Chapter

Managing Water Resources under Climate Uncertainty

Part of the series Springer Water pp 45-64

Date:

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability in the Citarum River Basin, Indonesia: The Use of Statistical Downscaling and Water Planning Tools

  • I. Putu SantikayasaAffiliated withWater Engineering and Management, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology (AIT)Department of Geophysics and Meteorology, Bogor Agricultural University Email author 
  • , Mukand S. BabelAffiliated withWater Engineering and Management, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology (AIT)
  • , Sangam ShresthaAffiliated withWater Engineering and Management, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology (AIT)

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Abstract

Climate change would significantly affect the water resources system globally as well as at basin level. Moreover, future changes in climate would affect water availability, run-off, and the flow of the river. This study evaluates the impact of possible future climate change scenarios on the hydrology of the catchment area of the Citarum River Basin, Indonesia. The water evaluation and planning (WEAP) tool was used for hydrological modelling in the study area. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to downscale the daily temperatures and precipitation in the four sub-catchments of the study area. The global climate variables for A2 and B2 scenarios obtained from Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) was used. After model calibration and testing of the downscaling procedure, the streamflow and evapotranspiration (ET) were projected for three future periods: short term (2010–2039), midterm (2040–2069), and long term (2070–2099). The impacts of climate change on the basin hydrology are assessed by comparing the present and future streamflow and the estimated ET. The temperature is projected to increase in the future. The results of the water balance study suggest increasing precipitation and run-off as well as potential ET losses over the sub-catchment in the study area.

Keywords

WEAP Statistical downscaling Climate change Water planning