Abstract
This paper considers the effects of antecedent precipitation on landslide incidence in the United Kingdom. During 2012–2013 an extraordinary amount of precipitation resulted in an increase in the number of landslides reported in the UK, highlighting the importance of hydrogeological triggering. Slope failures (landslides on engineered slopes) in particular caused widespread disruption to transport services and damage to property. SW England and S Wales were most affected. Easy-to-use and accessible indicators of potential landslide activity are required for planning, preparedness and response and therefore analyses have been carried out to determine whether antecedent effective precipitation can be used as a proxy for landslide incidence. It is shown that for all landslides long-term antecedent precipitation provides an important preparatory factor and that relatively small landslides, such as slope failures, occur within a short period of time following subsequent heavy precipitation. Deep-seated, rotational landslides have a longer response time, as their pathway to instability follows a much more complex hydrogeological response. Statistical analyses of the British Geological Survey landslide database and of weather records have enabled determination of the probability of at least one landslide occurring based on antecedent precipitation signals for SW England and S Wales. This ongoing research is of part of a suite of analyses to provide tools to identify the likelihood of regional landslide occurrence in the United Kingdom.
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank BGS staff: H Reeves, V Banks, H Jordan, D Boon, P Hobbs, M Kirkham & G Jenkins; the Met Office. The authors publish with the permission of the Executive Director of the BGS (NERC).
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Pennington, C., Dijkstra, T., Lark, M., Dashwood, C., Harrison, A., Freeborough, K. (2014).
Antecedent Precipitation as a Potential Proxy for Landslide Incidence in South West United Kingdom.
In: Sassa, K., Canuti, P., Yin, Y. (eds) Landslide Science for a Safer Geoenvironment. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-04999-1_34
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-04999-1_34
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