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Dhaka Megacity pp 345–365Cite as

Modelling Spatiotemporal Patterns of Typhoid Cases Between 2005 and 2009 Using Spatial Statistics

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Abstract

The objectives of this study were to analyse spatiotemporal patterns of reported typhoid cases between 2005 and 2009 and to model the spatial relationship of demographic and socioeconomic factors associated with the occurrence of typhoid in Dhaka. The lowest level census units were used as the scale of analysis. Data in relation to typhoid was collected from 11 major hospitals by scanning individual medical reports, while demographic and socioeconomic variables were encoded in GIS from the population censuses of 2001 and 2011. Global (Moran’s I) and local models (G i *) were used to test how census districts were dispersed or clustered over space. The spatial relationships were modelled through ordinary least square (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) techniques. Spatial pattern analysis as measured by Moran’s I demonstrated that the distribution of the affected communities with typhoid was spatially autocorrelated across the study period, 2005–2009. Hotspot analysis using local G i * indicated large variation in the locations and sizes of clusters. The demographic model outperformed the socioeconomic and demographic + socioeconomic models in predicting the occurrence of typhoid in the study area. The results of this study are of great aid to identify spatial risk factors, essential to develop the control and prevention measures to specific areas.

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Acknowledgement

We acknowledge the support of the International Foundation for Science (IFS), Sweden, for funding this work under a project (Reference: W4656-1) on which Ashraf M. Dewan was the Principal Investigator.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Spatial Sciences, Curtin University, Kent Street, Bentley, Perth, 6102, WA, Australia

    Ashraf M. Dewan & Robert J. Corner

  2. Institute of Tropical Medicine (NEKKEN), Nagasaki University, 1-12-4, Sakamoto, Nagasaki, 852-8523, Japan

    Masahiro Hashizume

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  1. Ashraf M. Dewan
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  2. Robert J. Corner
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Correspondence to Ashraf M. Dewan .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Spatial Sciences, Curtin University, Bentley, Australia

    Ashraf Dewan

  2. Spatial Sciences, Curtin University, Bentley, Australia

    Robert Corner

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Dewan, A.M., Corner, R.J., Hashizume, M. (2014). Modelling Spatiotemporal Patterns of Typhoid Cases Between 2005 and 2009 Using Spatial Statistics. In: Dewan, A., Corner, R. (eds) Dhaka Megacity. Springer Geography. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6735-5_19

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