Abstract
The distribution of the innovations is the second most important component in a process. With a good understanding of the heteroskedasticity, the distribution of the empirical innovations can be studied. A normal distribution can be clearly rejected, regardless of the model used for the heteroskedasticity. A Student distribution with a number of degrees of freedom around 5 gives a simple and good characterization of the empirical distributions. This shows that the fat tail observed in the return distributions is mostly generated by the innovations, while the volatility feed-back mechanism plays a small role.
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References
Zumbach, G.: The riskmetrics 2006 methodology. Technical report, RiskMetrics Group (2006). Available at: www.riskmetrics.com and www.ssrn.com
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© 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
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Zumbach, G. (2013). The Innovation Distributions. In: Discrete Time Series, Processes, and Applications in Finance. Springer Finance. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31742-2_13
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31742-2_13
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-31741-5
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-31742-2
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