Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Climate Development and History of the North Atlantic Realm pp 125–148Cite as

Tracing Climate-Variability: The Search for Climate Dynamics on Decadal to Millennial Time Scales

  • Chapter

Abstract

Prognoses regarding future climate scenarios hinge on the predictive skills of climate models. They must produce reliable estimates of the future mean climate state as well as future climate variability about the mean, resulting from the interference between natural climate variability and anthropogenic perturbations of the climate system. Natural climate variability originates from interactions between components of the climate systems and from perturbations external to the climate system. To validate model-generated climate variability against the whole range of natural variability, it is necessary to gather information on the temporal progression of Holocene climate variability. Distinct spatial climate regimes (climate-variability patterns) can be extracted from climate observations and facilitate the comparison between paleoclimate reconstructions and model results. Examples of instrumental observations and proxy data demonstrate the potential of such records to trace climate regimes through time. The dominant mode of today’s climate variability in Europe — the North Atlantic Oscillation — constitutes a climate regime, that can serve to provide an expectation in assessing Holocene climate variability. First attempts to reconstruct the history of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the last 300 years or so are summarized. Volcanic eruptions and solar variability constitute important external perturbations of the climate system that account for a significant portion of natural variability.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   169.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Anderson RY, Dean WE (1988) Lacustrine varve formation through time. Palaeogeogr, Palaeoclimatol, Palaeoecol 62:215 – 23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Appenzeller C, Stocker TF, Anklin M(1998) North Atlantic oscillation dynamics recorded in Greenland ice cores. Science 282:446–449

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bailey ME, Clube SVM, Napier WM (1990) The Origin of Comets. Pergamon Press, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Baillie MGL (1994) Dendrochronology raise questions about the nature of the AD 536 dust-veil event. Holocene 4:212–217

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baillie MGL (1998) Evidence for climatic deterioration in the 12th and 17th centuries BC. In: Hänsel B (ed) The Bronze Age: the first golden age of Europe. Oetker-Voges Verlag, Kiel, 49–56

    Google Scholar 

  • Baillie MGL (1999) A view from outside: Recognising the big picture. Quat Proc 7:625–635

    Google Scholar 

  • Barnett T, Preisendorfer R (1987) Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecasts skill for United States surface air temperature determined by canonical correlation analysis. Mon Wea Rev 115:1825–1850

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bhattacharya K, Ghil M, Vulis IL (1982) Internal variability of an energy-balance model with delayed albedo effects. J Atmos Sci 39:1747–1773

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bjerknes J (1964) Atlantic air-sea interaction. Adv Geophys 10:1–82

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Black DE, Peterson LC, Overpeck JT, Kaplan A, Evans MN, Kashgarian M (1999) Eight centuries of North Atlantic ocean atmosphere variability. Science 286:1709–1713

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brathauer U, Brauer A, Negendank JFW, Zolitschka B (2000) Rasche Klimaänderungen am Beginn der heutigen Warmzeit. Zweijahresbericht GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam 1998/1999, pp 29–33

    Google Scholar 

  • Briffa KR, Jones PD, Bartholin TS, Eckstein D, Schweingruber FH, Karlén W, Zetterberg P, Eronen M (1992) Fennoscandian summers from AD 500: temperature changes on short and long timescales. Clim Dyn 7:111–119

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Briffa KR, Jones PD, Schweingruber FH, Osborn TJ (1998) Influence of volcanic eruptions on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature over the past 6000 years. Nature 393:450–455

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cayan DR (1992) Latent and sensible heat flux anomalies over the northern oceans: the connection to monthly atmospheric circulation. J Climate 5:354–369

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, D’Arrigo RD, Briffa KR (1998) A reconstruction of the North Atlantic Oscillation using tree-ring chronologies from North America and Europe. The Holocene 8:9–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Covey C, Thompson SL, Weissman PR, MacCracken MC (1994) Global climatic effects of atmospheric dust from an asteroid or comet impact on Earth. Glob Planet Change 9:263–273

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crowley TJ, Kim KY (1999) Modeling the temperature response to forced climate change over the last six centuries. Geophys Res Lett 26:1901–1904

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cubasch U, Voss R, Hegerl GC, Waszkewitz J, Crowley TJ (1997) Simulation of the influence of solar radiation variations on the global climate with an oceanatmosphere general circulation model. Clim Dyn 13:757–767

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dansgaard W (1964) Stable isotopes in precipitation. Tellus 16:436–468

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Silva SL, Zielinski GA (1998) Global influence of the AD 1600 eruption of Huaynaputina. Peru. Nature 393:455–458

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischer G, Wefer G (eds) (1999) Use of proxies in paleoceanography. Springer Verlag, Berlin, pp 1–735

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Foster G (1996) Wavelets for period analysis of unevenly sampled time series. Astron J 112:1709–1729

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frankignoul C, Müller P, Zorita E (1997) A simple model of the decadal response of the ocean to stochastic wind forcing. J Phys Oceanogr 27:1533–1546

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Free M, Robock A (1999) Global warming in the context ofthe Little Ice Age. J Geophys Res D 104:19057–19070

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fritts HC (1976) Tree rings and climate. Academic Press, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghil M (1994) Cryothermodynamics: The chaotic dynamics of paleoclimate. Physica D 77:130–159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghil M, Yiou P (1996) Spectral methods: what they can and cannot do for climatic time series. In: Anderson DLT, Willebrand J (eds) Decadal climate variability — dynamics and predictability. Springer Verlag, Berlin, 445–482

    Google Scholar 

  • Groetzner A, Latif M, Barnett TP (1998) A decadal cycle in the North Atlantic as simulated by the ECHO coupled GCM. J Climate 11: 831–847

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haigh JD (1996) The impact of solar variability on climate. Science 272:981–984

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hartmann DL (1994) Global physical climatology. Academic Press, San Diego

    Google Scholar 

  • Hasselmann K (1976) Stochastic climate models: Part I. Theory. Tellus 28:473–485

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Horowitz LL (1974) The effects of spline interpolation on power spectral density. IEEE Trans Acoust, Speech, Signal Processing ASSP-22:22–27

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Houghton JT, Meira Filho Callander BA, Harris N, Kattenberg A, Maskell K (eds) (1996) Climate Change 1995 — The science of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Hurrell JW (1995) Decadal trends in the North Atlantic oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269:676–679

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hurrell JW (1996) Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on Northern Hemisphere temperature. Geophys Res Lett 23:665–668

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jönsson P, Fortuniak K (1995) Interdecadal variations of surface wind direction in Lund, Southern Sweden. Int J Clim 15:447–461

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones PD, Hulme M (1997) The changing temperature of ‘Central England’. In: Hulme M, Barrow E (eds) Climates of the British Isles, present, past and future. Routledge, London, 453

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones PD, Jónsson T, Wheeler D (1997) Extension to the North Atlantic Oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and south-west Iceland. Int J Clim 17:1433–1450

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jouzel J, Alley RB, Cuffey KM, Dansgaard W, Grootes P, Hoffmann Johnsen SJ, Koster RD, Peel D, Shuman CA, Stievenard M, Stuiver M, White J(1997) Validity of the temperature reconstruction from water isotopes in ice cores. J Geophys Res C102:26471–26487

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keigwin LD, Pickart RS (1999) Slope water current over the Laurentian fan on interannual to millennial time scales. Science 286:520–523

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koslowski Glaser R(1999) Variations in reconstructed ice winter severity in the Western Baltic from 1501 to 1995, and their implications for the North Atlantic Oscillation. Climatic Change 41:175–191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kushnir Y (1994) Interdecadal variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature and associated atmospheric conditions. J Climate 7:142–157

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Latif M, Barnett TP (1994) Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America. Science 266:634–637

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau K-M, Weng H (1995) Climate signal detection using wavelet transform: how to make a time series sing. Bull Amer Met Soc 76:2391–2402

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Legrand JP, Le Goff M (1992) Direction de la Météorologie Nationale, Monographie Nr. 6: Les observations météorologiques de Louis Morin entre 1670 et 1713’. Météo-France, Trappes

    Google Scholar 

  • Le Treut H, Ghil M (1983) Orbital forcing, climatic interactions, and glaciation cycles. J Geophys Res C88:5167–5190

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lindzen RS (1995) Constraining possibilities versus signal detection. In: National Research Council (ed) Natural climate variability on decade-to-centennial time scales. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 182–186

    Google Scholar 

  • Lorenz EN (1963) Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J Atmos Sci 20:130–141

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loutre MF, Berger A, Bretagnon P, Blanc P-L (1992) Astronomical frequencies for climate research at the decadal to century time scale. Clim Dyn 7:181–194

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luterbacher J, Schmutz C, Gyalistras D, Xoplaki E, Wanner E (1999) Reconstruction of monthly NAO and EU indices back to AD 1675. Geophys Res Lett 26:2745–2748

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luterbacher J and 33 others (2000) Reconstruction of monthly mean sea level pressure over Europe for the Late Maunder Minimum period (1675–1715) based on canonical correlation analysis. Int J Clim

    Google Scholar 

  • Manley G (1974) Central England temperatures: monthly means 1659 to 1973. Quart J Roy Met Soc 100:389–405

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell JFB, Johns TC, Gregory JM, Tett SFB (1995) Climate response to increasing levels of greenhouse gases and sulphate arrosols. Nature 376:501–504

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mysak LA, Venegas SA (1998) Decadal climate oscillations in the Arctic: Anew feedback loop for atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions. Geophys Res Lett 25:3607–3610

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Negendank JFW, Zolitschka B, Rein B, Brauer A, Brüchmann C, Sanchez A, Vos H (1999) Varves and solar variability (Lake Holzmaar, Eifel, Germany). Bulletin de la Société belge de Géologie 106 (1997): 53–61

    Google Scholar 

  • Namias J (1981) Teleconnections of 700-mb height anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere. In: Fleminger, A (ed) CalCOFI Atlas No. 29, Marine Life Research Program, Scripps Institution of Oceanography

    Google Scholar 

  • Nozaki Y, Rye DM, Turekian KK, Dodge RE (1978)13C and 14C variations in a Bermuda coral. Geophys Res Lett 5:825–828

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Osborn, TJ, Briffa KR, Tett SFB, Jones PD, Trigo RM (1999) Evaluation of the North Atlantic Oscillation as simulated by a coupled climate model. Clim Dyn 15:685–702

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parker DE, Legg TP, Folland CK (1992) A new daily Central England Temperature series, 1772–1991. Int J Clim 12:317–342

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parkonson CL, Cavalieri DJ, Gloersen P, Zwally HJ, Comiso JC (1999) Arctic sea ice extents, areas, and trends, 1978–1996. J Geophys Res 104:20837–20856

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peterson TC, Vose RS (1997) An overview of the global historical climatology network temperature database. Bull Amer Met Soc 78:2837–2850

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pyle DM (1998) How did the summer go? Nature 393:415–416

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rahmstorf S (1996) On the freshwater forcing and transport of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Clim Dyn 12:799–811

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rogers JC (1989) Patterns of low-frequency monthly sealevel pressure variability (1899–1986) and associated wave cyclone frequencies. J Climate 3:1364–1379

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schimel D and 26 others (1996) Radiative forcing of climate change. In: Houghton JT et al (ed) Climate Change 1995. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 65–131

    Google Scholar 

  • Schulz M, Berger WHB, Sarnthein M, Grootes PM (1999) Amplitude variations of 1470-year climate oscil-lations during the last 100,000 years linked to fluctuations of continental ice mass. Geophys Res Lett 26:3385–3388

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seina A, Palosuo E (1996) The classification ofthe maximum annual extent of sea ice cover in the Baltic Sea 1720–1995. Meri-Report series of the Finnish Institute of Marine Resarch 27:79–81

    Google Scholar 

  • Shindell D, Rind D, Balachandran N, Lean J, Loonergan P(1999) Solar cycle variability, ozone, and climate. Science 284:305–308

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stuiver M, Grootes PM (2000) GISP2 oxygen isotope ratios. Quat Res 53: 277–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stuiver M, Grootes PM, Braziunas TF (1995) The GISP2 δ18O climate record of the past 16,500 years and the role of the sun, ocean and volcanoes. Quat Res 44:341–354

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stuiver M, Braziunas TF, Grootes PM, Zielinski GA (1997) Is there evidence for solar forcing of climate in the GISP2 oxygen isotope record? Quat Res 48:259–266

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Timmermann A, Latif M, Voss R, Groetzner A (1998) Northern Hemisphere interdecadal variability: a cou- pled air-sea mode. J Climate 11:1906–1931

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Torrence C, Compo GP (1998) A practical guide to wavelets. Bull Amer Met Soc 79:61–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vautard R, Ghil M(1989) Singular spectrum analysis in nonlinear dynamics, with applications to paleo- climatic time series. Physica D 35:395–424

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Von Storch H, Zwiers FW (1999) Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Zolitschka B (1998) Paläoklimatische Bedeutung laminierter Sedimente. Gebr. Borntraeger, Berlin

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Author notes

  1. Andre Paul

    Present address: Department of Geosciences, University of Bremen, Postfach 33 04 40, D-28334, Bremen, Germany

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Geosciences, University of Kiel, Olshausenstr. 40, D-24118, Kiel, Germany

    Michael Schulz

  2. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, 9500 Gilman Drive, CA, 92093-0244, USA

    Wolfgang H. Berger & Andre Paul

  3. School of Archaeology and Palaeoecology, Queen’s University of Belfast, University Road, UK-Belfast, BT7 1NN, Northern Ireland

    Michael Baillie

  4. Institute of Geography, University of Berne, Hallerstrasse 12, CH-3012, Bern, Switzerland

    Jürg Luterbacher

  5. Institute of Oceanography, University of Hamburg, Troplowitzstraße 7, D-22529, Hamburg, Germany

    Jens Meincke

  6. GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, D-14473, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, Germany

    Jörg F. W. Negendank

  7. Microwave Group-Ottawa River, Inc., 3954 Armitage Rd., Ontario, K0A 1T0, Canada

    René O. Ramseier

Authors
  1. Michael Schulz
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Wolfgang H. Berger
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Michael Baillie
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Jürg Luterbacher
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Jens Meincke
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Jörg F. W. Negendank
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Andre Paul
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. René O. Ramseier
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Michael Schulz .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Fachbereich Geowissenschaften, Universität Bremen, Klagenfurter Straße 2, 28359, Bremen, Germany

    Gerold Wefer

  2. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Geological Research Division, University of California, 92093-0215, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA

    Wolfgang H. Berger

  3. Niedersächsisches Institut für historische Küstenforschung, Viktoriastraße 26/28, 26483, Wilhelmshaven, Germany

    Karl-Ernst Behre

  4. University of Bergen, Department of Geology, Allégaten 41, 5007, Bergen, Norway

    Eystein Jansen

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2002 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Schulz, M. et al. (2002). Tracing Climate-Variability: The Search for Climate Dynamics on Decadal to Millennial Time Scales. In: Wefer, G., Berger, W.H., Behre, KE., Jansen, E. (eds) Climate Development and History of the North Atlantic Realm. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-04965-5_9

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-04965-5_9

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-07744-9

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-662-04965-5

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation