Skip to main content

How to Improve Dynamic Decision Making? Practice and Promise

  • Chapter
Complex Decision Making

Part of the book series: Understanding Complex Systems ((UCS))

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Bakken, B. E. (1993). Learning and transfer of understanding in dynamic decision environments. Unpublished doctoral dissertation. MIT, Boston.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bakken, B., Gould, J. & Kim, D. (1994). Experimentation in learning organizations: A management flight simulator approach. In J. Morecroft & J. Sterman (Eds.) Modeling for learning organizations (pp. 243–266). Portland, Or.: Productivity Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Beckmann, J. F. & Guthke, J. (1995). Complex problem solving, intelligence, and learning ability. In P. Frensch & J. Funke (Eds.), Complex problem solving: The European perspective (pp. 177–200). NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Benbasat, I. & Dexter, A. S. (1985). An experimental evaluation of graphical and color-enhanced information presentation Management Science, 31, 1348–1364.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berry, D. C. & Broadbent, D. E. (1987). The combination of explicit and implicit learning processes in task control. Psychological Research, 49, 7–16.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berry, D. C. & Broadbent, D. E. (1988). Interactive tasks and the implicit-explicit distinction. British Journal of Psychology, 79, 251–271.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berry, D. C. (1991). The role of action in implicit learning. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 43A, 8–906.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bjorkman, M. (1972). Feed forward and feedback as determinants of knowledge and policy: Notes on neglected issue. Scandinavian J. Psychology, 13, 152–158.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brehmer, B. & Allard, R. (1991). Dynamic decision making: The effects of task complexity and feedback delay. In J. Rasmussen, B. Brehmer & J. Leplat (Eds.) Distributed decision making: Cognitive models for cooperative work (pp. 319–334). New York: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brehmer, B. (1990). Strategies in real-time dynamic decision making. In R. M. Hogarth (Ed.), Insights in decision making (pp. 262–279). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brehmer, B. (1995). Feedback delays in complex dynamic decision tasks. In P. Frensch & J. Funke (Eds.) Complex problem solving: The European perspective (pp. 103–130). NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Breuer, K. & Kummer, R. (1990). Cognitive effects from process learning with computer-based simulations. Computers in Human Behavior, 6, 69–81.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Briggs, P. (1990). Do they know what they are doing? An evaluation of word-processor user’s implicit and explicit task-relevant knowledge, and its role in self-directed learning. International Journal of Man-Machine Studies, 32, 385–298.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Broadbent, B. & Aston, B. (1978). Human control of a simulated economic system. Ergonomics, 21, 1035–1043.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carey, J., Galletta, D., Kim, J., Te’eni, D., Wildemuth, B., & Zhang, P. (2004). The role of human-computer interaction in management information systems curricula: A call to action. Communications of the Association for Information Systems, 13, 357–379.

    Google Scholar 

  • Collins, A. (1991). Cognitive apprenticeship and instructional technology. In L. Idol & B. F. Jones (Eds.) Educational values and cognitive instruction: Implication for reform (pp. 11–139). New York: Elsevier Science.

    Google Scholar 

  • Conant, R. & W. Ashby. (1970). Every good regulator of a system must be a model of the system. International Journal of System Science, 1, 89–97.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cox, R. J. (1992). Exploratory learning from computer-based systems. In S. Dijkstra, H. P. M. Krammer, & J. J. G. van Merrienboer (Eds.) Instructional models in computer-based learning environments (pp. 405–419). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag.

    Google Scholar 

  • Crookall, D., Martin, A., Saunders, D., & Coote, A. (1987). Human and computer involvement in simulation. Simulation & Games: An International Journal of Theory, Design, and Research, 17(3), 345–375.

    Google Scholar 

  • Davidsen, P. I. & Spector, J. M. (1997). Cognitive complexity in system dynamics based learning environments. International system dynamics conference. Istanbul, Turkey: Bogacizi University Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Davidsen, P. I. (1996). Educational features of the system dynamics approach to modelling and simulation. Journal of Structural Learning, 12(4), 269–290.

    Google Scholar 

  • Davidsen, P. I. (2000). Issues in the design and use of system-dynamics-based interactive learning environments. Simulation & Gaming, 31(2), 170–177.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davis, F. D. & Kottermann, J . E. (1994). User perceptions of decision support effectiveness: Two productions planning experiment. Decision Sciences, 25(1), 57–78.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davis, F. D. & Kottermann, J . E. (1994). Determinants of decision rule use in a production planning task. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 63, 145–159.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diehl, E. & Sterman, J. D. (1995). Effects of feedback complexity on dynamic decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 62(2), 198–215.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dörner, D. & Pfeifer, E. (1992). Strategic thinking, strategic errors, stress, and intelligence. Sprache & Kognition,11, 75–90.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dörner, D. (1980). On the difficulties people have in dealing with complexity. Simulations and Games, 11, 8–106.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dörner, D., Kreuzig, H. W., Reither, F., & Staudel, T. (Eds.). (1983). Lohhausen: On dealing with uncertainty and complexity. Bern, Switzerland: Hans Huber.

    Google Scholar 

  • Edwards, W. (1962). Dynamic decision theory and probabilistic information processing. Human Factors, 4, 59–73.

    Google Scholar 

  • Elsom-Cook, M. T. (1993). Environment design and teaching intervention. In D. M. Town, T. de Jong, & H. Spada. (Eds.) Simulation-based experiential learning (pp. 165–176). Berlin: Springer-Verlag.

    Google Scholar 

  • Forrester, J. W. (1961). Industrial dynamics. Cambridge, MA: Productivity Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Funke, J. (1995). Experimental Research on Complex Problem Solving. In P. Frensch & J. Funke (Eds.) Complex problem solving: The European perspective (pp. 3–25). NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Funke, J. & Muller, H. (1988). Active control and prediction as determinants of system identification and system control. Sprache & Kognition, 7, 176–186.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gagné, R. M. (1985). The conditions of learning (4th edition). New York: Holt, Rinehart, & Winston.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gibson, F. P. (2000). Feedback delays: How can decision makers learn not to buy a new car every time the garage is empty? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 83, 141–166.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gonzalez, M., Machuca, J., & Castillo, J. (2000). A transparent-box multifunctional simulator of competing companies. Simulation & Gaming, 31(2), 240–256.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goodyear, P. (1992). The provision of tutorial support for learning with computer-based simulations. In E. Corte, M. Lin, H. Mandal, & L. Verschaffel. (Eds.) Computer-based learning environments and problem solving (pp. 391–409). Berlin: Springer-Verlag.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gröbler, A, Maier, F. H., & Milling, P. M. (2000). Enhancing learning capabilities by providing transparency in transparency. Simulation & Gaming, 31(2), 257–278.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gröbler, A. (1998). Structural transparency as an element of business simulators. Paper presented at 16th International System Dynamics Conference, Quebec City, Canada.

    Google Scholar 

  • Grubler H., Renkal A., Mandal H., & Reiter, W. (1993). Exploration strategies in an economics simulation game. In D. M. Town, T. de Jong, & H. Spada. (Eds.) Simulation-based experiential learning (pp. 225–233). Berlin: Springer-Verlag.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hayes, N. A. & Broadbent, D. E. (1988). Two modes of learning for interactive tasks. Cognition, 28, 249–276.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hogarth, R. M. (1981). Beyond discrete biases: Functional and dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics. Psychological Bulletin, 9(2), 197–217.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Homer, J. B., Hirsch, G.B., 2006. System dynamics modeling for public health: Background and opportunities. American Journal of Public Health, 96 (3), 452–458.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hsiao, N. (1999). In search of theories of dynamic decision making: A literature review. Paper presented at the International System Dynamics Conference, Wellington, New Zealand.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hsiao, N. (2000). Exploration of outcome feedback for dynamic decision making. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, State University of New York at Albany, Albany.

    Google Scholar 

  • Huber, G. P. (1984). The nature and design of post-industrial organization. Management Science, 30, 928–951.

    Google Scholar 

  • Huber, O. (1995). Complex problem solving as multistage decision making. In P. Frensch & J. Funke (Eds.) Complex problem solving: The European perspective (pp. 151–173). NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Issacs, W. & Senge, P. (1994). Overcoming limits to learning in computer-based learning environments. In J. Morecroft and J. Sterman (Eds.) Modeling for learning organizations (pp. 267–287). Portland, Or.: Productivity Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jansson, A. (1995). Strategies in Dynamic Decision making: Does Teaching Heuristic Strategies By Instructors Affect Performance? In J. Caverni, M. Bar-Hillel, F.Barron, & H. Jungermann (Eds.) Contributions to decision making-I (pp. 213–253). Amsterdam: Elsevier.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kerstholt, J. H. (1996). The effect of information costs on strategy selection in dynamic tasks. Acta Psychologica, 94, 273–290.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kerstholt, J. H. & Raaijmakers, J. G. W. (1997). Decision making in dynamic task environments. In R. Ranyard, R. W. Crozier & O. Svenson (Eds.) Decision making: Cognitive models and explanations (pp. 205–217). New York, NY: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keys, J. B. & Wolfe, J. (1990). The role of management games and simulations in education and research. Journal of Management, 16, 307–336.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kleinmuntz, D. (1985). Cognitive heuristics and feedback in a dynamic decision environment. \underline{Management Science}, 31, 680–701.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kleinmuntz, D. & Thomas, J. (1987). The value of action and inference in dynamic decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 39, 341–364.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kriz, W. C., 2003. Creating effective learning environments and learning organizations through gaming simulation design. Simulation & Gaming, 34(4), 495–511.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lane, D. C. (1995). On a resurgence of management simulations and games. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 46, 604–625.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Langley, P. A. & Morecroft, J. D. W. (1995). Learning from microworlds environments: A summary of the research issues. In G. P. Richardson & J. D. Sterman (Eds.) System Dynamics’ 96. Cambridge, MA: System Dynamics Society.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ledrman, L. C. (1992). Debriefing: towards a systematic assessment of theory and practice. Simulations & Gaming, 23(2), 145–160.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Machuca, J. A. D., Ruiz, J. C., Domingo, M. A., & Gonzalez, M. M. (1998). 10 years of work on transparent-box business simulation. Paper presented at 16th International System Dynamics Conference, Quebec City, Canada.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mackinnon, A. J. & A.J. Wearing. (1980). Complexity and decision making. Behavioral Science, 25(4), 285–292.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maxwell, T. A. (1995). Decisions: Cognitive styles, mental models, and task performance. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, State University of New York at Albany, Albany.

    Google Scholar 

  • Moxnes, E. (2000). Not only the tragedy of the commons: Misperceptions of feedback and policies for sustainable development. System Dynamics Review, 16(4): 325–348.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moxnes, E. (1998). Not only the tragedy of the commons: Misperceptions of bioeconomics. Management Science, 44, 1234–1248.

    Google Scholar 

  • Njoo, M. & de Jong, T. (1993). Supporting exploratory learning by offering structured overviews of hypotheses. In D. M. Town, T. de Jong, & H. Spada. (Eds.) Simulation-based experiential learning (pp. 207–223). Berlin: Springer-Verlag.

    Google Scholar 

  • Paich, M & J. D. Sterman. (1993). Boom, bust, and failures to learn in experimental markets. Management Science, 39, 1439–1458.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Putz-Osterloh, W. Bott, B., & Koster, K. (1990). Modes of learning in problem solving – Are they transferable to tutorial systems. Computers in Human Behaviors, 6, 83–96.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qudrat-Ullah, H. 2005a. ‘‘Improving Dynamic Decision Making through HCI Design Principles’’, In C. Ghaoui, (Ed.), The Encyclopedia of Human Computer Interaction, USA: Information Science Publishing, pp. 311–316.

    Google Scholar 

  • Qudrat-Ullah, H., 2005b. MDESRAP: a model for understanding the dynamics of electricity supply, resources, and pollution. International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 23(1), 1–14.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qudrat-Ullah, H. (2002). Decision making and learning in complex dynamic environments. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, National University of Singapore, Singapore.

    Google Scholar 

  • Qudrat-Ullah, H. (2001). Improving Decision Making and Learning in Dynamic Task: An Experimental Investigation. Paper presented at Annual Faculty Research Conference, NUS Business School, National University of Singapore, Singapore.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rapoport, A. (1975). Research paradigms for studying dynamic decision behavior. In D. Wendt & C. A. J. Vlek (Eds.) Utility, probability, and human decision making (pp. 349–375). Dordrecht, Holland: Reidel.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sanderson, P. M. (1989). Verbalizable knowledge and skilled task performance: Association, dissociation, and mental Model. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning Memory and Cognition, 15, 729–739.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sengupta, K & Abdel-Hamid, T. (1993). Alternative concepts of feedback in dynamic decision environments: An experimental investigation. Management Science, 39, 411–428.

    Google Scholar 

  • Spector, J. M. (2000). System dynamics and interactive learning environments: Lessons learned and implications for the future. Simulation & Gaming, 31(4), 528–535.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stanley, W. B., R. C. Mathews, R. R. Buss, & S. Kolter-Cope. (1989). Insight without awareness: On the interaction of verbalization, instruction and practice in a simulated process control task. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 41A(3), 553–577.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stienwachs, B. (1992). How to facilitate a debriefing. Simulation & Gaming, 23(2), 186–195.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sterman, J. D. (1989a). Modeling managerial behavior: Misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision making experiment. Management Science, 35, 321–339.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sterman, J. D. (1989b). Misperceptions of feedback in dynamic decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 43, 301–335.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sterman, J. D. (1994). Learning in and around complex systems. System Dynamics Review, 10 (2–3), 291–323.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sternberg, R. J. (1995). Expertise in complex problem solving: A comparison of alternative conceptions. In P. Frensch & J. Funke (Eds.) Complex problem solving: The European perspective (pp. 3–25). NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Trees, W. S., Doyle, J. K., & Radzicki, M. J. (1996). Using cognitive styles typology to explain differences in dynamic decision making in a computer simulation game environment. Paper presented at the International System Dynamics Conference.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wolf, J. (1990). The evaluation of computer-based business games. In J. Gentry (Ed.) Guide to business gaming and experiential learning (pp. 279–300). London: Nichols.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang, J. (1997). Give me the right goals, I will be a good dynamic decision maker. International System Dynamics Conference (pp. 709–712). Istanbul, Turkey: Bogacizi University Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Young, S. H., Chen, C. P., Wang, S. & Chen, C. H. (1997). An experiment to study the relationship between decision scope and uncontrollable positive feedback loops. International System Dynamics Conference (pp. 15–20). Istanbul, Turkey: Bogacizi University Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2008 springer

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Karakul, M., Qudrat-Ullah, H. (2008). How to Improve Dynamic Decision Making? Practice and Promise. In: Qudrat-Ullah, H., Spector, J., Davidsen, P. (eds) Complex Decision Making. Understanding Complex Systems. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-73665-3_1

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics