Advances in Growth Curve Models
Volume 46 of the series Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics pp 227240
Projection of Indian Population by Using Leslie Matrix with Changing Age Specific Mortality Rate, Age Specific Fertility Rate and Age Specific Marital Fertility Rate
 Prasanta PathakAffiliated withIndian Statistical Institute
 , Vivek VermaAffiliated withIndian Statistical Institute
Abstract
The importance of projection in national and state level planning and policy formulation is quite well recognized in any country which attempts at achieving sustainability in human development and improving the quality of life. Population projection exercises are basically a part of forecasting growth of human population in the future years over a time horizon. There are various means of extrapolating past trend of change in human population over the future years. These means are determined by the assumptions that are made on the determinants of population change such as time, pattern of changes in fertility, mortality, and migration and other associated factors. The success of population projection depends not only on the technique of projection but also on the proximity of the assumptions to reality so that changes in the future years get estimated with least possible errors. Projections, however, might not suffice when there are significant deviations from the assumption that prevailing conditions would continue unchanged in the future. Also, the projection might not be satisfactory due to failure to incorporate adequately the changes in the policy parameters, technological changes, changes in the migration pattern, etc. Forecasting attempts at overcoming these drawbacks by incorporating the elements of judgment in the projection exercise. Forecasting enjoys the advantage of being based upon one or more assumptions that are likely to be realized in the future years. Thus, forecasts give more realistic picture of the future.
 Title
 Projection of Indian Population by Using Leslie Matrix with Changing Age Specific Mortality Rate, Age Specific Fertility Rate and Age Specific Marital Fertility Rate
 Book Title
 Advances in Growth Curve Models
 Book Subtitle
 Topics from the Indian Statistical Institute
 Pages
 pp 227240
 Copyright
 2013
 DOI
 10.1007/9781461468622_13
 Print ISBN
 9781461468615
 Online ISBN
 9781461468622
 Series Title
 Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics
 Series Volume
 46
 Series ISSN
 21941009
 Publisher
 Springer New York
 Copyright Holder
 Springer Science+Business Media New York
 Additional Links
 Topics
 Industry Sectors
 eBook Packages
 Editors

 Ratan Dasgupta ^{(1)}
 Editor Affiliations

 1. Indian Statistical Institute Professor, StatMath Unit
 Authors

 Prasanta Pathak ^{(2)}
 Vivek Verma ^{(2)}
 Author Affiliations

 2. Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, India
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