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Predicting Risk: Who Knew It Was Such a Risky Business?

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Abstract

If one glanced at the working paper on the Center for Evidence-Based Corrections website entitled “Development of the California Static Risk Assessment, CSRA,” the most likely reaction a reader might have is a yawn. He or she might think the project was pretty dry and uneventful. Not so. What began as a fast turnaround project, done in collaboration with our client, the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation, morphed into a saga that would try the patience of any researcher.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    http://sites.uci.edu/cebc/files/2013/06/Letter-to-OIG-5-25-11.pdf

  2. 2.

    Willie Horton, a felon serving a life sentence for murder, was released on a weekend furlough program from a Massachusetts prison in 1986. While on the furlough, he escaped and raped a woman. When Michael Dukakis, who was governor in 1986 and who supported the program, ran for president in 1988, his opponent used Willie Horton’s picture in a negative campaign ad. Although the ad itself didn’t cost the election, it damaged his run.

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  • Turner, S., Hess, J., & Jannetta, J. (2009). Development of the California static risk assessment instrument (CSRA). Working paper, Center for Evidence-Based Corrections, University of California, Irvine. http://ucicorrections.seweb.uci.edu/pubs#reports

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Correspondence to Susan Turner .

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Turner, S. (2015). Predicting Risk: Who Knew It Was Such a Risky Business?. In: Maltz, M., Rice, S. (eds) Envisioning Criminology. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-15868-6_22

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