Demographic Change in Countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): Reducing Dependence on Immigration

Abstract

During 1970–2010, demographic changes in six GCC countries were influenced largely by the oil boom that followed the price rise generated by the Saudi Arabian oil embargo of 1973. With increasing oil revenues, each country undertook massive development that resulted in, among other things, improvements in health and education services. As girls’ education increased and modern contraception became available, fertility and population growth rates declined. As the workforces were small and lacked needed skills, this led to increasing inflows of expatriate workers. Policies were initiated in the mid-1980s but had no appreciable impact. In view of the resulting heavy dependence on expatriate workers, the GCC countries have stepped up emphasis on workforce nationalization.

During the next four decades to 2050, the GCC will face two main demographic challenges – population ageing and a slowing down of the increase in national workforces. Population ageing, the increasing proportion of persons 60/65 years and older, will necessitate identification of issues facing older persons and how to address them. The slowing down of the increase in the national workforce will call for enhanced efforts to increase the supply of national workers and reduce the rise in labour demand. Hence, to achieve targets of reducing reliance on expatriate workers, GCC countries should focus on training nationals, encouraging female participation and promoting the use of labour-saving technology.

For comments on an earlier draft, the author would like to thank Dr. Francois Farah, formerly Chief of Social Development Division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for West Asia (UN-ESCWA) and currently UNFPA Representative in Romania and Country Director for Macedonia, Moldova and Serbia. The author alone is responsible for any shortcomings.