The Study Presents a New, Explorative Perspective on the Uncertainty of Future Developments

Abstract

Scenarios free strategic planners from the compulsion to plan a one-dimensional future, allowing alternative views of what might lie ahead. However, strategic planners and therefore scenarios must remain focused on decisive issues for future developments. To identify the consequences of our decision-making, however, we need to know which drivers to monitor at which point in time in order not to miss critical developments. Only then can we become aware of turns of event as soon as possible. This study seeks to provide a snapshot of the current spread of expectations for 18 specific topics which are relevant for the future development of the Logistics industry. The aim is to indicate how predictable or unpredictable a given topic may be. Besides introducing and developing our concept of switchpoints, another aim of the study was to employ this technique to give uncommon insights into the future a stage – insights that just might otherwise turn out to be “unheard prophecies”. The study presents these ideas in a manner that allows readers to consider the relevance of potential non-mainstream insights to their individual situation and factor these insights into their strategic planning and decisions.