Understanding Potential Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options in Indian Megacities

Abstract

This study examines the impacts of strong rain events on local stakeholders in New Delhi, India, with the aim of developing effective adaptation and impact abatement options. Impacts are presented for various social groups – i.e., street food vendors and service providers, students, planners, other professionals and researchers – and analysed with respect to transportation, energy, water, health, food security and other issue areas. Under progressive climate change, strong rain events are projected to increase. Without adaptation, then, impacts will also increase. We use a fuzzy cognitive mapping approach and let stakeholders draw cause-effect networks. By ‘cutting’ certain cause-effect relations, its after-effects can be reduced and any such measure can be regarded as an adaptation option. Analysis reveals that local service providers and street food vendors are substantially worried about the economic losses connected with strong rain events, while other social groups care more about traffic jams and impacts on health. Scenario runs have shown that a climate change adaptation strategy that involves a reduction of local flooding would substantially reduce a multitude of impacts for all.