Abstract
In the following short paper the possible cycles of the ship industry are studied through univariate autoregressive integrated moving average time series models. The adjusted model with data from the world’s fleets (1924–1994) presents an empirical contrast which seems to confirm the coexistence of long and short cycles in the maritime transport of 4 and 12.7 years, respectively. The result seems to confirm the well known Cobwed theorem in the case of short-run cycles and long-run stock cycles.
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- 1.
The roots of the characteristic polinomial associated to Model 1 are given by (I2 = −1): B1 = 1.11396. B2, B3 = −1.38592 ± 0.74749 I. B4, B5 = −0.08402 ± 1.31173 I.
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Coto-Millán, P., Sarabia-Alegría, J.M., Inglada-Pérez, L. (2010). Cycles in the Ship Building Industry: An Empirical Evidence. In: Coto-Millán, P., Pesquera, M., Castanedo, J. (eds) Essays on Port Economics. Contributions to Economics. Physica, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7908-2425-4_10
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7908-2425-4_10
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