Skip to main content

The Management of Strategic-Foresight Activities: Evidence from Large European Multinationals

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Systemic Management for Intelligent Organizations

Abstract

Despite the strategic relevance of strategic-foresight activities, the strategic-management literature contains only little and fragmented knowledge of how firms successfully manage such activities. This exploratory paper provides insights into the management of strategic-foresight activities based on in-depth case studies of five large multinational companies. According to our findings, strategic-foresight activities (1) are structurally managed within an organization via one of three models, (2) consist of initiation, modeling, and finalization phases, which occur in circular, iterative loops, (3) use increasingly qualitative and participative methods, (4) support strategic decision-making with a main focus either on innovation and exploration or on planning and exploitation, (5) are subject to substantial change depending on the content-related openness of the corporate strategy (diversification vs. focusing) and the openness of the strategic-planning process (outside vs. inside orientation), and (6) are induced by a radical and sudden change in the corporate strategy.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Aaltonen M, Sanders I (2005) Complexity as a sensemaking framework for methodology. In: Aaltonen M, Barth T, Casti JL, Mitleton-Kelly E, Sanders TI (eds) Complexity as a sensemaking framework. Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku, pp 21–37

    Google Scholar 

  • Ansoff HI (1965) Corporate strategy: an analytical approach to business policy for growth and expansion. McGraw-Hill, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Ansoff HI (1980) Strategic issue management. Strateg Manag J 1(2):131–148

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • BASF, I1, I2, I3. Interview BASF’s strategic planning & controlling.

    Google Scholar 

  • Becker P (2002) Corporate foresight in Europe: a first overview. University of Bielefeld, Institute for Science and Technology Studies

    Google Scholar 

  • Becker WM, Freeman VM (2006) Going from global trends to corporate strategy. McKinsey Quart 3:17–19

    Google Scholar 

  • Beer S (1972) Brain of the firm. The Penguin Press, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Brown SL, Eisenhardt KM (1997) The art of continuous change: linking complexity theory and time-paced evolution in relentlessly shifting organizations. Adm Sci Q 42(1):1–34

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burmeister K, Neef A, Albert B, Glockner H (2002) Z_Dossier 02: Zukunftsforschung und Unternehmen. Praxis, Methoden, Perspektiven

    Google Scholar 

  • Burmeister K, Neef A, Beyers B (2004) Corporate Foresight – Unternehmen gestalten Zukunft. Murmann, Hamburg

    Google Scholar 

  • Chakravarthy BS, White RE (2002) Strategy process: forming, implementing and changing strategies. In: Pettigrew A, Thomas H, Whittington R (eds) Handbook of strategy and management. Sage, London, pp 182–205

    Google Scholar 

  • Chakravarthy BS, Müller-Stewens G, Lorange P, Lechner C (2003) Defining the contours of the strategy process field. In: Chakravarthy B, Müller-Stewens G, Lorange P, Lechner C (eds) Strategy process: shaping the contours of the field. Blackwell, Oxford, pp 1–17

    Google Scholar 

  • Collins JC, Porras JI (1996) Building your company’s vision. Harv Bus Rev Sept–Oct: 65–77

    Google Scholar 

  • Costanzo LA, MacKay RB (2009) Handbook of research on strategy and foresight. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham

    Google Scholar 

  • Cunha MPE, Palma P, Costa NGD (2004) Tracking changes in organizational foresight. Paper presented at the 2nd international conference on organizational foresight, Glasgow

    Google Scholar 

  • DBR I1 Interview Deutsche Bank (Research) Macro Trends Team

    Google Scholar 

  • DC, I1, I2, I3. Interview DaimlerChrysler Society and Technology Research Group

    Google Scholar 

  • Dutton JE, Duncan R (1987) The creation of momentum for change through the process of strategic issue diagnosis. Strateg Manag J 4:307–323

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dutton JE, Ottensmeyer E (1987) Strategic issue management systems: forms, functions, and contexts. Acad Manage Rev 12(2):355–365

    Google Scholar 

  • Eisenhardt KM (1995) Building theories from case study research. In: Huber GP, Van de Ven AH (eds) Longitudinal field research methods: studying processes of organizational change. Sage, Thousand Oaks, pp 65–90

    Google Scholar 

  • El Sawy OA, Pauchant TC (1988) Triggers, templates and twitches in the tracking of emerging strategic issues. Strateg Manage J 9(5):455–473

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elenkov DS (1997) Strategic uncertainty and environmental scanning: the case for institutional influences on scanning behavior. Strateg Manage J 18(4):287–302

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Espejo R, Schumann W, Schwaninger M, Bilello U (1996) Organizational transformation and learning: a cybernetic approach to management. Wiley, Chichester

    Google Scholar 

  • Godet M (2001) Creating futures. Scenario planning as a strategic management tool. Economica, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Gordon TJ (1994) Methods frontiers and integration: UNDP/African Futures

    Google Scholar 

  • Grosu D (2007) Visions and visioning in foresight activities. Paper presented at the COST A22, Athens

    Google Scholar 

  • Gruber M, Venter C (2006) Die Kunst, die Zukunft zu erfinden. Zeitschrift für betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung 58(11):958–984

    Google Scholar 

  • Hilti I1 Interview Hilti Corporate Development

    Google Scholar 

  • Horton A (1999) A simple guide to successful foresight. Foresight 01(01):5–9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoskisson RE, Hitt MA, Wan WP, Yiu D (1999) Theory and research in strategic management: swings of a pendulum. J Manage 25(3):417–456

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kreibich R, Schlaffer A, Trapp C, Burmeister K (2002) Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen. Sekretariat für Zukunftsforschung, Berlin

    Google Scholar 

  • Lederman LL (1984) Foresight activities in the U.S.A.: time for a re-assessment? Long Range Plan 17(3):41–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lüdeke MKB (2007) Bridging qualitative and quantitative methods in foresight. Paper presented at the COST A22, Athens

    Google Scholar 

  • Major EJ, Cordey-Hayes M (2000a) Engaging the business support network to give SMEs the benefit of foresight. Technovation 20(11):539–603

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Major EJ, Cordey-Hayes M (2000b) Knowledge translation: a new perspective on knowledge transfer and foresight. Foresight 2(4):411–423

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Major EJ, Asch D, Cordey-Hayes M (2001) Foresight as a core competence. Futures 33:91–107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mintzberg H (1994) The fall and rise of strategic planning. Harv Bus Rev Jan–Feb: 107–114

    Google Scholar 

  • Müller A, Müller-Stewens G (2009) Strategic foresight. Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen – Instrumente, Prozesse, Fallstudien. Schäffer-Poeschel, Stuttgart

    Google Scholar 

  • Oomens MJH, van den Bosch FAJ (1999) Strategic issue management in major European-based companies. Long Range Plann 32(1):49–57

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roxburgh C (2009) The use and abuse of scanrios. Mc Kinsey Quarterly, Nov: 1–10

    Google Scholar 

  • Ruff F (2006) Corporate foresight: integrating the future business environment into innovation and strategy. Int J Technol Manage 34(3/4):278–295

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schwaninger M (2001) Intelligent organizations: an integrative framework. Syst Res Behav Sci 18(2):137–158

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schwaninger M (2009) Intelligent organizations: powerful models for systemic management. Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg

    Google Scholar 

  • Schwaninger M (2010) Model-based management (MBM): a vital prerequisite for organizational viability. Kybernetes 39(9/10):1419–1428

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schwartz P (1991) The art of the long view: planning for the future in an uncertain world. Doubleday, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Schwarz JO (2006) The future of futures studies: a delphi study with a German perspective. Shaker, Aachen

    Google Scholar 

  • Steinle C, Ahlers F, Rutter C (2000) Zukunftsforschung und Strategieentwicklung in Finanzdienstleistungsunternehmungen: Konzept, empirisches Schlaglicht und Gestaltungsoptionen. Kredit und Kapital 4:571–604

    Google Scholar 

  • Slaughter RA (1995) The foresight principle – cultural recovery in the 21st century. Adamantine Press, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Strauss AL, Corbin J (1990) Basics of qualitative research: grounded theory procedures and techniques. Sage, Newbury Parks

    Google Scholar 

  • Suarez FF, Oliva R (2005) Environmental change and organizational transformation. Indus Corporate Change 14(6):1017–1041

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas JB, McDaniel RR (1990) Interpreting strategic issues: effects of strategy and the information-processing structure of top management teams. Acad Manage J 33:286–306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsoukas H, Shepherd J (2004) Managing the future: foresight in the knowledge economy. Blackwell, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • TUI I1, I3 Interviews TUI Corporate Research & Innovation

    Google Scholar 

  • Van der Duin P (2006) Qualitative futures research for innovation. Eburon Academics, Delft

    Google Scholar 

  • Van der Heijden K (2004) Insights into foresight (afterword). In: Tsoukas H, Shepherd J (eds) Managing the future – foresight in the knowledge economy. Blackwell, Oxford, pp 204–211

    Google Scholar 

  • Voros J (2003) A generic foresight process framework. Foresight 5(3):10–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wack P (1985) Scenarios: shooting the rapids. Harv Bus Rev Nov–Dec: 139–150

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Günther Müller-Stewens .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Müller-Stewens, G., Mueller, A., Lüders, V. (2012). The Management of Strategic-Foresight Activities: Evidence from Large European Multinationals. In: Grösser, S., Zeier, R. (eds) Systemic Management for Intelligent Organizations. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-29244-6_4

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics