Abstract
This section examines past (1950–2000) and projected (2000–2050) population trends and assesses the implications of the latter for dependency ratio developments. As explained earlier, for the purposes of the historical and future analysis in this book ECFIN’s ageing model is split into five country blocks, the EU, the US, Japan and with the rest of the world broken into two distinct groups of countries, namely “fast ageing” and “slow ageing”. This classification for the rest of the world is similar to the approach adopted by Turner et al (1998) and is based on the dependency ratio calculations underpinning the UN’s global population projections. In effect those countries which are predicted to experience an increase in their overall dependency ratio over the coming decades are classified as fast ageing, with this latter group made up of OECD member countries (other than EU15, US, Japan, Mexico and Turkey) plus all of the Eastern European countries, Russia, China, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Thailand. The slow ageing group simply includes all the remaining countries of the world not classified elsewhere13
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While the slow ageing countries are formed as a type of residual group, they nevertheless share additional similarities other than simply population dynamics, with the large majority of these countries being World Bank designated developing countries with relatively low income per capita levels. This group is therefore more homogeneous than that of the fast ageing group, which while sharing similar population trends over the coming decades are very different in terms of income per capita. The fast ageing group includes a number of high income OECD member countries as well as low/middle income countries such as the Eastern European countries, Russia and China.
The UN’s “2002 Revision” was released in February 2003. In overall terms, the UN is now projecting a total world population of 8.9 billion compared with 9.3 billion in the “2000 Revision”. According to the UN, “about half of the 0.4 billion difference in these projections results from an increase in the number of projected deaths, the majority stemming from higher projected levels of HIV prevalance. The other half of the difference reflects a reduction in the projected births, primarily as a result of lower expected future fertility levels.”
With regard to migration flows, reliable data in this area is very difficult to get and what is available tends only to refer to the developed world.
Excluding the impact of the forthcoming enlargement.
It is evident that a large economic dependency ratio which is driven by a high youth ratio could be regarded as a potentially positive development (i.e. a demographic “take-off” candidate). However, as the experience of so many countries in recent decades has proved, economic policies are manifestly more important than demographics in underpinning the economic performance of countries. This point underlines the fact that nothing is inevitable or pre-determined for countries, with the ability to simultaneously achieve demographic and economic take-off being dependent on the policy framework which is set in place.
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© 2004 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
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Mc Morrow, K., Roeger, W. (2004). Global Demographic Trends and Forecasts 1950–2050. In: Welfens, P.J.J. (eds) The Economic and Financial Market Consequences of Global Ageing. European and Transatlantic Studies. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-24821-7_1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-24821-7_1
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