Abstract
This article provides a brief introduction to the history of oceanography with a focus on elements that laid the scientific foundation of ocean forecasting, i.e. ocean observations, ocean general circulation models and data assimilation tools. It then describes the scientific achievements of the first phase of internationally coordinated efforts in the development of global and basin-scale operational ocean forecasting systems during the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (1997–2008). This is followed by a description of the challenges in ocean forecasting in the twenty-first century and a summary and conclusion.
This article represents an introduction to the modelling, data assimilation and observing system topics discussed in more detail in the subsequent chapters of this book.
Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research—A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
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- 1.
Following the GODAE Strategic Plan (2000), “operational” is used here “whenever the processing is done in a routine and regular way, with a pre-determined systematic approach and constant monitoring of performance. With this terminology, regular re-analyses may be considered as operational systems, as may be organized analyses and assessment of climate data”.
- 2.
CLIVAR = World Climate Research Program (WCRP) project that addresses Climate Variability and Predictability. IMBER = Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research; GEOTRACES = International study of the global marine biogeochemical cycles of trace elements and their isotopes; SOLAS = Surface Ocean Lower Atmosphere Study.
- 3.
WMO = World Meteorological Organisation; IOC = Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission; JCOMM = Joint Committee for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology; GOOS = Global Ocean Observing System; GCOS = Global Climate Observing System; GEOSS = Global Earth Observation System of Systems; CEOS = Committee on Earth Observation Satellites; WCRP = World Climate Research Program; IGBP = International Geosphere-Biosphere Program.
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Acknowledgements
This paper was written with inputs from the former members of the GODAE International Science Team, and, more recently, the members of the GODAE OceanView Science Team and their Patrons groups. The author would like to particularly thank Pierres-Yves Le Traon, Mike Bell, Eric Dombrowsky, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, Pierre Brasseur, Pierre De Mey, Roger Proctor, Jacques Verron, Peter Oke and John Parslow for their contributions through many discussions on issues of relevance to this paper.
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Schiller, A. (2011). Ocean Forecasting in the 21st Century. In: Schiller, A., Brassington, G. (eds) Operational Oceanography in the 21st Century. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0332-2_1
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