA

    Jeremy S. Littell

  8. Economics Department, Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT, USA

    Gary W. Yohe

  9. Rocky Mountain Research Station, U.S. Forest Service, Albuquerque, NM, USA

    Megan M. Friggens

Authors
  1. Dennis S. Ojima
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Louis R. Iverson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Brent L. Sohngen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. James M. Vose
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Christopher W. Woodall
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Grant M. Domke
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. David L. Peterson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Jeremy S. Littell
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. Stephen N. Matthews
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  10. Anantha M. Prasad
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  11. Matthew P. Peters
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  12. Gary W. Yohe
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  13. Megan M. Friggens
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to David L. Peterson , Dennis S. Ojima , James M. Vose , Christopher W. Woodall , David L. Peterson , Louis R. Iverson or Megan M. Friggens .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Pacific Northwest Research Station, U. S. Forest Service, Seattle, Washington, USA

    David L. Peterson

  2. Southern Research Station, U. S. Forest Service, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA

    James M. Vose

  3. Research and Development, U. S. Forest Service, Arlington, Virginia, USA

    Toral Patel-Weynand

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht (outside the USA)

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Ojima, D.S. et al. (2014). Risk Assessment. In: Peterson, D., Vose, J., Patel-Weynand, T. (eds) Climate Change and United States Forests. Advances in Global Change Research, vol 57. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7515-2_9

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation