Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

International Handbook of Adult Mortality pp 207–226Cite as

Age Patterns in Adult Mortality

  • Chapter
  • First Online:

Part of the book series: International Handbooks of Population ((IHOP,volume 2))

Abstract

This chapter gives us the opportunity to revisit some of the work of the founding fathers of demographic science. While modern life tables usually begin with probabilities of death, n q x , the first life tables made in London during the seventeenth century began with counts from the Bills of Mortality. The first life tables were based on a very small amount of data, leading Edmund Halley (1656–1742) to conclude that the relationship between age and mortality described by his predecessors (Halley 1693) “has been only done by imaginary Valuation”.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   299.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   379.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   379.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    We know the table of Buffon mainly through the version of William Smellie (1740–1795), who placed it in the central part of his Philosophy of Natural History (1790) Charles Elliot, Edinburgh, 1790. First Edition.

  2. 2.

    The exact contribution of Leibniz in the Breslaw’s data collection is still unknown (Le Bras 2003; Reed 1942).

  3. 3.

    We kept track of the data assembled by Johannes Hudde thanks to Christian Huygens to whom Hudde sent his data in August 1671 and that Huygens used under the name of Tableau de mortalité dressé par J. Hudde. Johan De Witt and Johannes Hudde are possibly the first ones to understand that mortality increases with age.

  4. 4.

    His translation of Treatise of Moivre in collaboration with Roberto Gaeta is accompanied by an almost complete bibliography of previous work on mortality.

  5. 5.

    « Ne nous flattons pas de ces beaux mots: on doit à l’aventure appeler plus tôt naturel, ce qui est général, commun, et universel. Mourir de vieillesse, c’est une mort rare, singulière et extraordinaire, et d’autant moins naturelle que les autres: c’est la dernière et extrême sorte de mourir: plus elle est éloignée de nous, d’autant est elle moins espérable: c’est bien la borne, au delà de laquelle nous n’irons pas, et que la loy de nature a prescrit, pour n’être point outrepassée: mais c’est un sien rare privilège de nous faire durer jusques là » Montaigne (1595).

  6. 6.

    « J’ai dit, page 56 [Essai 1 de 1746], que j’entends par vie moyenne ou commune, le nombre d’années qu’ont encore à vivre, les uns portant les autres, un nombre de personnes d’un même âge, & non le temps au bout duquel il sera mort la moitié des personnes auxquelles appartient la vie moyenne, comme l’ont cru quelques personnes. » Deparcieux (1746).

  7. 7.

    Halley wrote in 1693 “From this Table it is evident, that from the Age of 9 to about 25 there does not die above 6 per Annum of each Age, which is much about one per Cent… From 25 to 50 there seem to die from 7 to 8 and 9 per Annum of each age; and after that to 70, they growing more crasie, though the number be much diminished, yet the Mortality encreases, and there are found to die 10 or 11 of each Age per Annum: From thence the number of the Living being grown very small, they gradually decline till there be none left to die; as may be seen at one View in the Table.”

  8. 8.

    The same type of arguments had been used by Christiaan Huygens in the epistolary discussion he had with his brother about the concepts of average life and probable life.

  9. 9.

    Except for the United States of America, where the last year available when this chapter was written was 2006.

  10. 10.

    Condorcet was arrested March 27, 1794, and found dead in his cell the next day.

References

  • Aristotle. 350 B.C.E. The History of Animal: Traduced by D‘Arcy Wentworth Thompson. Available online at http://classics.mit.edu/Aristotle/history_anim.html

  • Bacon, F. 1670. Sylva Sylvarum, or, Natural History in Ten Centuries. Whereunto is Newly Added, the History Natural and Experimental of Life and Death, or of the Prolongation of Life. Published after the Authors Death by William Rawley, Doctor in Divinity, One of his Majesties Chaplains, 9th ed. London, Printed by J.R. for William Lee.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bertillon, J. 1878. “[Discussion of Lexis’paper: Sur la Durée Normale de la Vie Humaine et sur la Théorie de la Stabilité des Rapports Statistiques].” Annales de Démographie Internationale 2(6–7):460–61.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bongaarts, J. 2005. “Long-Range Trends in Adult Mortality: Models and Projection Methods.” Demography 42(1):23–49.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Browne, T. 1646. Pseudodoxia Epidemica or, Enquiries into Very many Received Tenets, and commonly Presumed Truths, 3rd ed., 1658. London, Nath. Ekins. Available online at http://books.google.fr/books?id=kSjH4tiEhGUC&dq=Pseudodoxia+Epidemica+or,+Enquiries+into+Very+many+Received+Tenets,+and+commonly+Presumed+Truths&printsec=frontcover&source=bn&hl=fr&ei=W5FyS53qLIi14Qbjy4nYCQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=4&ved=0CBYQ6AEwAw#v=twopage&q=&f=false

  • Buffon, G.-L.L. (1749). “De la Vieillesse et de la Mort.” In Histoire naturelle, Vol. 2, pp. 557–89. Paris, Imprimerie Royale.

    Google Scholar 

  • Buffon, G.-L.L. (1776). “Des Mulets. Histoire Naturelle.” In Histoire naturelle, Vol. 3(Supplément), pp. 1–38. Paris, Imprimerie Royale.

    Google Scholar 

  • Canudas-Romo, V. 2008. “The Modal Age at Death and the Shifting Mortality Hypothesis.” Demographic Research 19(3):1179–1204. Available online at http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol19/30/19-30.pdf

  • Cheung, S.L.K. and J.-M. Robine. 2007. “Increase in Common Longevity and the Compression of Mortality: The Case of Japan.” Population Studies 61(1):85–97.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cheung, S.L.K., J.-M. Robine, and G. Caselli 2008. “The Use of Cohort and Period Data to Analyze Change in Normal Longevity in Low Mortality Countries.” Genus LXIV(1–2):101–29.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cheung, S.L.K., J.-M. Robine, F. Paccaud, and A. Marazzi. 2009. “Dissecting the Compression of Mortality in Switzerland, 1876–2005.” Demographic Research. 21(19):569–98. Available online at http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol21/19/21-19.pdf

  • Cheung, S.L.K., J.-M. Robine, J.C.E. Tu, and G. Caselli. 2005. “Three Dimensions of the Survival Curve: Horizontalization, Verticalization, and Longevity Extension.” Demography 42(2):243–58.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Condorcet, M.J.A.N. de Caritat. ([1795] 2004). “Dixième Epoque.” In J.-P. Schandeler and P. Crépel (eds.), Tableau Historique des Progrès de l’Esprit Humain: Projets, Esquisse, Fragments et Notes (1772–1794), pp. 429–59. Paris, Institut National d’Etudes Démographiques.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cutler, R.G. 1985.“Biology of Aging and Longevity.” Gerontologica Biomedica Acta 1:35–61.

    Google Scholar 

  • de Moivre, A. 1756. “The Doctrine of Chances: Or, a Method of Calculating the Probabilities of Event in Play.” The 3rd ed., Fuller, Clearer, and More Correct than the Former. London: Printed for A. Millar, in the Strand. MDCCLVI – It includes: A Treatise of Annuities on Lives. Preface to the 2nd ed.

    Google Scholar 

  • Deparcieux, A. 1746. Essai sur les Probabilités de la Durée de la Vie Humaine (1746) Addition à l’essai (1760) 2003. Paris, Institut National d’Etudes Démographiques.

    Google Scholar 

  • Derham, W. 1726. Théologie Physique ou Démonstration de l’Existence et des Attributs de Dieu, tirées des Oeuvres de la Création. Accompagnée d’un grand nombre de Remarques et d’Observations Curieuses. Traduite de l’Anglois. Rotterdam, Jean-Daniel Beman. Trad. J. Lufneu [Physico-Theology or, a Demonstration of the Being and Attributes of God, from His Works of Creation].

    Google Scholar 

  • Dublin, L.I. 1923. “The Possibility of Extending Human Life.” Metron 3(2):175–97.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fries, J.F. 1980.“Aging, Natural Death, and the Compression of Morbidity.” New England Journal of Medicine 303:130–35.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gaeta, R. and G. Fontana (1776). “Discours Préliminaire en Préface de la Traduction Italienne de La Dottrina degli Azzardi applicata ai Problemi della Probabilità della Vita, delle Pensioni Vitalizie, Reversioni, Tontine, ec. d’Abraham de Moivre.” In dir. T. Martin, Arithmétique politique dans le France du XVIII siècle 200. Paris, Institut National d’Etudes Démographiques.

    Google Scholar 

  • Graunt, J. 1662. Natural and Political Observations Mentioned in a Following Index and Made upon the Bills of Mortality. London, T. Raycroft.

    Google Scholar 

  • Greenwood, M. and J.O. Irwin. 1939.“The Biostatistics of Senility.” Human Biology 11:1–23.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gurven, M. and H. Kaplan. 2007. “Longevity among Hunter-Gatherers: A Cross-cultural Examination.” Population and Development Review 33(2):321–65.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Halley, E. 1693. “An Estimate of the Degrees of Mortality of Mankind, Drawn from Curious Tables of the Births and Funerals at the City of Breslaw.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London XVII(196):576–610.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hayflick, L. 1996. How and Why We Age? New York, Ballantine Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hudde, J. 1671. “Letter to Christiaan Huigens” In la Société Hollandaise des Sciences (ed.), OEuvres complètes de Christiaan Huygens, Vol. 7 [Correspondance, 1670–1675, letter # 1839, August 18, 1671], pp. 95–98. La Haye: M. Nijhoff. Available online at http://mathdoc.emath.fr/cgi-bin/linum?aun=001649.

  • Human Mortality Database. 2010. Available-online at http://www.mortality.org/. Accessed on February 14, 2010.

  • Huygens, C. 1669. “Letter to Ludewijk Huigens” In la Société Hollandaise des Sciences (ed.), OEuvres complètes de Christiaan Huygens, Vol. 6 [Correspondance, 1666–1669, letter # 1776, November 21, 1669], pp. 524–32. La Haye: M. Nijhof. Available online at http://mathdoc.emath.fr/cgi-bin/linum?aun=001649

  • Jeune, B. 1995. “In Search of the First Centenarians.” In B. Jeune and J.W. Vaupel(eds.), Exceptional Longevity: From Prehistory to the Present, pp. 11–24. Odense, University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kannisto, V. 2001. “Mode and Dispersion of the Length of Life.” Population 13(1):159–71.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kersseboom, W. 1742. “Deuxième Traité. Vérification de l’Essai.” In Essais d’Arithmétique Politique 1970, pp. 41–96. Paris, Institut National d’Etudes Démographiqes.

    Google Scholar 

  • Laslett, P. 1973. The Earliest Classics. John Graunt, Natural and Political Observations made upon the Bills of Mortality (1662). Gregory King, Natural and Political Observations and Conclusions upon the State and Condition of England (1696). London, Gregg International.

    Google Scholar 

  • Laslett, P. (1999) “The Bewildering History of the History of Longevity.” In B. Jeune and J.W. Vaupel (eds.), Validation of Exceptional Longevity, pp. 23–40. Odense, University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Le Bras, H. 2000. Naissance de la Mortalité. Paris, Gallimard/Le Seuil.

    Google Scholar 

  • Le Bras, H. 2003.“Les Politiques de l’Age.” L’Homme 167–168:25–48.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leibniz, G.W. (1680) “Essay de quelques Raisonnement Nouveaux sur la Vie Humaine et sur le Nombre des Hommes.” In J.M. Rohrbasser and J. Véron (eds.), Leibniz et les Raisonnements sur la Vie Humaine 2001, pp. 105–23. Paris, Institut National d’Etudes Démographiques.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lexis, W. 1878. “Sur la Durée Normale de la Vie Humaine et sur la Théorie de la Stabilité des Rapports Statistiques.” Annales de Démographie Internationale 2(5):447–60.

    Google Scholar 

  • Maier, H., J. Gampe, B. Jeune, J.-M. Robine, and J.W. Vaupel (eds.). 2010. Supercentenarians. Berlin Heidelberg, Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Malthus, T.R. 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population. Oxford World’s Classics reprint.

    Google Scholar 

  • Maynwaring, E.. 1670. Vita sana et longa, the preservation of health and prolongation of life. See Haycock, D.B. (2006) “A Thing Ridiculous”? Chemical Medicine and the Prolongation of Human Life in Seventeenth-Century England. Working papers on the Nature of Evidence: How Well Do ‘Facts’ Travel? N°10/06 http://www.lse.ac.uk/collections/economicHistory/

  • Moheau, J.B. 1778. Recherches et Considérations sur la population de la France, 1994. Paris, Institut National d’Etudes Démographiques. Réédition annotée par E. Vilquin.

    Google Scholar 

  • Montaigne, M.de. 1595. “De l’Aage.” Livre 1, Chapitre LVII in Essais 1854. Paris, Firmin Didot Frères. Available-online at http://www.voltaire-integral.com/gallica/Montaigne.html

  • Morris, C. 1751. Observations of the Past Growth and Present State of the City of London. London, s.n.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ouellette, N. and R. Bourbeau. 2009. “Changes in Age-at-Death Distribution in Low-Mortality Countries: A Nonparametric Approach” 162(#110). In XXVI International Population Conference, Marrakech, Book of abstracts. Paris, IUSSP.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pearson, K. 1897. The Chances of Death, Vol. 2. London, Edward Arnold.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pearson, K. 1902. “On the Modal Value of an Organ or Character.” Biometrika 1(2):260–61.

    Google Scholar 

  • Population Reference Bureau. 2009. World Population Data Sheet (released on August 12). Available-online at http://www.prb.org

  • Quetelet, A. 1835. Sur l‘Homme et le Développement de ses Facultés, Essai d‘une Physique Sociale. London, Bossange & Co.

    Google Scholar 

  • Quetelet, A. 1871. Anthropométrie ou Mesure des différentes Facultés de l‘Homme. Brussels, Muquardt.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reed, L.J. 1942. Introduction to Degrees of Mortality of Mankind by Edmund Halley. Baltimore, MD, The Johns Hopkins Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Robine, J.-M. and G. Caselli 2005. “An Unprecedented Increase in the Number of Centenarians.” Genus LXI(1, Special issue: Increasing Longevity: Causes, Trends, and Prospects, Ed by S. Horiuchi and J.-M. Robine):57–82.

    Google Scholar 

  • Robine, J.-M., S.L.K. Cheung, S. Horiuchi, and A.R. Thatcher. 2008. “Is There a Limit to the Compression of Mortality?” In 2008 Living to 100 and Beyond Monograph. Orlando, USA, Society of Actuaries. Available-online at http://www.soa.org/library/monographs/retirement-systems/living-to-100-and-beyond/2008/january/mono-li08-03-cheung.pdf

  • Robine J.-M., H.C. Petersen, B. Jeune (2009a). “Buffon et la Longévité des Espèces.” In M.O. Bernez (ed.), L’héritage de Buffon, pp. 257–72. Dijon, Editions Universitaires.

    Google Scholar 

  • Robine, J.-M. and Y. Saito. 2009.“The Number of Centenarians in Europe.” European Papers on the New Welfare, the Counter-Ageing Society: Steps Towards the European Welfare 13:47–62.

    Google Scholar 

  • Robine, J.-M., Y. Saito, and C. Jagger 2003. “The Emergence of Extremely Old People: The Case of Japan.” Experimental Gerontology 38:735–39.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robine, J.-M., Y. Saito, and C. Jagger 2009. “The Relationship between Longevity and Healthy Life Expectancy.” Quality in Ageing 10(2):5–14.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rohrbasser, J.-M. and J. Véron 1998. “Leibniz et la Mortalité: Mesure des « Apparences » et Calcul de la Vie Moyenne.” Population 53(1–2):29–44.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rohrbasser, J.-M. and J. Véron 1999. “Les Frères Huygens et le « calcul des Aages »: l’Argument du Pari Equitable.” Population 54(6):993–1012.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Struyck, N. 1740. “Hypothèse sur l’Etat de l’Espèce Humaine [Inleideing tot de algemeene geografie, beneevens eenige sterrekundige en andere verhandelingen].” In Les Œuvres de Nicolas Struyck (1667–1769), 1912, Traduites du hollandais par J.A. Vollgraff., pp. 165–249. Amsterdam, s.n.

    Google Scholar 

  • Struyck, N. 1753. “Découvertes plus Détaillées concernant l’état du Genre Humain, basées sur des Expériences. [Vervolg van de beschrijving der staartsterren, en nadere ontdekkingen omtrent den staat van het menschelijk geslagt, uit ondervindingen opgemaakt, benevens eenige sterrekundige, aardrijkskundige en andere aanmerkingen.]” In Les Œuvres de Nicolas Struyck (1667–1769), 1912, Traduites du hollandais par J.A. Vollgraff., pp. 250–410. Amsterdam, sn.

    Google Scholar 

  • Süssmilch, J.P. 1741. L’ordre Divin 1998, Traduit et annoté par J.M. Rohrbasser JM. Paris, Institut National d’Etudes Démographiques.

    Google Scholar 

  • Süssmilch, J.P. 1765. L’ordre Divin 1979, 3ème ed. Translated by J. Hecht. Paris, Institut National d’Etudes Démographiques.

    Google Scholar 

  • Thatcher, A.R., S.L.K. Cheung, S. Horiuchi, and J.-M. Robine. 2010. “The Compression of Deaths above the Mode.” Demographic Research 22(Article 17):505–38. Available from: http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol22/17/

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thoms, W.J. 1873. Human Longevity. London, John Murray.

    Google Scholar 

  • Walford, R. 1985. Maximum Life Span. New York, WW Norton & Company.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, French Institute of Health and Medical Research, INSERM, Health & Demographie, Centre de Recherche en Cancérologie, Montpellier, France

    Jean-Marie Robine

Authors
  1. Jean-Marie Robine
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jean-Marie Robine .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Dept. Sociology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, 80309-0327, Colorado, USA

    Richard G. Rogers

  2. Davis School of Gerontology, Andrus Gerontology Center, University of Southern California, McClintock Ave. 3715, Los Angeles, 90089-0191, California, USA

    Eileen M. Crimmins

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Robine, JM. (2011). Age Patterns in Adult Mortality. In: Rogers, R., Crimmins, E. (eds) International Handbook of Adult Mortality. International Handbooks of Population, vol 2. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9996-9_10

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation