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Die Effektivität von Counter-Terrorismus am Beispiel des Bundestrojaners: Möglichkeiten kontrafaktischer Analyse

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Terrorismusforschung in Deutschland

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Zusammenfassung

Die Evaluierung der Effektivität von Counter-Terrorismus (CT) ist eine methodische und theoretische Herausforderung. Traditionelle Ansätze wie Zeitreihen analysieren Ereignisse aus der Vergangenheit, können aber keine Aussagen über die Wirksamkeit von Gegenmaßnahmen über einen längeren Zeitraum in der Zukunft geben. In diesem Beitrag wird argumentiert, dass kontrafaktische Analyse einen Mehrwert bei der Antizipierung von Substitutions-und Innovationseffekten bietet und damit die Konsequenzen terroristischen Verhaltens besser abbildet. Anhand des Beispiels des Bundestrojaners als CT-Instrument wird gezeigt, dass diese Maßnahme terroristisches Verhalten zwar kurzfristig behindert, terroristische Akteure längerfristig aber Mittel und Wege finden werden, um den Bundestrojaner zu umgehen. Die Überwachung terroristischer Aktivitäten wird damit erschwert und nicht erleichtert.

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  1. Franz Eder
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Alexander Spencer Alexander Kocks Kai Harbrich

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Eder, F. (2011). Die Effektivität von Counter-Terrorismus am Beispiel des Bundestrojaners: Möglichkeiten kontrafaktischer Analyse. In: Spencer, A., Kocks, A., Harbrich, K. (eds) Terrorismusforschung in Deutschland. VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-93040-4_11

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