Abstract
The work is dedicated to the mathematical modeling of inter-city influenza spread in Russian Federation. The authors combine the local SEIR model of the influenza outbreak in an urban environment and the model of inter-city virus spread via migration flows, calibrating the resulting multicomponent model to long-term data on weekly acute respiratory infection incidence in 41 Russian cities. The aims of the research are: (a) to compare the modeling output with the observed picture of the virus spread and to assess its accuracy; (b) to assess the influence of the quality of transport data on the output; (c) to assess the applicability of the model for predicting influenza spread in Russia and to discuss the ways of changing the model to enhance its predictive ability.
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Acknowledgements
The authors thank Vladislav Karbovskii and Vladislav Shmatkov (ITMO University) for providing the transport flow matrices. This research is financially supported by The Russian Science Foundation (Agreement #14-21-00137).
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Leonenko, V.N., Novoselova, Y.K. (2018). Influence of External Factors on Inter-City Influenza Spread in Russia: A Modeling Approach. In: Mondaini, R. (eds) Trends in Biomathematics: Modeling, Optimization and Computational Problems. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91092-5_26
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91092-5_26
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