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Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean pp 307–332Cite as

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality

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Part of the book series: Advances in Global Change Research ((AGLO,volume 50))

Abstract

In this chapter we present the result of two model exercises aiming at simulating the impact of climate change onto two classes of surface aquifers: lakes and rivers. Section 10.1 focuses on the impact of global warming on the thermal structure of two Italian South alpine lakes: Lake Como and Pusiano. Long term hydrodynamic simulations (1953–2050) were performed using the hydrodynamic model DYRESM (Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model). DYRESM simulations were forced with downscaled regional climate scenarios undertaken within CIRCE. Our model simulations projected a yearly average temperature increase of 0.04°C year−1 for the period 1970–2000 and 0.03°C year−1 for the period 2001–2050 (A1b IPCC scenario). These results are in line with those detected in long term research studies carried out world-wide. This temperature increase is first responsible for a general increase of the water column stability and for a reduction of the mass transfer between deep and surface waters with direct implications on the oxygen and nutrient cycles. The magnitude of the temperature increase is also sufficient to impact on the growth of phytoplankton populations and it is likely one of the concurrent causes promoting the massive cyanobacteria blooms, recently detected in the two Italian case studies and in different lake environments in Europe. Section 10.2 approaches the problem of establishing a methodology to estimate the average yearly nutrient (phosphorus and nitrogen) river loads under present climate conditions and under the forcing of climate change. The case study is the Po River the largest hydrological basin in Italy and the third tributary of the Mediterranean semi-enclosed basin. The methodology developed in this study is based on a hierarchy of different numerical models which allowed to feed the MONERIS model (MOdeling Nutrient Emissions into River System) with the necessary meteorological and hydrological forcing. MONERIS was previously calibrated (1990–1995) and validated (1996–2000) under past conditions and then run under current conditions to define a control experiment (CE). Current nutrient loads have been estimated in 170,000 and 8,000 t year−1 respectively for nitrogen and phosphorus. Approximately 70% of the nitrogen load is from diffuse sources while 65% of the phosphorus load originates from point sources. Nutrient loads projections at 2100 (under different IPCC scenarios) allowed to estimate that both nitrogen and phosphorus loads are strictly dependent on the resident population which is responsible of a 61 and 41% increase respectively for nitrogen and phosphorus. Projected nutrient load variations were found to be negligible when holding the resident population constant. Finally the phosphorus load is markedly influenced by the efficiency of the waste water treatment plants (WWTPs).

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Acknowledgment

The authors wish to thank the EPSONmeteo Centre (http://www.meteo.it/) for the computational support and the Centre for Water Research (http://www.cwr.uwa.edu.au/) for kindly supplying the in-lake hydrodynamic model DYRESM

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Research Institute, National Research Council of Italy (CNR-IRSA), Unit of Brugherio, Brugherio, MB, Italy

    Diego Copetti & Gianni Tartari

  2. Dipartimento di processi chimici dell’Ingegneria, Università di Padova, Padova, Italy

    Luca Carniato & Luca Palmeri

  3. Department of Water Resources, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands

    Luca Carniato

  4. Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale, OGS, Sgonico, TS, Italy

    Alessandro Crise

  5. Water Research Institute, National Research Council of Italy (CNR-IRSA), Rome, Italy

    Nicolas Guyennon

  6. Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, ENEA, Rome, Italy

    Giovanna Pisacane & Maria Vittoria Struglia

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  1. Diego Copetti
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  2. Luca Carniato
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  3. Alessandro Crise
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  4. Nicolas Guyennon
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  5. Luca Palmeri
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  6. Giovanna Pisacane
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  7. Maria Vittoria Struglia
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  8. Gianni Tartari
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Diego Copetti .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Climate Change (CMCC), Euro-Mediterranean Center on, via Augusto Imperatore 16, Lecce, 73100, Italy

    Antonio Navarra

  2. IDDRI SciencesPo, rue du Four 41, Paris, 75006, France

    Laurence Tubiana

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Copetti, D. et al. (2013). Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality. In: Navarra, A., Tubiana, L. (eds) Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean. Advances in Global Change Research, vol 50. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5781-3_10

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