Skip to main content

Estimation and Analysis of an Extended AD–AS Model

  • Chapter
Topics in Applied Macrodynamic Theory

Part of the book series: Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance ((DMEF,volume 10))

The present chapter intends to provide empirical evidence for a crossover type of interaction of wage and price inflation rates, or more briefly for the wage-price spiral, and additionally formulates and estimates within a Keynesian Disequilibrium framework a macroeconomic model for the U.S. economy. It presents the feedback structures of this (semi-) reduced form of a macromodel and its stability implications, first on a general level and then on the level of the sign and size restrictions obtained from empirical estimates of the five laws of motion of the dynamics. These estimates, undertaken from the U.S. economy for quarterly data 1965.1–2001.1 also allow us to discuss asymptotic stability for the estimated parameter sizes and to determine stability boundaries.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Asada, T., Chiarella, C., Flaschel, P. and Franke, R. (2003). Open Economy Macrodynamics. An Integrated Disequilibrium Approach. Heidelberg: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Asada, T., Chen, P., Chiarella, C. and Flaschel, P. (2006). Keynesian dynamics and the wage-price spiral. A baseline disequilibrium approach. Journal of Macroeconomics, 28, 90–130.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barro, R. (1994). The aggregate supply/aggregate demand model. Eastern Economic Journal, 20, 1–6.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baxter, M. and King, R. (1995a). Measuring business cycles: Approximate band-pass filters for economic time series. NBER working paper, No. 5022.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baxter, M. and King, R. (1995b). Measuring business cycles: Approximate band-pass filters for economic time series. Eastern Economic Journal, 81, 575–593.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blanchard, O. and Katz, L. (1999). Wage dynamics. Reconciling theory and evidence. American Economic Review. Papers and Proceedings, 89, 69–74.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen, P. (2003). Weak Exogeneity in Simultaneous Equations Systems. University of Bielefeld: Discussion Paper No. 502.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen, P. and Flaschel, P. (2005). Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage-Price Spiral: Identifying Downward Rigidities. Computational Economics, 25, 115–142, Springer.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen, P. and Flaschel, P. (2006). Measuring the interaction of Wage and Price Phillips Curves for the US economy. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 10(4), 10–35.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen, P., Chiarella, C., Flaschel, P. and Hung, H. (2004). Keynesian disequilibrium dynamics. Estimated convergence, roads to instability and the emergence of complex business fluctuations. UTS Sydney: School of Finance and Economics.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen, P., Chiarella, C., Flaschel, P. and Semmler, W. (2006). Keynesian macrodynamics and the Phillips curve. An estimated baseline macro-model for the U.S. economy. In: C. Chiarella, P. Flaschel, R. Franke and W. Semmler (eds.), Quantitative and Empirical Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamic Macromodels. Contributions to Economic Analysis. Amsterdam: Elsevier.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chiarella, C. and Flaschel, P. (1996). Real and monetary cycles in models of Keynes-Wicksell type. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 30, 327–351.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiarella, C. and Flaschel, P. (2000). The Dynamics of Keynesian Monetary Growth: Macro Foundations. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chiarella, C., Flaschel, P., Groh, G. and Semmler, W. (2000). Disequilibrium, Growth and Labor Market Dynamics. Macro Perspectives. Berlin: Springer Verlag.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chiarella, C., Flaschel, P. and Franke, R. (2005). Foundations for a Disequilibrium Theory of the Business Cycle. Qualitative Analysis and Quantitative Assessment. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Davidson, R. and MacKinnon, J. (1993). Estimation and Inference in Econometrics. New York: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Eller, J.W. and Gordon, R.J. (2003). Nesting the New Keynesian Phillips Curve within the Mainstream Model of U.S. Inflation Dynamics. Paper presented at the CEPR Conference: The Phillips curve revisited. Berlin: June 2003.

    Google Scholar 

  • Engle, R.F., Hendry, D.F. and Richard, A. (1983). Exogeneity. Econometrica, 51, 227–304.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fair, R. (2000). Testing the NAIRU model for the United States. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 82, 64–71.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Filardo, A. (1998). New Evidence on the output cost of fighting inflation. Economic Review. Federal Bank of Kansas City, 33–61.

    Google Scholar 

  • Flaschel, P. and Franke, R. (2006). Investment and employment in Postwar industrialized economies. Bielefeld University: Working paper.

    Google Scholar 

  • Flaschel, P. and Groh, G. (1995). The classical growth cycle: Reformulation, simulation and some facts. Economic Notes, 24, 293–326.

    Google Scholar 

  • Flaschel, P. and Krolzig, H.-M. (2006). Wage and price Phillips curves. An empirical analysis of destabilizing wage-price spirals. In: C. Chiarella, P. Flaschel, R. Franke and W. Semmler (eds.), Quantitative and Empirical Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamic Macromodels. Contributions to Economic Analysis. Amsterdam: Elsevier.

    Google Scholar 

  • Flaschel, P., Kauermann, G. and Semmler, W. (2007). Testing wage and price Phillips curves for the United States. Metroeconomica, 58(4), 550–581.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flaschel, P., Franke, R. and Proaño, C. (2008). On the (In)Determinacy of New Keynesian Models with Staggered Wages and Prices. Bielefeld University, mimeo.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fuhrer, J.C. and Rudebusch, G.D. (2004). Estimating the Euler equation for output. Journal of Monetary Economics, 51, 1133–1153.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Galí, J. (2000). The return of the Phillips curve and other recent developments in business cycle theory. Spanish Economic Review, 2, 1–10.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Galí, J. (2008). Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Business Cycle. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Goodwin, R.M. (1967). A Growth Cycle. In: C.H. Feinstein (ed.), Socialism, Capitalism and Economic Growth. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Groth, C. (1992). Some unfamiliar dynamics of a familiar macromodel. Journal of Economics, 58, 293–305.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoogenveen, V.C. and Kuipers, S.K. (2000). The long-run effects of low inflation rates. Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 53, 267–286.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hsiao, C. (1997). Cointegration and dynamic simultaneous equations model. Econometrica, 65, 647–670.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keynes, J.M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. New York: Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Laxton, D., Rose, D. and Tambakis, D. (2000). The U.S. Phillips-curve: The case for asymmetry. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 23, 1459–1485.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mankiw, G. (2001). The inexorable and mysterious tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. Economic Journal, 111, 45–61.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Okun, A.M. (1970). The Political Economy of Prosperity. Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rose, H. (1967). On the non-linear theory of the employment cycle. Review of Economic Studies, 34, 153–173.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rose, H. (1990). Macroeconomic Dynamics. A Marshallian Synthesis. Cambridge, MA: Basil Blackwell.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rudebusch, G.D. and Svensson, L.E.O. (1999). Policy rules for inflation targeting. In: J.B. Talor (ed.), Monetary Policy Rules. Chicago: Chicago University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Spanos, A. (1990). The simultaneous equations model revisited: statistical adequacy and identification. Journal of Econometrics, 44, 87–105.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tobin, J. (1975). Keynesian models of recession and depression. American Economic Review, 65, 195–202.

    Google Scholar 

  • Walsh, C.E. (2003). Monetary Theory and Policy. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodford, M. (2003). Interest and Prices. Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zarnowitz, V. (1999). Theory and History Behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the onset of a Golden Age? NBER Working paper 7010, http://www.nber.org/papers/w7010.

Download references

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

(2008). Estimation and Analysis of an Extended AD–AS Model. In: Topics in Applied Macrodynamic Theory. Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, vol 10. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-72542-8_4

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics