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The Socioeconomic Impact of Energy Security in Southeast Asia

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Energy and Non-Traditional Security (NTS) in Asia

Part of the book series: SpringerBriefs in Environment, Security, Development and Peace ((BRIEFSSECUR,volume 1))

Abstract

This chapter aims to analyse some of the energy security issues facing ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries and their socioeconomic impacts, in the context of developments in the global energy markets. ASEAN countries subscribe to the core strategies of the development of new sources, diversification of supply and greater use of renewables; promotion of competitive markets; greater energy efficiency in use; and regional cooperation, trade in energy goods and services, and cross-country investments. Key challenges are the reduction of fossil fuel subsidies and improving access to modern energy services. The adoption of renewable energy in the region is hampered by its high cost.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Energy security has been defined in terms of the availability, reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy supplies. Sustainability is considered in the context of “low emissions of greenhouse gas and other pollutants; minimal contribution to local, regional or global threats to environmental quality; and protection of energy systems from impacts of a changing climate” (Elkind 2010, p. 122).

  2. 2.

    High oil prices due to supply disruptions or other exogenous supply shocks may necessitate different policy responses. For example, protection against piracy and terrorism in the Malacca Straits, which is a major shipping lane in Southeast Asia, is enhanced by joint surveillance activities of Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia.

  3. 3.

    ASEAN, “Selected Basic ASEAN Indicators: as of 15 February 2011”, in: ASEAN Statistics (2009), at: http://www.aseansec.org/19226.htm (7 January 2012).

  4. 4.

    For statistics on net energy imports as a percentage of energy use, see ADB 2011, p. 259. For Laos, data was not available.

  5. 5.

    Nguyen, Anuchit, “Gas and Oil Discovered in Myanmar”, in: International Herald Tribune (6 August 2006), at: http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/08/06/Bloomberg/sxptt.php (22 August 2008).

  6. 6.

    Huyen, Ngoc, “Vietnam to Build Two Nuclear Power Plants”, in: VietNamNet Bridge (14 April 2008), at: http://vietnamnet.vn/service/printversion.vnn?article_id=1054251 (7 January 2012).

  7. 7.

    “Russia to Build Nuclear Reactor in Myanmar”, in: NewScientist (15 May 2007), at: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11856-russia-to-build-nuclear-reactor-in-myanmar.html (7 January 2012); “Russia to Build Nuclear Reactor in Myanmar”, in: Reuters (15 May 2007), at: http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/05/15/us-russia-myanmar-nuclear-idUSL1565024820070515 (7 January 2012).

  8. 8.

    “Oil Prices”, in: OECD Factbook 2010: Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics, at: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/factbook-2010-en/05/02/03/index.html?contentType=&itemId=/content/chapter/factbook-2010-44-en&containerItemId=/content/serial/18147364&accessItemIds=&mimeType=text/html (7 November 2011).

  9. 9.

    ASEAN, “Selected Basic ASEAN Indicators: as of 15 February 2011”, in: ASEAN Statistics (2009), at: http://www.aseansec.org/19226.htm (7 January 2012).

  10. 10.

    Ibid.

  11. 11.

    The inverse of GDP per unit of energy, which is the amount of energy used to produce a unit of GDP, indicates the energy intensity of production.

  12. 12.

    “Electricity Surges Ahead”, in: Singapore Notes (1 July 2011), at: http://singaporedesk.blogspot.com/2011/07/electricity-surges-ahead.html (7 January 2012).

  13. 13.

    Remo, Amy R., “New Timetable for Power Program Set”, in: Philippine Daily Inquirer (1 November 2011): B1.

  14. 14.

    The Singapore Government, “‘Grow and Share’ Package Overview”, at: http://www.growandshare.gov.sg/Overview.htm (4 November 2011); The Singapore Government, “Utilities-Save (U-Save) Rebate”, at: http://www.growandshare.gov.sg/FAQs.htm#5 (4 November 2011); and “800k Households Get $35 m in U-Save Rebates”, in: The Straits Times (30 June 2011), at: http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_685753.html (7 January 2012).

  15. 15.

    The rebate amount depends on the number of rooms in the flat.

  16. 16.

    Support was earlier provided as Utility Schemes in the early 2000s. The increase in demand for electricity due to the U-Save Rebate scheme is due only to the income effect, there being no relative price change due to the scheme. As microeconomic theory has shown, an income subsidy is superior to a subsidy-in-kind.

  17. 17.

    Remo, Amy R., “Napocor Needs P15B for Off-grid Plants”, in: Philippine Daily Inquirer (31 October 2011): B1.

  18. 18.

    Ideally, the lifeline rate scheme, as a redistributive mechanism, should be financed by the national government or through a universal charge paid by consumers of grid-connected electricity.

  19. 19.

    In the Philippines, the lifeline rates and subsidised tariff rates in the SPUG areas would have both relative price effects (substitution effects, where electricity substitutes other goods as it is relatively cheaper) and income effects (the subsidised lower electricity tariffs free up income, increasing purchasing power, so that consumers can buy more goods and services, including more electricity).

  20. 20.

    Alfian; Suharmoko, Aditya, “Govt Proposes to Reduced Fuel Subsidy”, in: The Jakarta Post (16 August 2008), at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2008/08/16/govt-proposes-reduced-fuel-subsidy.html (6 February 2012); Bradsher, Keith, “Fuel Subsidies Overseas Take a Toll on U.S.”, in: The New York Times (28 July 2008), at: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/28/business/worldbusiness/28subsidy.html (7 January 2012).

  21. 21.

    Alfian; Suharmoko, Aditya, “Govt Proposes to Reduced Fuel Subsidy”, in: The Jakarta Post (16 August 2008), at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2008/08/16/govt-proposes-reduced-fuel-subsidy.html (6 February 2012).

  22. 22.

    For more information, see Bradsher, Keith, “Fuel Subsidies Overseas Take a Toll on U.S.”, in: The New York Times (28 July 2008), at: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/28/business/worldbusiness/28subsidy.html (7 January 2012); Bradsher, Keith, “Prices of Food and Gas Take a Toll in Asia”, in: The New York Times (23 July 2008), at: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/23/business/worldbusiness/23inflate.html (7 January 2012); “Indonesia Sees Costly Oil Stretching Fuel Subsidy”, in: Reuters (20 April 2008), at: http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/04/20/us-ief-indonesia-idUSL2010104120080420 (6 February 2012); Alfian; Suharmoko, Aditya, “Govt Proposes to Reduced Fuel Subsidy”, in: The Jakarta Post (16 August 2008), at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2008/08/16/govt-proposes-reduced-fuel-subsidy.html (6 February 2012); Alfian; Suharmoko, Aditya, “Indonesia: Indonesia Eyes Reduced Fuel Subsidy”, in: The Jakarta Post (17 August 2008), at: http://www.asianewsnet.net/print.php?id=892 (22 August 2008); “WRAPUP 1-Vietnam Hikes Fuel Price, Jakarta Bides Time on Subsidy Cut”, in: Alibaba.com (24 February 2011), at: http://news.alibaba.com/article/detail/energy/100446652-1-wrapup-1-vietnam-hikes-fuel-price%252C.html (7 January 2012).

  23. 23.

    “Malaysia Lifts 2008 Oil and Gas Subsidy Estimate to $14.24 Bn”, in: Alexander’s Gas and Oil Connections (8 May 2008), at: http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/nts82393.htm (21 August 2008); Bradsher, Keith, “Fuel Subsidies Overseas Take a Toll on U.S.”, in: The New York Times (28 July 2008), at: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/28/business/worldbusiness/28subsidy.html (7 January 2012).

  24. 24.

    “Malaysia’s Fuel Subsidy to Rise”, in: The Straits Times (10 March 2011), at: http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/SEAsia/Story/STIStory_643621.html (22 August 2011).

  25. 25.

    For more information, see Bradsher, Keith, “Fuel Subsidies Overseas Take a Toll on U.S.”, in: The New York Times (28 July 2008), at: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/28/business/worldbusiness/28subsidy.html (7 January 2012); Bradsher, Keith, “Prices of Food and Gas Take a Toll in Asia”, in: The New York Times (23 July 2008), at: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/23/business/worldbusiness/23inflate.html (7 January 2012); Koswanage, Niluksi; Ahmad, Razak, “Najib and Malaysia’s Fuel Subsidies”, in: Malaysia’s Dilemma: Analysing Malaysia’s Economic, Political and Social Dilemmas (27 May 2011), at: http://malaysiasdilemma.wordpress.com/2011/05/27/najib-and-malaysias-fuel-subsidies/ (7 January 2012); “Malaysia’s Fuel Subsidy to Rise”, in: The Straits Times (10 March 2011), at: http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/SEAsia/Story/STIStory_643621.html (22 August 2011); “Najib: Fuel Subsidies to be Cut Gradually”, in: The Malaysian Insider (17 May 2011), at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/mobile/malaysia/article/najib-fuel-subsidies-to-be-cut-gradually/ (4 October 2011).

  26. 26.

    For more information, see “B10 bn in Loans for Fuel Subsidy”, in: Diplomatsthailand (29 September 2011), at: http://www.diplomatsthailand.com/top-stories/b10bn-in-loans-for-fuel-subsidy (8 October 2011); Master, Ammar, “Fuel Subsidies under Scrutiny in Thailand, Indonesia”, in: AutoBully (10 August 2011), at: http://autobully.com/2011/08/fuel-subsidies-under-scrutiny-in-thailand-indonesia/ (7 January 2012); “Thai PTT Calls for End to Fuel Subsidies”, in: Reuters (6 August 2008), at: http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/08/06/thailand-fuel-subsidies-idUSSP31001920080806 (7 January 2012).

  27. 27.

    McCool, Grant, “Oil Price Forces Vietnam to Lift Controls”, in: The Brunei Times (22 June 2008), at: http://www.bt.com.bn/en/node/44235/print (7 January 2012).

  28. 28.

    Clark, Helen, “Vietnam: Coping with Skyrocketing Fuel Prices”, in: Inter Press Service (1 August 2008), at: http://ipsnews.net/print.asp?idnews=43410 (7 January 2012).

  29. 29.

    For more information, see Altman, Daniel, “Putting A Lasso on Inflation”, in: The New York Times (29 July 2008), at: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/29/business/worldbusiness/29iht-glob30.1.14850266.html (7 January 2012); Clark, Helen, “Vietnam: Coping with Skyrocketing Fuel Prices”, in: Inter Press Service (1 August 2008), at: http://ipsnews.net/print.asp?idnews=43410 (7 January 2012); McCool, Grant, “Oil Price Forces Vietnam to Lift Controls”, in: The Brunei Times (22 June 2008), at: http://www.bt.com.bn/en/node/44235/print (7 January 2012); “Vietnam May Increase Fuel Prices to Cope With Rising Oil Costs”, in: Vietnam Business Finance (16 July 2008), at http://www.vnbusinessnews.com/2008/07/Vietnam-may-increase-fuel-prices-to.html (21 August 2008); “Vietnam’s First Refinery Debuts”, in: PVPro (17 January 2011), at: http://www.pvpro.com.vn/en/news/detail/vietnam’s-first-refinery-debuts-357.html (7 January 2012); “WRAPUP 1-Vietnam Hikes Fuel Price, Jakarta Bides Time on Subsidy Cut”, in: Alibaba.com (24 February 2011), at: http://news.alibaba.com/article/detail/energy/100446652-1-wrapup-1-vietnam-hikes-fuel-price%252C.html (7 January 2012).

  30. 30.

    “Cambodia’s Fuel Subsidies to Cost 300 Mln USD in 2008”, in: Khmerization (29 May 2008), at: http://khmerization.blogspot.com/2008/05/cambodias-fuel-subsidies-to-cost-300.html (7 March 2012).

  31. 31.

    “Laos Raises Retail Fuel Prices”, in: China Radio International (3 July 2008), at: http://english.cri.cn/3130/2008/07/03/1781s376508.htm (7 January 2012).

  32. 32.

    Ibid.

  33. 33.

    For more information, see “Lao Government Considers Fuel Subsidy”, in: Laovoices (11 March 2011), at: http://laovoices.com/lao-government-considers-fuel-subsidy/ (7 January 2012); “Laos Raises Retail Fuel Prices”, in: China Radio International (3 July 2008), at: http://english.cri.cn/3130/2008/07/03/1781s376508.htm (7 January 2012).

  34. 34.

    Gaung, Juliet Shwe, “Fuel Meeting Ignores Black Market”, in: The Myanmar Times (28 February-6 March 2011), at: http://www.mmtimes.com/2011/business/564/biz56403.html (7 January 2012).

  35. 35.

    For more information, see Devine, Siobhan, “Analysis: Gas, Oil Get Myanmar Off Hook”, in: United Press International (27 September 2007), at: http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2007/09/27/Analysis-Gas-oil-get-Myanmar-off-hook/UPI-81301190907679/ (7 January 2012); Gaung, Juliet Shwe, “Fuel Meeting Ignores Black Market”, in: The Myanmar Times (28 February-6 March 2011), at: http://www.mmtimes.com/2011/business/564/biz56403.html (7 January 2012).

  36. 36.

    “Brunei Tightens Belt as Fuel Price Subsidies Quadruple in 3 Years”, in: International Herald Tribune (26 May 2008), at: http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=13204982 (22 August 2008).

  37. 37.

    For more information, see “Brunei Tightens Belt as Fuel Price Subsidies Quadruple in 3 Years”, in: International Herald Tribune (26 May 2008), at: http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=13204982 (22 August 2008); Masli, Ubaidillah, “Fuel Subsidy is about Well-being”, in: The Brunei Times (2 February 2011), at: http://www.bt.com.bn/news-national/2011/02/02/fuel-subsidy-about-well-being (7 January 2012).

  38. 38.

    Alfian; Suharmoko, Aditya, “Indonesia: Indonesia Eyes Reduced Fuel Subsidy”, in: The Jakarta Post (17 August 2008), at: http://www.asianewsnet.net/print.php?id=892 (22 August 2008).

  39. 39.

    Though CCTs can reduce poverty in the short term through cash transfers and in the long term through conditionalities on human capital development (usually health and education), they are not necessarily good instruments for dealing with crisis situations and transient poverty. CCTs are better suited for dealing with structural poverty (Handayani and Burkley 2010, pp. xxvii–xxx).

  40. 40.

    Transport cost savings can include savings in transport time, fuel, vehicle maintenance and environmental damages from less air pollution.

  41. 41.

    By the third quarter of 2011, due to the European debt crisis that was triggered by the debt problems of Greece and its spillover effects on the growth of the global economy, inflation was no longer a major concern for most monetary authorities. Given the expectation that global demand will decline, increases in interest rates to temper inflationary expectations are generally viewed as not warranted. Monetary authorities, in this case, are more likely to hold interest rate increases in order to stimulate domestic demand to compensate for a drop in exports.

  42. 42.

    Rohter, Larry: “Shipping Costs Start to Crimp Globalization”, in: The New York Times (3 August 2008), at: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/03/business/worldbusiness/03global.html (7 January 2012).

  43. 43.

    Sovacool, Benjamin K.; D’Agostino, Anthony, “Greater Mekong Subregion: Turning Water into Gold”, in: Asian Trends Monitoring Bulletin (republished 27 June 2011), at: http://siew.sg/node/557 (7 January 2012).

  44. 44.

    The ratio of how much energy is used to make ethanol to how much energy it delivers is known as the energy balance. An estimate given by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) suggests that a British thermal unit (Btu) of fossil energy is consumed in producing and delivering corn ethanol that results in 1.3 Btu of usable energy in the fuel tank; see Meigs, James B., “The Ethanol Fallacy: Op-Ed”, in: Popular Mechanics (18 December 2009), at: http://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/alternative-fuel/biofuels/4237539 (7 March 2012).

  45. 45.

    “Biodiesel Wonder Plant Could Spell Doom for Kenya”, in: The East African (26 July–1 August 2010), at: http://naturekenya.org/sites/default/files/EastAfrican%2026July-01Aug2010.pdf (20 August 2011); “BP Gives Up on Jatropha for Biofuel”, in: The Wall Street Journal (17 July 2009), at: http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2009/07/17/bp-gives-up-on-jatropha-for-biofuel/tab/print/ (7 January 2012); Luoma, Jon R., “Hailed as a Miracle Biofuel, Jatropha Falls Short of Hype”, in: Guardian Environment Network (5 May 2009), at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/may/05/jatropha-biofuels-food-crops (7 January 2012).

  46. 46.

    Reports suggest that in 2005 the Myanmar government ordered the planting of jatropha but did not build adequate infrastructure to process them into biofuel. The seeds were then left to rot.

  47. 47.

    A large-scale jatropha plant project launched by the Arroyo administration lost PhP1 billion (around US$23 million) as cost incurred for planting jatropha on nearly 4,000 ha of land. The plant oil turned out to be not commercially viable; see “Jatropha Project Bombs”, in: Philippine Daily Inquirer (7 November 2011): A9.

  48. 48.

    “Climate Change: Jatropha—Not Really Green”, in: IRIN: Humanitarian News and Analysis (23 March 2011), at: http://www.irinnews.org/printreport.aspx?reportid=92267 (7 January 2012).

  49. 49.

    This additional capacity is about 5 % of the existing total installed capacity in the Philippines, which was estimated at around 15,610 MW in 2004; see DOE Portal, the Philippine Department of Energy, at: http://www.doe.gov.ph/statistics/power.htm (7 January 2012).

  50. 50.

    This figure applies to the Meralco franchise area, which is the largest distribution utility in the country covering the National Capital Region (NCR) and surrounding areas.

  51. 51.

    Remo, Amy R., “Implement ‘Green’ Power Projects in Phases”, in: Philippine Daily Inquirer (29 September 2011): B2.

  52. 52.

    A major barrier to energy conservation and efficiency improvements arises when these projects entail large capital investments but have long payback periods. Even at a smaller scale, poorer households in countries with imperfect capital markets may find energy-saving bulbs too steep in price compared to that of incandescent bulbs even though the net savings over the life of the energy-saving bulb is higher.

  53. 53.

    In addition to domestic subsidies, some renewable energy projects may also receive grants from international or foreign organisations and may also qualify for carbon credits. The economic basis for foreign grants or subsidies would be the positive externalities to other countries generated by renewable energy, for instance, in the mitigation of global climate change.

  54. 54.

    The infant industry argument in trade is based on a dynamic theory of comparative advantage: temporary protection of domestic firms can generate positive learning and spillover effects. The difference though is that instead of a trade instrument (e.g. a tariff), we have a domestic instrument, a production subsidy for an alternative energy technology. If there exists dynamic production externalities, then the production subsidy, a domestic policy instrument, is a first-best policy. The effectiveness of the policy depends on whether the dynamic efficiency improvements outweigh the subsidy costs while its political economy aspect depends on whether the subsidy is time-bound and perceived to be temporary to motivate firms to innovate.

  55. 55.

    The failure of import-substitution strategies, based on the infant industry argument, in some countries in Latin America and Africa and the much better economic performance of some Asian countries (e.g. Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan) that pursued export-oriented strategies lend empirical evidence against infant industry protection.

  56. 56.

    For instance, there are questions on whether Germany, which has relatively less sunny hours, should have invested as much in solar technology. Another example is that of Solyndra, a solar panel maker that received government subsidies in the US, which has declared bankruptcy. Solyndra received US$535 million in federal guaranteed loans. It has been argued that Solyndra is a victim of technological success, that is, Solyndra cannot compete with the solar panels from China whose prices have dropped due to economies of scale. Reports suggest that China provided around US$30 billion in subsidies to its solar industry in 2010 and currently accounts for 54 % of the world’s solar panels. On the other hand, an argument supporting government subsidies is that federal loan programmes require the government to take risks that the private sector will not and, due to the very nature of risk-taking, there will be failures and successes involved. The question of whether renewable energy firms should receive subsidies persists; see Nocera, Joe, “The Phony Solyndra Scandal”, in: The New York Times (23 September 2011), at: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/24/opinion/the-phony-solyndra-scandal.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print (7 January 2012).

  57. 57.

    van Doren, Peter, “The Evidence is Mixed”, in: The New York Times (21 September 2011), at: http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2011/09/20/why-isnt-the-us-a-leader-in-green-technology/the-evidence-is-mixed (7 January 2012).

  58. 58.

    ASCOPE, ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement (APSA), at: http://ascope.org/component/content/article/6-projects/30-apsa.html. (5 October 2011).

  59. 59.

    Ho, Abigail L., “ASEAN Energy Ministers OK Pact Assuring Region’s Oil Supply: Region’s Producers to Offer ‘Friendship Prices’”, in: Philippine Daily Inquirer (11 August 2008), at: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20080811-153865/ASEAN-energy-ministers-OK-pact-assuring-regions-oil-supply (7 January 2012).

Abbreviations

ADB:

Asian Development Bank

APG:

ASEAN Power Grid

APSA:

ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement

ASCOPE:

ASEAN Council on Petroleum

ASEAN:

Association of Southeast Asian Nations

Btu:

British thermal unit

CCT:

Conditional cash transfer

CNG:

Compressed natural gas

CSPS:

Centre for Strategic and Policy Studies

DSWD:

Department of Social Welfare and Development, Republic of the Philippines

FIT:

Feed-in-tariffs

GDP:

Gross domestic product

GHG:

Greenhouse gas

GMS:

Greater Mekong Subregion

GST:

Government service tax

HDB:

Housing and Development Board

IMF:

International Monetary Fund

kWh:

Kilowatts hour

LIHD:

Low-input high-diversity

LPG:

Liquefied petroleum gas

MW:

Megawatts

NCR:

National Capital Region

NPC:

National Power Corporation

NREB:

National Renewable Energy Board

NREL:

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

OECD:

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

PPP:

Purchasing power parity

R&D:

Research and development

SIIA:

Singapore Institute of International Affairs

SPUG:

Small Power Utilities Group

TAGP:

Trans ASEAN Gas Pipeline

toe:

Tons of oil equivalent

UNDP:

United Nations Development Programme

UNESCAP:

United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

US:

United States

U-Save:

Utilities-Save

VAT:

Value-added tax

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  1. School of Economics, University of the Philippines (Diliman), Quezon City, The Philippines

    Maria Nimfa F. Mendoza

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  1. S. Rajaratnam School of Int. Studies, Centre for Non-Trad. Security Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Centre for Non-Trad. Security Studies, Singapore, 639798, Singapore

    Mely Caballero-Anthony

  2. , Division of Economics, Nanyang Technological University, Nanyang Drive 14, Singapore, 637332, Singapore

    Youngho Chang

  3. Energy Studies Institute, Energy Security Division, National University of Singapore, Block A, #10-01, Heng Mui Keng Terrace 29, Singapore, 119620, Singapore

    Nur Azha Putra

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Mendoza, M.N.F. (2012). The Socioeconomic Impact of Energy Security in Southeast Asia. In: Caballero-Anthony, M., Chang, Y., Putra, N. (eds) Energy and Non-Traditional Security (NTS) in Asia. SpringerBriefs in Environment, Security, Development and Peace, vol 1. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-29706-9_4

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