Designing Post-Kyoto Institutions: From the Reduction Rate to the Emissions Amount

Abstract

In February 2007, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) observed that the average global temperature had climbed 0.74°C in 10 years from 1996 to 2005; they basically concluded that global warming is escalating owing to various human activities. If countermeasures were not taken, the panel warned that the temperature could climb a maximum of 6.4°C by the end of this century compared to the end of the twentieth century. With this in mind, the discussion regarding the post-Kyoto Protocol, an international framework concerning the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) after 2013, has become animated. In January 2007, the European Union (EU) independently declared that it would reduce GHGs by at least 20% by 2020 (compared to the 1990 level). In May 2007, looking ahead to the June G8 summit in Germany, Prime Minister Abe and the Japanese government proposed the “Cool Earth 50” strategy.¹ Regarding the post-Kyoto framework, Prime Minister Abe proposed that all of the major emitting countries including the United States, China, and India aim to create a framework that will accomplish a 50% global reduction by 2050. The specifics of this plan, however, have not been realized, and what comes after the promised term of the Kyoto Protocol remains unclear.