Abstract
When a model is constructed from “first principles”, its variables inherit the sense implied in those principles which can be general laws or derived equations, e.g., like Kirchhoff’s laws in the theory of electric circuits. When an empirical model is constructed from a time realisation, it is a separate task to reveal relationships between model parameters and object characteristics. It is not always possible to measure all variables entering model equations either in principle or due to technical reasons. So, one has to deal with available data and, probably, perform additional data transformations before constructing a model.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
- 2.
Thus, experiments show that in electric measurements (e.g., Fig. 6.2) a sensitive wideband device (e.g., a radio receiver) connected in parallel with a voltmeter or a cardiograph detects also noise, human speech and music, etc.
- 3.
In the field of artificial neural networks, somewhat different terminology is accepted. A test series is a series used to compare different empirical models. It allows to select the best one among them. For the “honest” comparison of the best model with an object, one uses one more time series called a validation time series. A training time series is often called a learning sample. However, we follow the terminology described in the text above.
- 4.
Not a power. Mean power equals zero in this case, since a signal must decay to zero at infinity to be integrable over the entire number axis.
- 5.
Difference of Gaussians, i.e. Gauss functions.
- 6.
Thus, a phase of a pendulum oscillations (Fig. 3.5a) can be changed by holding it back at a point of maximal deflection from an equilibrium state without energy consumption.
- 7.
This narrow-band-gap semiconductor characterised by a large mobility of charge carriers is promising in respect of the increase in the operating speed of semiconductor devices.
- 8.
Liquid nitrogen in a thermos is under boiling temperature. At a low heat flow from the sample, small bubbles arise at its surface. They cover the entire surface at a more intensive heating. Thus, a vapour film is created, which isolates the sample from the cooling liquid.
References
Afraimovich, V.S., Nekorkin, V.I., Osipov, G.V., Shalfeev, V.D.: Stability, structures, and chaos in nonlinear synchronisation networks. Gor’ky Inst. Appl. Phys. RAS, Gor’ky, (in Russian) (1989)
Aivazian, S.A.: Statistical Investigation of Dependencies. Metallurgiya, Moscow, (in Russian) (1968)
Anishchenko, V.S., Vadivasova, T.Ye.: Relationship between frequency and phase characteristics of chaos: two criteria of synchronization. J. Commun. Technol. Electron. 49(1), 69–75 (2004)
Arnhold, J., Lehnertz, K., Grassberger, P., Elger, C.E.: A robust method for detecting interdependences: application to intracranially recorded EEG. Physica D. 134, 419–430 (1999)
Astaf’eva N.M.: Wavelet analysis: basic theory and some applications. Phys. Uspekhi. 39, 1085–1108 (1996)
Barenblatt, G.I.: Similarity, Self-similarity, Intermediate Asymptotics, Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad (1982). Translated into English: Scaling, Self-Similarity, and Intermediate Asymptotics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1996)
Bezruhcko, B.P., Erastova, E.N.: About possibility of chaotic solutions in model of narrow-band-gap semiconductor in ionisation by collision regime. Sov. Phys. Semiconduct. 23(9), 1707–1709 (in Russian), (1989)
Blekhman, I.I.: Synchronisation in Nature and Technology. Nauka, Moscow (1981). Translated into English: ASME Press, New York (1988)
Blekhman, I.I.: Synchronisation of Dynamic Systems. Nauka, Moscow, (in Russian) (1971)
Bloomfield, P.: Fourier Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction. Wiley, New York (1976)
Boccaletti, S., Kurths, S., Osipov, G., Valladares, D., Zhou, C.: The synchronization of chaotic systems. Phys. Rep. 366, 1–52 (2002)
Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M.: Time Series Analysis. Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day, San Francisco (1970)
Brockwell, P.J., Davis, R.A.: Time Series: Theory and Methods. Springer, Berlin (1987)
Brown, R., Rulkov, N.F., Tracy, E.R.: Modeling and synchronizing chaotic systems from experimental data. Phys. Lett. A. 194, 71–76 (1994)
Cecen, A.A., Erkal, C.: Distinguishing between stochastic and deterministic behavior in high frequency foreign exchange rate returns: Can non-linear dynamics help forecasting? Int. J. Forecasting. 12, 465–473 (1996)
Čenis, A., Lasiene, G., Pyragas, K.: Estimation of interrelation between chaotic observable. Phys. D. 52, 332–337 (1991)
Clemens, J.C.: Whole Earth telescope observations of the white dwarf star PG 1159-035 (data set E). In: Gerschenfeld, N.A., Weigend, A.S. (eds.) Time Series Prediction: Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past. SFI Studies in the Science of Complexity, Proc. V. XV, pp. 139–150. Addison-Wesley, New York (1993)
Eckmann, J.-P., Kamphorst, S.O., Ruelle, D.: Recurrence plots of dynamical systems. Europhys. Lett. 5, 973–977 (1987)
Facchini, A., Kantz, H., Tiezzi, E.: Recurrence plot analysis of nonstationary data: the understanding of curved patterns. Phys. Rev. E. 72, 021915 (2005)
Fraser, A.M., Swinney, H.L.: Independent coordinates for strange attractors from mutual information. Phys. Rev. A. 33, 1131–1140 (1986)
Frik, P., Sokolov, D.: Wavelets in astrophysics and geophysics. Computerra, vol. 8. Available at http://offline.computerra.ru/1998/236/1125/ (in Russian) (1998)
Gabor, D.: Theory of communication. J. Inst. Elect. Eng. (London). 93, 429–459 (1946)
Gribkov, D., Gribkova, V.: Learning dynamics from nonstationary time series: analysis of electroencephalograms. Phys. Rev. E. 61, 6538–6545 (2000)
Groth, A.: Visualization of coupling in time series by order recurrence plots. Phys. Rev. E. 72, 046220 (2005)
Hamming, R.W.: Digital Filters, 2nd edn. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ (1983)
Herman, S.L.: Delmar’s Standard Textbook of Electricity. Delmar Publishers, San Francisco (2008)
Huang, N.E., Shen, Z., Long, S.R.: The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A. 454, 903–995 (1998)
Hubner, U., Weiss, C.-O., Abraham, N.B., Tang, D.: Lorenz-like chaos in \(\mathit{NH}_{3} - \mathit{FIR}\) lasers (data set A). In: Gerschenfeld, N.A., Weigend, A.S. (eds.) Time Series Prediction: Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past. SFI Studies in the Science of Complexity, Proc. V. XV, pp. 73–104. Addison-Wesley, New York (1993)
Jenkins, G., Watts, D.: Spectral Analysis and Its Applications. Holden-Day, New York (1968)
Judd, K., Mees, A.I. On selecting models for nonlinear time series. Phys. D. 82, 426–444 (1995)
Kalashnikov, S.G.: Electricity. Nauka, Moscow, (in Russian) (1970)
Keller, C.F.: Climate, modeling, and predictability. Phys. D. 133, 296–308 (1999)
Kendall, M.G., Stuart, A.: The Advanced Theory of Statistics, vols. 2 and 3. Charles Griffin, London (1979)
Kennel, M.B.: Statistical test for dynamical nonstationarity in observed time-series data. Phys. Rev. E. 56, 316–321 (1997)
Koronovskii, A.A., Hramov, A.E.: Continuous Wavelet Analysis in Application to Nonlinear Dynamics Problems. College, Saratov (2003)
Koronovskii, N.V., Abramov, V.A.: Earthquakes: causes, consequences, forecast. Soros Educ. J. 12, 71–78, (in Russian) (1998)
Kugiumtzis, D., Lingjaerde, O.C., Christophersen, N.: Regularized local linear prediction of chaotic time series. Phys. D. 112, 344–360 (1998)
Lachaux, J.P., Rodriguez, E., Le Van Quyen, M., et al.: Studying single-trials of phase synchronous activity in the brain. Int. J. Bif. Chaos. 10, 2429–2455 (2000)
Lean, J., Rottman, G., Harder, J., Kopp, G.: Source contributions to new understanding of global change and solar variability. Solar Phys. 230, 27–53 (2005)
Lequarre, J.Y.: Foreign currency dealing: a brief introduction (data set C). In: Gerschenfeld, N.A., Weigend, A.S. (eds.) Time Series Prediction: Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past. SFI Studies in the Science of Complexity, Proc. V. XV, pp. 131–137. Addison-Wesley, New York (1993)
Letellier, C., Le Sceller, L., Gouesbet, G., et al.: Recovering deterministic behavior from experimental time series in mixing reactor. AIChE J. 43(9), 2194–2202 (1997)
Letellier, C., Macquet, J., Le Sceller, L., et al. On the non-equivalence of observables in phase space reconstructions from recorded time series. J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 31, 7913–7927 (1998)
Ljung, L.: System Identification. Theory for the User. Prentice-Hall, New York (1991)
Makarenko, N.G.: Embedology and neuro-prediction. Procs. V All-Russian Conf. “Neuroinformatics-2003”. Part 1, pp. 86–148, Moscow, (in Russian) (2003)
Maraun, D., Kurths, J.: Cross wavelet analysis: significance testing and pitfalls. Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. 11, 505–514 (2004)
Marwan, N., Kurths, J.: Nonlinear analysis of bivariate data with cross recurrence plots. Phys. Lett. A. 302, 299–307 (2002)
Marwan, N., Kurths, J.: Cross recurrence plots and their applications. In: Benton, C.V. (ed.) Mathematical Physics Research at the Cutting Edge, pp. 101–139. Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge (2004)
Marwan, N., Romano, M.C., Thiel, M., Kurths, J.: Recurrence plots for the analysis of complex systems. Phys. Rep. 438, 237–329 (2007)
Marwan, N.: Encounters with Neighbours – Current Developments of Concepts Based on Recurrence Plots and Their Applications. Ph.D. Thesis. University of Potsdam, Potsdam (2003)
Misiti, R. et al. Wavelet Toolbox. User Guide for MatLab. The second edition (2000)
Monin, A.S., Piterbarg, L.I.: About predictability of weather and climate. In: Kravtsov, Yu.A. (ed.) Limits of Predictability, pp. 12–39. TsentrCom, Moscow, (in Russian) (1997)
Mudrov, V.L., Kushko, V.L.: Methods of Measurement Processing. Sov. Radio, Moscow, (in Russian) (1976)
Pecora, L.M., Carroll, T.L., Heagy, J.F.: Statistics for mathematical properties of maps between time series embeddings. Phys. Rev. E. 52, 3420–3439 (1995)
Pikovsky, A.S., Rosenblum, M.G., Kurths, J.: Synchronisation. A Universal Concept in Nonlinear Sciences. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2001)
Press, W.H., Flannery, B.P., Teukolsky, S.A., Vetterling, W.T.: Numerical Recipes in C. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1988)
Priestley, M.B.: Spectral Analysis and Time Series. Academic, London (1989)
Pugachev, V.S.: Theory of Probabilities and Mathematical Statistics. Nauka, Moscow, (in Russian) (1979)
Pugachev, V.S.: Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers. Pergamon Press, Oxford (1984)
Rabiner, L.R., Gold, B.: Theory and Applications of Digital Signal Processing. Prentice Hall, New York (1975)
Rieke, C., Sternickel, K., Andrzejak, R.G., Elger, C.E., David, P., Lehnertz, K.: Measuring nonstationarity by analyzing the loss of recurrence in dynamical systems. Phys. Rev. Lett. 88, 244102 (2002)
Rigney, D.R., Goldberger, A.L., Ocasio, W.C., et al.: Multi-channel physiological data: Description and analysis (data set B). In: Gerschenfeld, N.A., Weigend, A.S. (eds.) Time Series Prediction: Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past. SFI Studies in the Science of Complexity, Proc. V. XV, pp. 105–129. Addison-Wesley, New York (1993)
Rulkov, N.F., Sushchik, M.M., Tsimring, L.S., Abarbanel, H.D.I.: Generalized synchronization of chaos in directionally coupled chaotic systems. Phys. Rev. E. 51, 980–994 (1995)
Sadovsky, M.A., Pisarenko, V.F.: About time series forecast. In: Kravtsov, Yu.A. (ed.) Limits of Predictability, pp. 158–169. TsentrCom, Moscow (in Russian) (1997)
Sato, M., Hansen, J.E., McCormick, M.P., Pollack, J.B.: Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850–1990. J. Geophys. Res. 98, 22987–22994 (1993)
Schiff, S.J., So, P., Chang, T., Burke, R.E., Sauer, T.: Detecting dynamical interdependence and generalized synchrony through mutual prediction in a neural ensemble. Phys. Rev. E. 54, 6708–6724 (1996)
Schreiber, T.: Detecting and analyzing nonstationarity in a time series using nonlinear cross predictions. Phys. Rev. Lett. 78, 843–846 (1997)
Schreiber, T.: Interdisciplinary application of nonlinear time series methods. Phys. Rep. 308, 3082–3145 (1999)
Sena, L.A.: Units of Physical Quantities and Their Dimensions. Nauka, Moscow (1977). Translated into English: Mir Publ., Moscow (1982)
Soofi, A.S., Cao, L. (eds.): Modeling and Forecasting Financial Data: Techniques of Nonlinear Dynamics. Kluwer, Dordrecht (2002)
Timmer, J., Lauk, M., Pfleger, W., Deuschl, G.: Cross-spectral analysis of physiological tremor and muscle activity. I. Theory and application to unsynchronized elecromyogram. Biol. Cybern. 78, 349–357 (1998)
Torrence, C., Compo, G. A prectical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 79, 61–78 (1998)
Trubetskov, D.I.: Oscillations and Waves for Humanitarians. College, Saratov, (in Russian) (1997)
von Mises, R.: Mathematical Theory of Probability and Statistics. Academic Press, New York (1964)
Yule, G.U.: On a method of investigating periodicities in disturbed series, with special reference to Wolfer’s sunspot numbers. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. London A. 226, 267–298 (1927)
Zbilut, J.P., Giuliani, A., Webber, C.L.: Detecting deterministic signals in exceptionally noisy environments using cross-recurrence quantification. Phys. Lett. A. 246, 122–128 (1998)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Bezruchko, B.P., Smirnov, D.A. (2010). Data Series as a Source for Modelling. In: Extracting Knowledge From Time Series. Springer Series in Synergetics. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-12601-7_6
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-12601-7_6
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-12600-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-12601-7
eBook Packages: Physics and AstronomyPhysics and Astronomy (R0)