Aging in Asia

Abstract

Much of the numerical growth of the world’s aged population is occurring in developing countries, with Asia having the greatest share because of the presence of its demographic giants – China and India. Chapter 14 (Aging in Asia) begins with the debate about whether population aging is a significant concern for developing countries. It then reviews population trends and projections in Asia, showing that much of the region’s population growth for decades ahead is inevitable on account of the aging of the ‘population explosion’ generation, born in the 1950s and 1960s. Population models illustrate the long-run implications of demographic rates for population growth in Asia, showing the extent to which containment of the size of the aged population will depend on minimizing the duration of above replacement fertility. The chapter also discusses potentially advantageous features in national age structures which may produce a ‘demographic dividend’ of economic growth. Finally, with reference to the literature on modernization and the elderly, the chapter considers prerequisites for a further beneficial trend, namely an improvement in the status of older people. The chapter’s examination of key trends and issues provides the setting for Chap. 15, which focuses on policy responses to aging in Asia.

… the increase in the number of older persons will be greatest in developing countries. This is the most important observation. Over the next 50 years, the older population [aged 60 and over] of the developing world is expected to multiply by four. This is an extraordinary development that bears implications for every community, institution and individual – young and old. Ageing is definitely no longer just a “first world issue”. What was a footnote in the twentieth century is on its way to becoming a dominant theme in the twenty-first century. (Kofi Annan, in United Nations 2002: 66)