Abstract
The Theta model created a lot of interest in academic circles due to its surprising performance in the M3-competition, the biggest ever time series forecasting competition. As a result in the subsequent years it became a benchmark in any empirical forecasting exercise and an essential tool for efficient Supply Chain Management ad planning as it provides very accurate point forecasts. The present study focuses on if the Theta model is a special case of Simple Exponential Smoothing with drift (SES-d). The Theta model outperforms SES-d in the Quarterly-M3 and Other-M3 subsets by 0.30% and 0.36%.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Assimakopoulos, V., Nikolopoulos, K.: The Theta Model: A Decomposition Approach to Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting 16(4), 521–530 (2000)
Makridakis, S., Hibon, M.: The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications. International Journal of Forecasting 16(4), 451–476 (2000)
Hyndman, R.J., Billah, B.: Unmasking the Theta method. International Journal of Forecasting 19(2), 287–290 (2003)
Nikolopoulos, K., Maris, K., Tavanidou, E., Metaxiotis, K., Assimakopoulos, V.: Supporting Business Decisions through Forecasting: A Case Study in a Greek Tobacco Distribution Company. Journal of Information & Knowledge Management 2(3), 237–244 (2003)
Koning, A.J., Franses, P.H., Hibon, M., Stekler, H.O.: The M3 competition: Statistical tests of the results. International Journal of Forecasting 21(3), 397–409 (2005)
Nikolopoulos, K., Assimakopoulos, V.: Theta Intelligent Forecasting Information System. Industrial Management and Data Systems 103(9), 711–726 (2003)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Nikolopoulos, K., Assimakopoulos, V., Bougioukos, N., Litsa, A., Petropoulos, F. (2011). The Theta Model: An Essential Forecasting Tool for Supply Chain Planning. In: Lee, G. (eds) Advances in Automation and Robotics, Vol. 2. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, vol 123. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25646-2_56
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25646-2_56
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-25645-5
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-25646-2
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)