Abstract
Landslides are complex natural systems with non-linear and time variant response to a given input rainfall rate. Although landslide response (e.g. rate of displacement) is normally assumed uniform along time for a constant input (e.g. rainfall rate), we show how the use of adaptive moving windows for parameter’s calibration may lead to a better prediction of the displacement rates. The model is based on the computation of the displacement rates at each time lapse (e.g. one day) as a convolution of a given response function times daily rainfall. The response function was deduced from physically based infiltration laws, being the values of their parameters optimized in order to minimize the error between the real observations and the modeled velocities. The model was then applied to a long-term landslide deformation time series at La Barmasse landslide (Valais, Switzerland). Model performance was significantly improved using moving windows, showing the modeled rates of displacements close resemblance to real observations.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Abellan A, Michoud C, Demierre J, Jaboyedoff M (2012) Velocity calculation from daily rainfall data (Barmasse Landslide). Internal report
Abellan A, Moya J, Jaboyedoff M, Corominas J (2013) The Vallcebre landslide: predicting landslide velocities from rainfall data (in spanish). In: VIII Spanish symposium on landslides and slope stability. Palma de Mallorca, Spain, pp 1081–1092
Belle P, Aunay B, Bernardie S, Grandjean G, Ladouche Bernard, Mazué R, Join J-L (2013) The application of an innovative inverse model for understanding and predicting landslide movements (Salazie cirque landslides, Reunion Island) Landslides, 1–13
Bernardie S, Desramaut N, Azib M, Grandjean G, Malet J-P (2013) Prediction of changes in landslide rates induced by rainfall. In: Conference proceedings, Journées Aléas Gravitaires, Grenoble, France, 17–18 Sept 2013
Capparelli G, Versace P (2011) FLaIR and SUSHI: two mathematical models for early warning of landslides induced by rainfall. Landslides 8(1):67–79
Corominas J, Moya J, Ledesma A, Lloret A, Gili JA (2005) Prediction of ground displacements and velocities from groundwater level changes at the Vallcebre landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain). Landslides 2:83–96
Crosta GB, Frattini P, di Prisco C (2012) Approaches to rainfall-induced landslides forecasting. Invited lecture. In: Eberhardt E et al (eds) Landslides and engineered slopes, proceedings of 11th international and 2nd North American Symposium on landslides and engineered slopes, Banff, Canada, vol 1. CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group, London, pp 15–22
Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Stark CP (2008) The rainfall intensity–duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update. Landslides 5(1):3–17
Horton RE (1933) The role of infiltration in the hydrologic cycle. Trans Am Geophys Union 14:446–460
Iverson RM (2000) Landslide triggering by rain infiltration, Water Resour Res 36:1897-1910
Jaboyedoff M, Derron M-H, Jakubowski J, Oppikofer T, Pedrazzini A (2012) The 2006 Eiger rockslide, European Alps. In: Stead D, Clague JJ (eds) Landslides: types, mechanisms and modelling. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 282–296
Kostiakov AN (1932) On the dynamics of the coefficient of water-percolation in soils and on the necessity for studying it from a dynamic point of view for purposes of amelioration. In: Transactions Congress international society for soil science, 6th, Moscow, Part A, pp 17–21
Malet J-P, van Asch ThWJ, van Beek R, Maquaire O (2005) Forecasting the behaviour of complex landslides with a spatially distributed hydrological model. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 5:71–85. doi:10.5194/nhess-5-71-2005
Michoud C, Abellan A, Baillifard FJ, Demierre J, Derron MH, Jaboyedoff M, Jakubowski J, May-Delasoie F (2012) The structurally-controlled rockslide of Barmasse (Valais, Switzerland): structural geology, ground-based monitoring and displacement versus rainfall modeling. In: EGU general assembly conference abstracts, vol 14, p 2914
Michoud C, Baillifard F-J, Derron M-H, Jaboyedoff M (2013) Active terrestrial remote sensing techniques to monitor and model the rockslide of La Barmasse (Valais, Switzerland). Internal report
Acknowledgments
We acknowledge the Bagnes municipality (Valais, Switzerland) for sharing extensometric data of La Barmasse landslide. The present work has been supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (project numbers 138015 and 144040).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2015 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this paper
Cite this paper
Abellán, A. et al. (2015). Velocity Prediction on Time-Variant Landslides Using Moving Response Functions: Application to La Barmasse Rockslide (Valais, Switzerland). In: Lollino, G., et al. Engineering Geology for Society and Territory - Volume 2. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09057-3_49
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09057-3_49
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-09056-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-09057-3
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)