Abstract
Weather forecasts will never be perfect and hence they will always contain some degree of uncertainty. In this chapter, we argue that uncertain weather forecasts expressed in a probabilistic format can provide more value to users in the energy sector than simple, apparently confident deterministic forecasts, even when the latter show a satisfactory level of accuracy. Knowledge of the user-specific loss function is required to achieve best value.
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Mailier, P., Peters, B., Kilminster, D., Stephens, M. (2014). In Search of the Best Possible Weather Forecast for the Energy Industry. In: Troccoli, A., Dubus, L., Haupt, S. (eds) Weather Matters for Energy. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-9221-4_16
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-9221-4_16
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