Abstract
This chapter reviews the evolution of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and provides estimates of past trends and future projections of AIDS mortality indicators, including numbers of AIDS deaths, the proportion of all deaths that are due to AIDS, and life expectancy. In 2007, a total of 2.0 million men, women, and children died of AIDS worldwide. The death toll will remain high in the future because 33 million individuals are currently infected and about 2.7 million new HIV infections occur each year. A cumulative total of 24 million people have died from AIDS between 1980 and 2007, and by 2030 this total is projected to reach 75 million. Despite the rapid spread of this new disease during the 1980s and 1990s, the epidemic has reached a major turning point in recent years as the rate of new infections peaked and began a decline. Worldwide, the proportion of all deaths caused by AIDS reached 3.9% in 2004. This proportion varies widely from a high of 15% in Sub-Saharan Africa to around 1% in Asia and other regions. In the future, the number of AIDS deaths and the proportion of deaths due to AIDS are projected to remain approximately at their current plateaus.
The views and opinions expressed in this chapter are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations.
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- 1.
HIV is the Human Immunodeficiency Virus responsible for the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), which left untreated results in premature death.
- 2.
For some countries and for specific periods, estimates extracted from Spectrum files were also used. For consistency purposes, slight prorating adjustments were also made when deemed necessary.
- 3.
Assuming the presence of proper screening of blood supply and organ donors from high-risk groups to prevent non-sexual transmission to the general population through medical procedures.
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Acknowledgment
The authors are grateful to Mr. Thomas Buettner, Assistant Director of the Population Division, for kindly updating the Population Division’s AIDS program and designing queries that enabled the production of special tabulations, which were used in this study; the authors would also like to thank all other staff members of the Population Division who worked on the 2008 Revision of World Population Prospects: Mr. Gerhard Heilig, Mr. Kirill Andreev, Mr. Taeke Gjaltema, Ms. Vladimira Kantorova, Mr. Pablo Lattes, and Mr. Nan Li. The authors also wish to thank Ms. Hania Zlotnik, Director of the Population Division, for her insightful comments.
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Bongaarts, J.P., Pelletier, F., Gerland, P. (2011). Global Trends in AIDS Mortality. In: Rogers, R., Crimmins, E. (eds) International Handbook of Adult Mortality. International Handbooks of Population, vol 2. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9996-9_8
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