National Trends

Abstract

Chapter 3 (National Trends) focuses on age structure changes and related trends in labour force entries and the relative sizes of younger and older generations. The chapter first presents an analysis of the main patterns of age structure evolution from 1950 to 2025 in 139 countries with populations of a million or more, as well as in 33 United Nations regions and sub regions. Three main types of age structure evolution are apparent, namely changes associated with: (i) the old demography and the demographic transition; (ii) the new demography and the second demographic transition; and (iii) discontinuities in age structure development, such as baby booms and national calamities. These patterns immediately underlie the transformations that aging societies are experiencing. They reveal the processes at work in different countries, enable comparisons of trends through time, and permit generalizations about the past and future of population aging. Later sections examine consequences of age structure transformation evident in labour force changes and generational shifts affecting the ability of societies to maintain their populations.

In the past 25 years, the number of people of pensionable age (65 and over) in OECD countries rose by 45 million, but the population of working age rose by 120 million. As a result, population ageing has so far posed no major economic or social problems for our societies. This will change dramatically in the next 25 years when the number of persons of pensionable age will rise by a further 70 million, while the working-age population will rise by only five million. (OECD 1998: 1)